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KSU

Kansas State 17 at Oklahoma 38

OU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:03 · Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 40 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the KanSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+22.2Home team on offense+7.9Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:28: Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:39: Joe Mixon pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:08: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:40: Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 54 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:31: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 88 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +5.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:07KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:10KSU 4th & 4 at OU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:41KSU 4th & 6 at OU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:03OU 4th & 10 at OU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:40KSU 4th & 15 at KSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:16OU 4th & 5 at KSU 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:32KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:28OU 4th & 10 at OU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:52KSU 4th & 2 at OU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:44KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00OU 4th & 6 at KSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:46OU 4th & 5 at OU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:42KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:53KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:15OU 4th & 16 at OU 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:24OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:00OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:28KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:39OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:40KSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:31OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:2284% → 84%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.4%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
84.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
84.2%
Samaje Perine run for 7 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
84.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+20
84.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 20 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
84.1%
Perine, Samaje rush for 12 yards to the KANSASST13, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Brown, Orlando) 10 yards to the KANSASST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+10
84.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to A.D. Miller for 10 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
84.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0916% → 16%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
84.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
84.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 49 yds , Dede Westbrook returns for 4 yds to the Okla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:5884% → 86%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
84.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
84.2%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
84.1%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
84.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+12
84.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 12 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
84.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 10 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
84.3%
Joe Mixon run for 13 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.4%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the KanSt 19Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
84.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
84.1%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.3%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the KanSt 8Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4TD
21 plays · 89 yds · 8:2715% → 18%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
85.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+13
85.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 13 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
85.5%
Justin Silmon run for 14 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
85.4%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-5
85.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Dalton Risner) to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+14
85.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 14 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
85.5%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
85.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 8 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
85.0%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Pringle, Byron, PENALTY KANSASST illegal formation 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
85.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+8
85.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+9
85.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 9 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
85.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the Okla 18Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+5
85.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 5 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+7
85.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 7 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
85.0%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd to the Okla 5Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
85.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the Okla 2Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3783% → 89%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
83.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 19 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
84.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 18 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
84.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+8
84.3%
Joe Mixon run for 8 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
88.6%
Joe Mixon pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3414% → 15%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+20
86.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 20 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
86.1%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+6
86.4%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
86.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
84.9%
Matthew McCrane 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3186% → 86%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 15 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.6%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
86.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jarvis BaxterSimilar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
86.0%
Baker Mayfield run for no gain to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 40 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0314% → 13%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
86.1%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Zach Reuter for 12 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Byron Pringle for 4 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
86.3%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
86.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 3 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
86.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 1 yd to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-6
86.4%
Joe Hubener sacked by Matt Romar for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:1687% → 90%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
87.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 22 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
87.7%
Joe Mixon run for 22 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
88.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 4 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
88.4%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-1
88.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 17Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
89.6%
Austin Seibert 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0111% → 11%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
89.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1811% → 11%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
88.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Winston DimelSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
88.9%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
89.1%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 14:32
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+40
89.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds , Dede Westbrook returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5990% → 89%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
89.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 11 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.9%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 49Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
89.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
89.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
88.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dominique Heath at the KanSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:2911% → 13%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
89.0%
Charles Jones run for 10 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
89.1%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
88.5%
Winston Dimel run for 3 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
88.8%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete to Pringle, Byron, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Thomas, Jordan) 15 yards to the KANSASST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.4%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+16
88.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 16 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.0%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
88.1%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
87.9%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
87.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5889% → 91%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
89.2%
Joe Mixon run for 8 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
89.9%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 40Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
89.4%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
90.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 2
50
+1
90.9%
Abdul Adams run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+14
90.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 14 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
91.2%
Abdul Adams run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
91.3%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted Duke Shelley return for no gain to the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5611% → 10%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.3%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
89.9%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-5
90.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Joe Hubener) to the KanSt 12Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
90.2%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Charles JonesSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
90.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds, downed at the Okla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:3292% → 99%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
91.5%
Joe Mixon run for 14 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
91.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 8 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
91.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-4
91.6%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+20
91.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 20 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
94.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 4 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
94.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Abdul Adams for 2 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
98.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:162% → 9%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
98.0%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+11
98.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 11 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-12
98.2%
Joe Hubener sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 12 yards to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 22
OWN 19
0
98.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 22
OWN 19
+26
98.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Byron Pringle for 26 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
98.5%
Joe Hubener run for 4 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-5
98.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Terrale Johnson) to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+54
91.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 54 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4495% → 97%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.9%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
95.1%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
95.4%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 38Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
97.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to A.D. Miller for 2 yds A.D. Miller fumbled, forced by DJ Reed, recovered by OklaSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
97.3%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
97.2%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dominique Heath at the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:587% → 6%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
93.0%
Justin Silmon run for 15 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
92.9%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 7 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+8
92.5%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
92.3%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
92.3%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
93.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
93.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
99.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 88 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Byron Pringle for 13 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.2%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-5
99.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Byron Pringle) to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 4:27100% → 100%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.7%
Abdul Adams run for 4 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
99.7%
Abdul Adams run for 1 yd to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 7 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-2
99.8%
Abdul Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-10
99.8%
Adams, Abdul rush for 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA49, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Wren, Erick) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 18
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Abdul Adams run for 2 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Austin Seibert punt for 52 yds, downed at the KanSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.4%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:40
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 54 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q4 6:31
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 88 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 1:08
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com