Try the model
KU

Kansas 19 at Texas Tech 55

TTU
2016 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2016 · Jones AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:53 · Cole Moos punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Pregame prior+35.7Home team on offense+6.3Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:48: Derrick Willies 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:18: Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +4.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:22: Matthew Wyman 35 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +2.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:56: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED) — TTU win probability +4.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 37 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:18KU 4th & 9 at KU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55KU 4th & 11 at TTU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54KU 4th & 2 at KU 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40KU 4th & 7 at KU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47KU 4th & 12 at KU 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:53KU 4th & 5 at KU 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00KU 4th & 10 at KU 25, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:18TTU 4th & 30 at TTU 5, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:56KU 4th & 8 at KU 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00KU 4th & 9 at KU 26, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:26TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 35, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:29KU 4th & 5 at KU 49, down 22
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:05TTU 4th & 13 at KU 30, up 36
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:18TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:55TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:35TTU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:12KU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:48TTU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:18KU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:56TTU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00TTU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:41TTU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:54TTU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4295% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 11 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 26 yds to the Kans 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
94.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 18Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+4
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
94.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 14 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Marcquis RobertsSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Cole Moos punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:3095% → 95%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
94.6%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick Willies, broken up by Marnez OgletreeSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
94.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 6 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+15
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 15 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
94.6%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Willies, D., PENALTY KU pass interference (Ogletree, M.) 15 yards to the KU20, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
94.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 18 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.6%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
94.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+19
94.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 19 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
94.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Kans 44Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+8
94.5%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 8 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.5%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
94.5%
Denzell Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
94.6%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete KANSAS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+10
94.6%
Cole Moos punt for 36 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 10 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
94.6%
Demarcus Felton run for 12 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 19 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete Patrick Mahomes II fumbled,Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
94.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the Kans 45Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-6
94.7%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Dorance Armstrong Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
94.6%
Erik Baughman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Chase Harrell for 6 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
94.3%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to LaQuvionte GonzalezSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
94.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 3 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
94.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
94.2%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
94.3%
Cole Moos punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
94.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted Fish Smithson return for no gain to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
94.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
94.2%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
94.2%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Cole Moos punt for 44 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9SF
5 plays · -21 yds · 1:5294% → 94%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
94.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 3 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-7
94.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 14
OWN 17
-5
94.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 12Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 19
OWN 12
-5
94.2%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Dorance Armstrong Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 24
OWN 7
0
93.8%
Keith Loneker Jr. SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.4%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
93.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-4
93.5%
Ryan Willis sacked by Kris Williams and Kevin Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Cole Moos punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 13:35
4TH & 31
OWN 48
0
94.1%
Erik Baughman punt for 30 yds, downed at the Kans 22Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
94.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 34 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
94.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Justin Stockton) to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-1
94.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 16
OPP 37
0
94.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 16
OPP 37
-10
94.3%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Davis, Reginald for 35 yards to the KU2 (Lee, Mike), PENALTY TTU holding (Brown, Baylen) 10 yards to the KU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 26
OPP 47
-5
94.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 31
OWN 48
0
94.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Derrick NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
93.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 4 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
93.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
93.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to LaQuvionte GonzalezSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
93.7%
Cole Moos punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2695% → 96%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
94.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 3 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+15
94.5%
Mahomes, P. sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TTU34 (Armstrong, D.), PENALTY KU personal foul (Olobia, Anthony) 15 yards to the KU43, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
94.6%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
94.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 14 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.6%
Demarcus Felton run for no gain to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.1%
Devin Lauderdale 17 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:235% → 8%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ke'aun KinnerSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
95.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 23 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
94.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+15
94.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 15 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
94.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 14 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
94.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
92.5%
Chase Harrell 18 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Matthew Wyman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2494% → 97%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
94.0%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Willies, D. for 36 yards to the KU30 (Bean, Isaiah), PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Morales, Tony) 5 yards to the TTU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
93.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 10 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+8
94.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
94.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 17 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.2%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
94.2%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Coutee, Keke, PENALTY KU offside defense (Bean, Isaiah) 5 yards to the KU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
94.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
94.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
94.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 11 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.3%
Derrick Willies 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 9 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
95.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to LaQuvionte GonzalezSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to LaQuvionte GonzalezSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Cole Moos punt for 36 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 39 Cameron Batson fumbled, recovered by Kans Michael ZunicaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:165% → 9%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Taylor MartinSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
95.0%
Taylor Martin run for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
94.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.5%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez, broken up by Jordyn BrooksSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
94.6%
Taylor Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+15
95.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 15 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
92.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-21
92.6%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Cameron Rosser for a loss of 21 yards to the TexTc 5Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
92.1%
Erik Baughman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the TexTc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:119% → 10%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
91.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 4 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+20
90.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 20 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ben JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
90.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+8
91.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 8 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
90.5%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (Jacob Bragg) to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
90.5%
Ryan Willis sacked by Kris Williams for a loss of 15 yards to the TexTc 24 KANSAS Penalty, intentional grounding (Ryan Willis) to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+6
91.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 6 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
91.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ben JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
89.6%
Matthew Wyman 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2690% → 96%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+32
90.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 32 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by Mike LeeSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
91.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 15 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
91.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+12
91.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ian Sadler for 12 yds to the Kans 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
93.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 3 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-2
93.8%
Ryan Willis sacked by Kris Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 37 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by Kans Joe Gibson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
94.4%
Cole Moos punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:0396% → 99%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
96.0%
Demarcus Felton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+13
95.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 13 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
96.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+21
96.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 21 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
96.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+9
96.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 9 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
96.3%
Stockton, J. rush for 4 yards to the KU18 (Shaw, Tevin), PENALTY TTU holding (Steele, Terence) 10 yards to the KU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
96.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 20
OPP 32
-5
96.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Paul Stawarz) to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 37
+37
98.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 37 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Khalil Herbert for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
98.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 9 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-7
98.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Breiden Fehoko for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Cole Moos punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-2
99.1%
Nic Shimonek run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 9 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-5
99.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Adaryan Jones punt for 46 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+25
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 25 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to LaQuvionte GonzalezSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
99.1%
Cole Moos punt for 37 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
99.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 13 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.2%
Shimonek, Nic pass complete to Batson, Cameron for 2 yards to the TTU29 (Torneden, Bryce), PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Morales, Tony) 5 yards to the TTU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+5
99.1%
KANSAS Penalty, offside defense (Isaiah Bean) to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+42
99.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 42 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 31 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete KANSAS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Taylor Martin run for 4 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 7 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
99.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 21 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Montell Cozart pass intercepted Jah'Shawn Johnson return for no gain to the TexTc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 14 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Demarcus Felton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ian Sadler for 12 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 59 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30FUMBLE
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 8 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Carter Stanley run for 3 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Taylor Martin run for 3 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 3 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-7
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexTc Joseph WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
100.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Kans 32Similar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+6
100.0%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-4
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 30Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by Keith Loneker Jr.Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 13
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Keith Loneker Jr. run for no gain to the Kans 30Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
100.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 12 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:56
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED)
+4.7
TD · Q3 12:18
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q3 0:00
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 37 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com