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TCU

TCU 24 at Kansas 23

KU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 14 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 197Pregame prior−0.8Home team on offense−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:31: Kenny Hill run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:01: Matthew Wyman 21 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +9.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:29: Ryan Willis run for 21 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +22.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:54: Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +22.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:21: Brandon Hatfield 34 yd FG GOOD KANSAS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined — TCU win probability +33.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:23KU 4th & 1 at KU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:02TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:11TCU 4th & 3 at KU 20, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00KU 4th & 9 at KU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:32TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:00TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:48KU 4th & 6 at TCU 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39KU 4th & 10 at KU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:02KU 4th & 4 at TCU 12, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:02TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:01KU 4th & 4 at TCU 4, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:01TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:42KU 4th & 7 at KU 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−2.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:25KU 4th & 10 at TCU 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−3.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−18.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:25TCU 4th & 4 at KU 49, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:45KU 4th & 5 at TCU 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−21.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:21TCU 4th & 2 at KU 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−16.7
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−34.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:40KU 4th & 22 at KU 31, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 3.5 ptsWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−3.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:02KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:59TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:29KU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:54TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
4.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 7 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
4.5%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
4.5%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
4.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 7 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+7
4.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 7 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
4.5%
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-4
4.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Taylor Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+35
4.5%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Nick Orr return for 35 yds to the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
5.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Kans 44Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
5.3%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Brandon Stewart return for no gain to the Kans 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
5.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the Kans 39Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
5.5%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+9
5.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 9 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
5.5%
Cole Moos punt for 49 yds , Desmon White returns for 2 yds to the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
5.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 10 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
5.8%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+3
5.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+34
5.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 34 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
5.6%
Kenny Hill sacked by Dorance Armstrong Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 44 Kenny Hill fumbled, recovered by Kans Damani Mosby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:347% → 9%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
6.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
6.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
6.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem BarbelSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
6.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Keegan Brewer for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+14
6.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 14 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
6.6%
Taylor Martin run for 6 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
6.6%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
6.5%
Willis, Ryan pass incomplete to Barbel, Shakiem, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Orr, Nick) 9 yards to the TCU3, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
6.6%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.6%
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.3%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
8.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Derrick Green, broken up by Keith Loneker Jr.Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
8.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
8.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
8.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 33Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
8.7%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+19
8.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 19 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
9.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
9.0%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Travin Howard return for 5 yds to the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4091% → 89%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
9.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 9 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+12
9.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 12 yds to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
8.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 1 yd to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+7
8.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 2
OPP 0
0
9.1%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY KU holding off-setting, PENALTY TCU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-1
9.1%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 20Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
10.8%
Brandon Hatfield 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:1111% → 12%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
11.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 2 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
11.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 7 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
12.1%
Maciah Long run for 1 yd to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
12.2%
Ryan Willis run for 12 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
12.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-4
12.7%
Ryan Willis sacked by Aaron Curry for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+2
12.1%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
11.9%
Cole Moos punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
13.9%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-10
13.5%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 15 yards to the TCU46 (Lee, Mike), PENALTY TCU holding (Iwuagwu, Cordel) 10 yards to the TCU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+9
14.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
14.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
14.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 56 yds, downed at the Kans 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-7
16.4%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 3 Ryan Willis fumbled, forced by Mat Boesen, recovered by TCU Chris BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
13.1%
Taylor Martin run for 3 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
13.0%
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd to the Kans 21Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+7
12.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 7 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+31
13.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 31 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
14.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Chris Bradley and Mat Boesen for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
13.6%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Nick Orr return for no gain to the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3387% → 86%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
13.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
13.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+3
13.8%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+32
14.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the KANSAS 33 TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3117% → 20%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
16.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+9
16.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 9 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
16.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
17.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez, broken up by James McFarlandSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-5
16.5%
Willis, Ryan pass complete to Gonzalez, L. for 13 yards to the TCU21 (Howard, Travin;Small, Niko), PENALTY KU ineligible downfield on pass (Gibson, Joe) 5 yards to the TCU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+6
15.7%
Ryan Willis run for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
19.9%
Matthew Wyman 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:1082% → 89%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
17.9%
