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TTU

Texas Tech 38 at Kansas State 44

KSU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:44 · Michael Barden punt for 45 yds, downed at the KanSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Garbage-time factor+2.3Score differential+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:47: Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +12.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Clayton Hatfield kickoff for 64 yds , Byron Pringle return for 99 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:07: Charles Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +19.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:05: Matthew McCrane 25 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:05: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 15 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +17.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q2 14:09KSU 4th & 2 at TTU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−2.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:43KSU 4th & 1 at TTU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−8.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:35TTU 4th & 26 at TTU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:55KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:44TTU 4th & 2 at KSU 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−11.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:15KSU 4th & 20 at KSU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−4.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:17TTU 4th & 1 at KSU 16, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%−3.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−12.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:11KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:00TTU 4th & 7 at KSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−2.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:44TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:05KSU 4th & 8 at TTU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:01TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 21, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56KSU 4th & 15 at TTU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:48TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:28KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:19KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:38TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:19TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:43KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:47TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:07KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:05TTU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 5.8 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%−5.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 5:1230% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
70.4%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 3 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+14
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 14 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 4 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-15
70.4%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Stockton, J. for no gain to the KS42 (Shelley, Duke), PENALTY TTU personal foul (Sadler, Ian) 15 yards to the TTU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 43
+10
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 10 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+41
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 41 yds to the KanSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
70.4%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the KanSt 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.4%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Cantrell, Dylan, PENALTY KS DPI (Shelley, Duke) 1 yards to the KS1, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.4%
Demarcus Felton run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1268% → 70%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
67.9%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
68.2%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
68.3%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-2
68.4%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+25
68.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 10 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
68.6%
Charles Jones run for 12 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
69.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3INT TD
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0932% → 28%
Q1 6:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
68.5%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
68.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
68.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 8 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-13
68.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 2 yds to the KANSASST 49 TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 23
OWN 36
+35
71.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted for a TD DJ Reed return for 35 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4128% → 33%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.7%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
71.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 2 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+61
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 61 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2369% → 69%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
69.1%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
68.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+27
67.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 27 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Thierry NguemaSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+26
69.5%
Charles Jones run for 26 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
69.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+1
69.7%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
69.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
69.1%
Matthew McCrane 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4231% → 38%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
68.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
68.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
67.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+25
67.5%
Cameron Batson pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 25 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
66.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 1 yd to the KanSt 20Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
66.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
61.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 16 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:3064% → 70%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
63.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+21
65.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 21 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
65.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 3 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
65.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 8 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
66.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 12 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
66.4%
Dalvin Warmack run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+16
66.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 16 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
66.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
66.4%
Dalvin Warmack run for 3 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
65.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 4 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.5%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5132% → 48%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
68.3%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+39
68.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 39 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
66.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
65.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
65.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 6 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
65.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 6 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
65.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 4 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
65.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+8
65.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
65.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:5232% → 31%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
67.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 26 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
65.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
66.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+4
66.9%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-15
66.9%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 15 yards to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 26
OWN 33
0
69.0%
Michael Barden punt for 59 yds, downed at the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
66.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
69.0%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
68.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Paul Banks IIISimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+6
67.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 6 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
67.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13DOWNS
16 plays · 77 yds · 4:1732% → 35%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
68.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin Lauderdale, broken up by DJ ReedSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
69.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 11 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
67.3%
Quinton White Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+8
66.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 8 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
65.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
64.4%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
64.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 22 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
63.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 3 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
63.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Demarcus Felton, broken up by Reggie WalkerSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+9
64.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 9 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
63.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
63.5%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-15
63.8%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Cantrell, Dylan for 6 yards to the KS0, clock 09:44, PENALTY TTU OPI (Cantrell, Dylan) 15 yards to the KS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+18
65.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 18 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
65.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin Lauderdale, broken up by Duke Shelley TEXAS TECH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+14
68.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 14 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
69.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 14 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
69.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Gary MooreSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-10
67.7%
Ertz, Jesse rush for 22 yards to the TTU46 (Allen, Kisean), PENALTY KS holding (Beecham, Abdul) 10 yards to the KS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 20
OWN 22
0
67.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
66.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:1835% → 43%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
65.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 20 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
63.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 16 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
61.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 6 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
61.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 2 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
63.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the KanSt 16Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+34
56.8%
Clayton Hatfield 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
62.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
64.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
63.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Jah'Shawn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+14
61.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 54 yds , Keke Coutee returns for 14 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:3742% → 44%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
58.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 31 yds to the KANSASST 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Dylan Cantrell) to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
54.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
55.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 5
50
+6
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
53.7%
Quinton White Jr. run for 3 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
52.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
53.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-12
56.2%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 12 yards to the TexTc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3666% → 87%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
65.9%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+4
66.1%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
66.0%
Charles Jones run for 12 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
67.4%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
67.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+11
64.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 11 yds to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
67.2%
Charles Jones run for 13 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.0%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2318% → 16%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
80.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
81.0%
Demarcus Felton run for no gain to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
84.5%
Michael Barden punt for 45 yds, downed at the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 6:2887% → 97%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
86.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 10 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
86.8%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
87.7%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
86.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+31
87.5%
Charles Jones run for 31 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
88.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+16
88.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 16 yds to the TexTc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
87.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
86.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Terrale Johnson) to the TexTc 8Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q4 6:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
96.5%
Matthew McCrane 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:566% → 5%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
94.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
93.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-9
94.2%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
95.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by Elijah LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:1798% → 99%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
97.7%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-1
97.7%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-1
97.6%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 10
OPP 20
-5
97.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
99.0%
Matthew McCrane 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:512% → 19%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 6 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
98.3%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Giles, Jonathan (Barnett, Dante), PENALTY KS DPI (Barnett, Dante) 14 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
50
0
98.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
50
0
98.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Ian Sadler, broken up by Dante BarnettSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 10
50
-6
98.4%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 16
OWN 44
+15
98.6%
Mahomes, P. pass intercepted by Reed, D.J. at the KS19, Reed, D.J. return to the KS35, PENALTY KS DPI (Reed, D.J.) 15 yards to the KS41, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
98.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 13 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
97.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Justin Murphy) to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+18
98.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 18 yds to the KanSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
80.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 15 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:07
Charles Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q4 0:05
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 15 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-17.3
TD · Q2 1:31
Clayton Hatfield kickoff for 64 yds , Byron Pringle return for 99 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com