2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTEX score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:04 · Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti Foreman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:03: Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 80 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +8.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:31: Tyrone Swoopes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +14.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:46: Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 6 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +16.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:46: Trent Domingue kickoff for 19 yds — KSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 5:55TEX 4th & 18 at KSU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it36.7%−0.213% to convertField goal36.9%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call37.0%average punt
- Q1 4:22KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt62.7%−0.8average punt
- Q2 12:02TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.9%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.0%average punt
- Q2 11:07KSU 4th & 22 at KSU 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it69.6%−3.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
- Q2 4:23KSU 4th & 2 at TEX 45, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it76.8%57% to convertField goal74.3%−2.525% to makePuntTheir call75.2%−1.6average punt
- Q3 7:38TEX 4th & 3 at KSU 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.9%52% to convertField goal16.3%−0.764% to makePunt11.2%−5.8average punt
- Q3 4:30KSU 4th & 3 at TEX 18, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snapGo for it88.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call88.3%−0.679% to makePunt82.0%−6.9average punt
- Q4 13:06KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt83.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 8:04TEX 4th & 16 at KSU 42, down 10Close callWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.8%−0.716% to convertField goal10.2%−0.330% to makePunt10.5%average punt
- Q4 4:03TEX 4th & 18 at KSU 18, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snapGo for it8.6%11% to convertField goalTheir call7.9%−0.779% to makePunt6.2%−2.4average punt
- Q4 2:53KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 28, up 10Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.8%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 9:23KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.3%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:32KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:03TEX Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.5%97% to makeGo for two30.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two79.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:31TEX Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two14.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:46TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%−1.597% to makeGo for two8.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKSUDrive 1TD15 plays · 68 yds · 5:2649% → 53%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
49.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dalton Risner) to the KanSt 22Similar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+31
49.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 31 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
49.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Charles Omenihu) to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
49.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
50.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Breckyn Hager) to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
50.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT13 plays · 56 yds · 3:0547% → 45%
Q1 7:59
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
52.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+7
52.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-9
53.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by Kyle Ball for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD16 plays · 80 yds · 7:1455% → 67%
Q1 5:16
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
54.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 6 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
54.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 5 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
55.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 2 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
57.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 9 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
58.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 12 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
58.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the Texas 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0836% → 35%
Q2 12:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
65.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 0:4967% → 66%
Q2 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-12
66.7%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Breckyn Hager for a loss of 12 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4635% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT12 plays · 45 yds · 5:1769% → 70%
TEXDrive 8TD2 plays · 90 yds · 0:0729% → 37%
KSUDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3864% → 78%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
64.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
66.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 8 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
67.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Dayton Valentine) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 15
50
+14
66.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 14 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
68.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (John Bonney) to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
68.1%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Timothy Cole for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+15
66.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 7 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Bryce Cottrell) to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
78.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5223% → 23%
KSUDrive 12FUMBLE7 plays · 65 yds · 3:1680% → 84%
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
79.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 7 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
81.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 6 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+5
84.1%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds Charles Jones fumbled, forced by Anthony Wheeler, recovered by Texas Dylan Haines in the end zone, touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 54 yds · 2:0119% → 19%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
80.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 10 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
80.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 11 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
79.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+20
78.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the KANSASST 48 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Donnie Starks) to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14FG8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5685% → 91%
TEXDrive 15TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4910% → 23%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
90.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 7 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
90.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
90.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
90.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 7 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16INT13 plays · 36 yds · 5:2082% → 86%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
84.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Dominique Heath) to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
84.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 4 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+33
85.8%
Jesse Ertz pass intercepted Edwin Freeman return for 33 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2315% → 10%
Q4 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-10
85.5%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 42 Shane Buechele fumbled, forced by Jordan Willis, recovered by Texas Shane Buechele , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3191% → 92%
TEXDrive 19MISSED FG9 plays · 35 yds · 2:5211% → 7%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
89.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
90.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 9 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+23
89.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 23 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4793% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD9 plays · 57 yds · 2:004% → 21%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
96.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DJ Reed) to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
96.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 13
OPP 45
+15
96.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Duke Shelley) to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+20
95.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to D'Onta Foreman for 20 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 6 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:46
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 6 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 0:31
Tyrone Swoopes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q2 0:09
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+11.4