Hicks, Kyle rush for no gain to the TCU36, out-of-bounds (Ogletree, M.), PENALTY TCU holding (Noteboom, J.) 10 yards to the TCU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+14
18.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 14 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
17.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
17.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
17.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+34
17.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 18 yds to the KANSAS 34 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Damani Mosby) to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
11.4%
Kenny Hill run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:5214% → 14%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.7%
Denzell Evans run for 3 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
13.8%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 21 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by Kans Ryan Willis , return for no gain to the Kans 21Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
13.5%
Taylor Martin run for 4 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
13.6%
Cole Moos punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
13.9%
Kenny Hill sacked by Cameron Rosser for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
15.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
15.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 16 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
14.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
13.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+3
13.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
13.7%
Hill, Kenny rush for 6 yards to the KU41, out-of-bounds (Arnick, C.), PENALTY TCU holding (Noteboom, J.) 10 yards to the TCU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
14.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Deante Gray, broken up by Fish SmithsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+6
14.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 6 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+16
15.0%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Brandon Stewart return for 16 yds to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:1620% → 24%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
19.6%
Ryan Willis run for 8 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-10
20.2%
Willis, Ryan pass complete to Taylor Martin for 40 yards to the TCU0, clock 11:41, PENALTY KU holding (Banks, D'Andre) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 12
50
+32
18.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 32 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
21.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem BarbelSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
21.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+3
20.0%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
23.6%
Matthew Wyman 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
20.9%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
21.0%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
22.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1724% → 36%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
24.0%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
24.0%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+67
23.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 67 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
28.4%
Taylor Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
28.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
26.9%
Taylor Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 4Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
36.1%
Matthew Wyman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
31.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan Austin, broken up by Brandon StewartSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
32.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
34.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.9%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
36.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 2 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+1
35.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 1 yd to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+4
34.2%
Cole Moos punt for 54 yds , Desmon White returns for 4 yds to the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
37.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 6 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
36.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 6 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
36.4%
Kenny Hill sacked by Cameron Rosser for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+20
37.8%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Greg Allen return for 20 yds to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:4447% → 69%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
46.9%
Taylor Martin run for 4 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
69.0%
Ryan Willis run for 21 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3535% → 64%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 17 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
62.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
50
0
60.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
50
-10
62.0%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 3 yards to the KU47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TCU holding (Noteboom, J.) 10 yards to the TCU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+49
66.2%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 12 yards to the Kans 25 Kenny Hill fumbled, forced by Josh Ehambe, recovered by TCU Kenny Hill for a 1ST down , return for 34 yds to the KANSAS 26 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Josh Ehambe) to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
58.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
36.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:2444% → 53%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
44.4%
Taylor Martin run for 13 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
45.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 11 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
48.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+15
48.8%
Willis, Ryan pass incomplete to Gonzalez, L., PENALTY TCU pass interference (Small, Niko) 15 yards to the TCU37, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
49.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ke'aun KinnerSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
49.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+11
49.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 11 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
50.9%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-7
50.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+5
46.1%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
53.3%
Matthew Wyman 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
49.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+19
48.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 19 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
46.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
45.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John Diarse TCU Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
48.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:5955% → 70%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
55.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Taylor Martin for 4 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
55.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem BarbelSimilar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+15
53.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 15 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
56.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
50
+6
60.6%
Taylor Martin run for 6 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+15
61.1%
Taylor Martin run for 15 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
62.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
62.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
59.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
70.0%
Matthew Wyman 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:2438% → 76%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
62.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 25 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
55.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 11 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
54.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 15 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
52.1%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 29Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+9
56.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 9 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
56.6%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds to the Kans 17 Kenny Hill fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
23.9%
Brandon Hatfield 34 yd FG GOOD KANSAS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 32MISSED FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:1941% → 31%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 9 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
45.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 9 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
45.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 38Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-8
38.3%
Ryan Willis sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 30Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+1
29.1%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 22
OWN 31
+14
28.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 14 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
39.6%
Willis, Ryan pass incomplete to Sims, Steven (Gladney, Jeff), PENALTY KU pass interference (Sims, Steven) 15 yards to the KU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 25
OWN 40
+23
33.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 23 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
39.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem BarbelSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+54
30.7%
Matthew Wyman 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
6.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:21
Brandon Hatfield 34 yd FG GOOD KANSAS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined
-33.7
TD · Q4 13:54
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 0:29
Ryan Willis run for 21 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
+22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com