2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:40 · Cole Moos punt for 43 yds, downed at the WVirg 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:27: Skyler Howard 33 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick) — WVU win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:04: Daikiel Shorts 7 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Mike Molina Kick) — WVU win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Shelton Gibson 19 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Mike Molina Kick) — WVU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:01: Ke'aun Kinner 2 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick) — KU win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:41: Justin Crawford 27 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick) — WVU win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 13:19WVU 4th & 10 at KU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%79% to makePunt96.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:15WVU 4th & 23 at midfield, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q1 6:54KU 4th & 2 at KU 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 6:10WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q1 3:57KU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it5.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:15KU 4th & 3 at KU 49, down 10Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it5.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:12WVU 4th & 1 at KU 1, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.4%59% to convertField goal93.9%−0.594% to makePunt92.6%−1.9average punt
- Q2 9:40KU 4th & 3 at KU 9, down 10Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.2%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:59KU 4th & 2 at WVU 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.2%57% to convertField goal3.9%−0.358% to makePunt2.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 1:32KU 4th & 8 at KU 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 13:20KU 4th & 5 at KU 35, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 7:55KU 4th & 6 at WVU 27, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.4%62% to makePunt0.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:49WVU 4th & 7 at KU 10, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%88% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:53WVU 4th & 3 at KU 22, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%52% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−0.172% to makePunt98.6%−0.5average punt
- Q4 4:55WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 27, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:59KU 4th & 4 at WVU 41, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.148% to convertField goal0.1%32% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:20WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:27WVU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:04WVU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40WVU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:01KU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:41WVU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:44WVU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:02KU Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:46KU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1FG6 plays · 42 yds · 1:3197% → 97%
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+40
97.0%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 40 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2INT10 plays · 18 yds · 2:453% → 4%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 19 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
96.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 3 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
96.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 5 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
96.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 4 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
96.5%
Kinner, Ke'aun rush for 6 yards to the WESTVIR38, PENALTY KANSAS holding (Adeniji, Hakeem) 10 yards to the KANSAS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 25
OWN 41
+2
96.5%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 2 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 23
OWN 43
0
96.4%
Montell Cozart pass intercepted Rasul Douglas return for no gain to the WVirg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5796% → 96%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
96.4%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to White, Ka'Raun, PENALTY KANSAS pass interference (Stewart, Brandon) 15 yards to the KANSAS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-8
96.1%
Skyler Howard sacked by Isaiah Bean for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 23
50
0
96.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:074% → 4%
WVUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2896% → 96%
Q1 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
95.5%
Billy Kinney punt for 46 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:044% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD5 plays · 77 yds · 1:2695% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:504% → 5%
Q1 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+15
95.6%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Al-Rasheed Benton) to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
95.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9DOWNS11 plays · 93 yds · 3:5595% → 95%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
95.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 7 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+18
95.4%
Kennedy McKoy run for 8 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Daniel Wise) to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:265% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11TD4 plays · 52 yds · 1:0695% → 97%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
94.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 4 yds to the WESTVIR 48 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ka'Raun White) to the WVirg 42Similar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 16
OWN 42
+14
94.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 14 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+11
94.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 11 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 47 yds · 2:204% → 4%
WVUDrive 13TD9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4797% → 98%
Q2 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
97.0%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to Gibson, Shelton, PENALTY KANSAS pass interference (Ogletree, Marnez) 14 yards to the KANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q2 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Kans 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 2 yds to the Kans 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD6 plays · 56 yds · 0:4699% → 100%
KUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:231% → 0%
Q3 13:20
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+8
99.6%
Cole Moos punt for 51 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 8 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
KUDrive 19TD5 plays · 29 yds · 1:300% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1398% → 100%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
98.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 13 yds to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21FUMBLE8 plays · 42 yds · 1:380% → 0%
WVUDrive 22TD5 plays · 67 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 18 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+17
99.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 17 yds Ka'Raun White fumbled, forced by Denzel Feaster, recovered by WVirg Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+9
99.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 9 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23TD10 plays · 74 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+14
99.9%
Stanley, Carter pass incomplete to Barbel, Shakiem, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (White, Kyzir) 14 yards to the WESTVIR45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSAS.Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr., broken up by Elijah BattleSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.8%
Taylor Martin 45 Yd pass from Carter Stanley (Matthew Wyman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.9%
Kennedy McKoy run for 7 yds to the WESTVIR 48 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcell Lazard) to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+22
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 22 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to Wesco, Trevon, PENALTY WESTVIR ineligible downfield on pass (McKivitz, Colton) 5 yards to the KANSAS18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25TD4 plays · 80 yds · 0:540% → 1%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
99.9%
Steven Sims Jr. pass complete to Michael Zunica for 40 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 14 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 15 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.1%
Steven Sims Jr. 11 Yd pass from Carter Stanley (Matthew Wyman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 26FG7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3399% → 100%
KUDrive 27INT8 plays · 55 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Michael Zunica for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+32
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 32 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass intercepted, touchback. Rasul Douglas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
KUDrive 29DOWNS6 plays · 35 yds · 2:430% → 0%
WVUDrive 30END OF GAME3 plays · 5 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:27
Skyler Howard 33 Yd Run (Mike Molina Kick)
+2.4
TD · Q3 11:01
Ke'aun Kinner 2 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)
-1.5
TD · Q2 3:04
Daikiel Shorts 7 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Mike Molina Kick)
+1.4