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MOST

Missouri State 0 at Kansas State 35

KSU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Matthew McCrane 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 9:10: Timeout KANSAS ST, clock 09:10 — MOST win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 9:02: Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q1 0:25: Timeout MISSOURI ST, clock 00:25 — MOST win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:27: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:01: Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MOST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:02KSU 4th & 1 at MOST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:55MOST 4th & 1 at MOST 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:25MOST 4th & 1 at KSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09MOST 4th & 10 at MOST 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:27MOST 4th & 12 at MOST 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:55MOST 4th & 5 at MOST 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:34MOST 4th & 12 at MOST 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 35, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:02KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:22KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:27KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:01KSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:37KSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:58100% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.5%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
99.5%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
99.5%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
99.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 16 yds to the MoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
99.5%
Charles Jones run for 10 yds to the MoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 9 yds to the MoSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+12
99.5%
Justin Silmon run for 12 yds to the MoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.5%
Winston Dimel run for 2 yds to the MoSt 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.5%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd to the MoSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.5%
Winston Dimel run for no gain to the MoSt 1Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.2%
Deion Holliman run for no gain to the MoSt 17Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.2%
Calan Crowder run for 3 yds to the MoSt 20Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+6
99.2%
Brodie Lambert run for 6 yds to the MoSt 26Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+11
99.2%
Zach Drake punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 41 , Dominique Heath returns for 11 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Dalvin Warmack run for 5 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+35
99.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 35 yds to the MoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4FUMBLE
13 plays · 40 yds · 4:571% → 1%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Malik EarlSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Brodie Lambert run for 7 yds to the MoSt 32Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.1%
Michael Briggs run for 4 yds to the MoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.1%
Calan Crowder run for 3 yds to the MoSt 39Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
Brodie Lambert run for 4 yds to the MoSt 43Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.1%
Nick Masoner run for 4 yds to the MoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.1%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Zac Hoover, PENALTY KS DPI (Shelley, Duke) 14 yards to the KS39, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.1%
Calan Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+8
99.1%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Deion Holliman for 8 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
99.1%
Michael Briggs run for 3 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+7
98.9%
Brodie Lambert run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 42 Brodie Lambert fumbled, recovered by KanSt Jordan Willis , return for 7 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.0%
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-6
99.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MoSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Michael Briggs pass incomplete to Deion HollimanSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Michael Briggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Michael Briggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+43
98.9%
Zach Drake punt for 44 yds , Byron Pringle returns for 43 yds to the MoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.0%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the MoSt 19Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
99.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 10 yds to the MoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Phoenix Johnson run for no gain to the MoSt 35Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.3%
Phoenix Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MoSt 33Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Michael Briggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 12
OWN 33
-6
99.3%
Zach Drake punt for 51 yds , Dominique Heath returns for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:4899% → 100%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
99.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 11 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.3%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
99.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 10 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
99.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 20 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
99.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 40 yds to the MoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.3%
Winston Dimel run for 3 yds to the MoSt 1Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.7%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Phoenix Johnson for 9 yds to the MoSt 26Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-4
99.7%
Phoenix Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MoSt 22Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Malik EarlSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Zach Drake punt blocked by Jayd Kirby blocked by Jayd KirbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.7%
Winston Dimel run for 7 yds to the MoSt 5Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Winston Dimel run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Zac Hoover for 7 yds to the MoSt 23Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Zac Hoover run for no gain to the MoSt 23Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+11
99.8%
Malik Earl run for 11 yds to the MoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Malik Earl, broken up by DJ ReedSimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.8%
Brodie Lambert run for a loss of 4 yards to the MoSt 32 Brodie Lambert fumbled, recovered by MoSt Brodie Lambert , return for 2 yds to the MoSt 32Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Zac HooverSimilar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+13
99.8%
Zach Drake punt for 51 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 13 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dayton Valentine for 2 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalvin WarmackSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 3 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 30 yds , Deion Holliman returns for no gain to the MoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Michael Briggs pass intercepted Matt Seiwert return for no gain to the MoSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the MoSt 30Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-10
99.8%
Delton, Alex rush for no gain to the MSU30 (Anthny Upchurch), PENALTY KS holding (Risner, Dalton) 10 yards to the MSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+15
99.8%
Alex Delton run for 15 yds to the MoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Darius DanielSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+42
99.8%
Matthew McCrane 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:27
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+0.4
KEY PLAY · Q1 9:10
Timeout KANSAS ST, clock 09:10
-0.3
TD · Q2 7:01
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com