2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:43 · Ollie Graybar punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RIsld 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:21: LaQuvionte Gonzalez 18 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — KU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:45: Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 35 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:36: Wesley McKoy pass complete to Aaron Parker for 23 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Justin Rohrwasser PAT BLOCKED) — URI win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:08: Taylor Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:18: Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5URI made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00KU 4th & 8 at KU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q1 11:53KU 4th & 1 at URI 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%65% to convertField goal97.3%−0.293% to makePunt96.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 6:15URI 4th & 4 at URI 21, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 4:38KU 4th & 7 at KU 38, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q1 3:16URI 4th & 6 at URI 39, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 1:30KU 4th & 6 at URI 14, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%84% to makePunt97.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 15:00URI 4th & 13 at URI 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 9:18URI 4th & 8 at URI 27, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 3:20URI 4th & 3 at URI 43, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 2:43URI 4th & 5 at URI 10, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:07URI 4th & 15 at URI 20, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:21KU 4th & 11 at KU 31, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 10:09URI 4th & 20 at URI 20, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:52URI 4th & 9 at KU 34, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.1%47% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:52URI 4th & 3 at URI 30, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8URI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:51KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:21KU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick97.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:45KU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:36URI Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call3.5%97% to makeGo for two3.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:08KU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:18KU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:47KU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:07KU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:57KU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
98.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 6 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 1 yd to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Cole Moos punt for 43 yds , Harold Cooper returns for no gain to the RIsld 13 Harold Cooper fumbled, recovered by Kans Chevy GrahamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2TD5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0298% → 98%
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 3FUMBLE7 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:44
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Wesley McKoy run for no gain to the RIsld 46 Wesley McKoy fumbled, forced by Damani Mosby, recovered by Kans Dorance Armstrong Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD3 plays · 46 yds · 0:2498% → 98%
URIDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 6:15
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
97.7%
Ollie Graybar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 4:38
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
97.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 1 yd to the Kans 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q1 1:16
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+18
97.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 18 yds to the RIsld 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
97.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 3 yds to the RIsld 35Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+35
98.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 35 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 9TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:092% → 3%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.3%
Wesley McKoy pass complete to Khayri Denny for 9 yds to the RIsld 34Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
98.2%
W. McKoy pass intercepted by Shaw, Tevin at the KU15, Shaw, Tevin return to the KU15, PENALTY KU pass interference (Miller, Tyrone) 12 yards to the KU26, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
96.9%
Wesley McKoy pass complete to Aaron Parker for 23 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Justin Rohrwasser PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD10 plays · 77 yds · 2:2197% → 99%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
97.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
97.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+22
97.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Michael Zunica for 22 yds to the RIsld 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
97.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 9 yds to the RIsld 26Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
97.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 13 yds to the RIsld 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 11INT10 plays · 28 yds · 1:512% → 4%
KUDrive 12MISSED FG10 plays · 41 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
URIDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
URIDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
98.3%
Wesley McKoy pass complete to Charlie McKeeman for 3 yds to the RIsld 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Wesley McKoy pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Fish SmithsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
-5
98.4%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, false start (Abdul Ibrahim) to the RIsld 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Ollie Graybar punt for 33 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD10 plays · 67 yds · 2:5199% → 100%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez, broken up by Khilyni KennedySimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
98.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 10 yds to the RIsld 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
98.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 12 yds to the RIsld 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
98.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 5 yds to the RIsld 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
KUDrive 17INT6 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
99.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 13 yds to the RIsld 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 6 yds to the RIsld 35Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+12
99.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 12 yds to the RIsld 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.8%
Montell Cozart pass intercepted Justin Hogan return for 12 yds to the RIsld 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
99.8%
Wesley McKoy pass complete to Aaron Parker for 14 yds to the RIsld 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Wesley McKoy pass incomplete to Sean Anderson, broken up by Courtney ArnickSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Ollie Graybar punt for 34 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD2 plays · 77 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
URIDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:43
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-5
99.9%
W. McKoy pass complete to McKeeman for 6 yards to the URI16, out-of-bounds (Graham, Chevy), PENALTY URI pass interference (Aa. Parker) 5 yards to the URI5, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21TD4 plays · 38 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 5 yds to the RIsld 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Wesley McKoy sacked by Courtney Arnick for a loss of 5 yards to the RIsld 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 24PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-10
100.0%
Clarke rush for 7 yards to the URI37 (Lee, Mike), PENALTY URI holding (McKeeman) 10 yards to the URI20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 20
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Wesley McKoy pass incomplete to Charlie McKeeman, broken up by Keith Loneker Jr.Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Ollie Graybar punt for 34 yds , Derrick Neal returns for no gain to the Kans 46 Derrick Neal fumbled, recovered by RIsld Michael CurrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 25DOWNS7 plays · 3 yds · 1:080% → 0%
KUDrive 26TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 5 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+38
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Chase Harrell for 38 yds to the RIsld 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Chase Harrell for 13 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:52
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Ollie Graybar punt for 35 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28END OF GAME8 plays · 10 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:36
Wesley McKoy pass complete to Aaron Parker for 23 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Justin Rohrwasser PAT BLOCKED)
-1.4
TD · Q2 8:08
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 9:18
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
+1