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KSU

Kansas State 16 at West Virginia 17

WVU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:55 · Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton Gibson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−2.5Pregame prior+12.3Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:10: Matthew McCrane 31 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:37: Matthew McCrane 22 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:41: Justin Crawford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +18.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:11: Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +36.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 22 — WVU win probability +16.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:04KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:33WVU 4th & 7 at KSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55WVU 4th & 7 at KSU 31, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:09KSU 4th & 2 at WVU 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:26WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:22KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:35WVU 4th & 8 at KSU 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:10KSU 4th & 9 at WVU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:41WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:24WVU 4th & 7 at KSU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−5.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:37KSU 4th & 5 at WVU 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−11.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:55WVU 4th & 6 at KSU 20, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:48KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−2.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00WVU 4th & 6 at KSU 17, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:49WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:18KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−3.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:03KSU 4th & 12 at WVU 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−14.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−22.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:41KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:41WVU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:11WVU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5134% → 34%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
66.2%
Justin Silmon run for 6 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+13
66.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 13 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
65.9%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-6
65.9%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 18
OWN 34
0
66.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Justin SilmonSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+4
66.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 43 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 4 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2266% → 66%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
65.9%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 26Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+46
65.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 46 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
66.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 5 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
66.3%
Skyler Howard run for 7 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
66.3%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
66.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for no gain to the KanSt 13Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+5
66.2%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-5
65.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 13Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
65.6%
Josh Lambert 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4535% → 34%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.3%
Byron Pringle run for 5 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
65.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 20Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
65.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
65.6%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gary Jennings at the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.7%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted Elijah Lee return for no gain to the WVirg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:1936% → 41%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.1%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the WVirg 48Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
64.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+18
64.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 18 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+26
63.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 26 yds to the WVirg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.2%
Winston Dimel run for 2 yds to the WVirg 2Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.5%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6DOWNS
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:2560% → 59%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
60.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Marcus Simms for 2 yds to the WVirg 11Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+15
60.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 15 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.4%
Justin Crawford run for no gain to the WVirg 26Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
59.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 10 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
60.3%
Justin Crawford run for 7 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+11
61.0%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 11 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
60.6%
Justin Crawford run for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
60.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+9
60.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 9 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
60.9%
Justin Crawford run for 3 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
60.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Marcus SimmsSimilar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
60.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
59.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:3942% → 45%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
57.6%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
56.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 11 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
56.3%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Pringle, Byron, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (Tyler, Jeremy) 15 yards to the WESTVIR38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
56.0%
Charles Jones run for 9 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
55.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the WVirg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
55.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Jesse Ertz) to the WVirg 33Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+13
54.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 13 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
54.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
55.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
54.8%
Matthew McCrane 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3454% → 51%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
53.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 6 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
53.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for 5 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
53.6%
Rushel Shell run for 6 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-5
53.8%
Skyler Howard sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 40Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+1
51.9%
Skyler Howard run for 1 yd to the WVirg 41Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
51.2%
Billy Kinney punt for 46 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3747% → 46%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
53.1%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
53.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
53.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+1
53.6%
Nick Walsh punt for 50 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 1 yd to the WVirg 16 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:4251% → 49%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
50.6%
Justin Crawford run for 14 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
50.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 6 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+12
50.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 12 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
51.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
50.8%
Justin Crawford run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
50.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Justin CrawfordSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
49.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 37 yds, downed at the KanSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:1751% → 62%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
49.4%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+18
49.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for 18 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
48.1%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the KanSt 22Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+52
45.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 37 yds to the WESTVIR 41 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Noble Nwachukwu) to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
45.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the WVirg 25Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
45.1%
Dalvin Warmack run for 6 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
44.7%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the WVirg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
43.4%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 18Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+4
42.6%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
42.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
37.9%
Matthew McCrane 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1940% → 39%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
39.7%
Skyler Howard sacked by Elijah Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 23Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
39.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Rushel ShellSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
38.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Elijah Wellman for 4 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
38.8%
Billy Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dominique Heath at the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3463% → 65%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
37.4%
Charles Jones run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
50
0
34.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
50
+2
34.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-12
34.7%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Justin Arndt for a loss of 12 yards to the WESTVIR 40 KANSAS ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jesse Ertz) to the KanSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:3139% → 39%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 6 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
39.7%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+31
38.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 31 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
40.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 9 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+6
42.1%
Rushel Shell run for 6 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
42.0%
Skyler Howard sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+3
40.3%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+12
37.2%
Rushel Shell run for 12 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 2
OPP 15
-5
37.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Adam Pankey) to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
39.2%
Josh Lambert 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:2363% → 74%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
37.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+20
37.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 20 yds to the WVirg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
36.7%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the WVirg 16Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
36.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+9
36.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds to the WVirg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
35.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 4 yds to the WVirg 3Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.2%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the WVirg 2Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
35.8%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 5 Jesse Ertz fumbled, recovered by KanSt Charles JonesSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
25.6%
Matthew McCrane 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16FUMBLE
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:0032% → 33%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
31.6%
Justin Crawford run for 10 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
32.1%
Justin Crawford run for 3 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
32.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 12 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
33.2%
Justin Crawford run for 16 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
35.4%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
33.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
31.2%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+17
29.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 17 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
32.8%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the KanSt 2 Rushel Shell fumbled, forced by Reggie Walker, recovered by KanSt Kendall AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2976% → 79%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
23.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 5 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+3
22.5%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+12
21.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 12 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
20.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
20.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-2
20.6%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Noble Nwachukwu for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 12
OWN 20
-9
21.0%
Nick Walsh punt for 44 yds , Gary Jennings returns for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5825% → 43%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+52
24.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 52 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
28.4%
Justin Crawford run for 6 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-2
28.2%
Justin Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
25.9%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Justin CrawfordSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+7
22.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 7 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
25.0%
Justin Crawford run for 9 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.4%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19INT
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:4066% → 71%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
34.2%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
34.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
34.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+16
35.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 16 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
29.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
29.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Terrale Johnson) to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
29.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
29.3%
Jesse Ertz pass intercepted Rasul Douglas return for no gain to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4737% → 34%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
36.9%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
36.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 4 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
35.2%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Rushel ShellSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
34.3%
Billy Kinney punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2571% → 68%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
29.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-8
30.4%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Kyzir White for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+8
31.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 8 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
32.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 31 yds, downed at the WVirg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:5838% → 74%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
37.8%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the WVirg 44Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+21
35.3%
Justin Crawford run for 21 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
40.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Justin CrawfordSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
39.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 13 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
38.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
38.5%
Justin Crawford run for 2 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
35.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 9 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
38.2%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
74.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 4:0241% → 26%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
58.9%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-1
58.0%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+19
60.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 19 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
55.4%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
52.8%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
61.1%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.4%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the WVirg 24Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
66.6%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 26Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
70.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
74.5%
Matthew McCrane 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4571% → 92%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
70.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 20Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 16
OWN 20
-1
75.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 19Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+5
75.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WVirg 24Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-2
92.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:11
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+36.2
TD · Q4 13:41
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+18.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 22
+16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com