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TTU

Texas Tech 10 at Iowa State 66

ISU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:32 · Michael Barden punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+31.0Blowout margin+18.8Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.7Garbage-time factor+8.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:17: Joel Lanning run for 24 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +2.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:21: Jacob Park run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +5.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:52: Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 34 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +9.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:47: Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 39 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +16.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:50: Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted for a TD Kamari Cotton-Moya return for 48 yds for a TD — ISU win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17TTU 4th & 6 at ISU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09ISU 4th & 9 at TTU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:18TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:36TTU 4th & 17 at TTU 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23TTU 4th & 6 at ISU 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:25TTU 4th & 2 at ISU 10, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:32TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 36, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 32, up 42
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:13TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 44, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:32TTU 4th & 4 at ISU 46, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:17ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:21ISU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:27ISU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:47ISU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:50ISU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:17TTU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:13ISU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:19ISU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:39ISU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Michael Barden punt for 31 yds, downed at the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:5040% → 43%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
40.2%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
40.3%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 2
50
+18
40.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 18 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
40.3%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
40.3%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the TexTc 24Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+24
42.8%
Joel Lanning run for 24 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:0058% → 56%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
42.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
42.0%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
42.1%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 19
OWN 38
0
42.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 19
OWN 38
+34
42.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 34 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
41.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
41.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
42.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
41.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
41.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
42.0%
Keke Coutee run for no gain to the IowSt 8Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-5
42.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 13Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
43.7%
Clayton Hatfield 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
44.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for 9 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+18
44.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Dondre Daley for 18 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
44.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
44.9%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
44.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
43.8%
Colin Downing punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0755% → 53%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
44.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
46.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Derrick Willies for 3 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
46.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by D'Andre PayneSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
46.7%
Michael Barden punt for 33 yds, downed at the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:1647% → 52%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
46.6%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+47
46.8%
Jacob Park pass complete to Dondre Daley for 45 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Ondre Pipkins) to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.9%
Jacob Park run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4549% → 48%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.0%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
50.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-11
51.6%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Jomal Wiltz and JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
52.4%
Michael Barden punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:5852% → 62%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
52.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.5%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
62.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 34 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
61.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-1
60.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 28 Da'Leon Ward fumbled, forced by Kamari Cotton-Moya, recovered by IowSt Kamari Cotton-MoyaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4363% → 64%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
63.2%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+3
63.2%
Jacob Park run for 3 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+17
62.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 17 yds to the TexTc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.1%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
69.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.3%
Cameron Batson run for no gain to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
68.4%
Mahomes II, Patrick pass incomplete to Willies, Derrick, PENALTY ISU holding (Jones, Jarnor) 10 yards to the ISU48, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
68.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+4
68.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 4 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
68.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3872% → 89%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Jordyn BrooksSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
72.3%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+14
71.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
72.5%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+3
72.4%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+39
88.8%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 39 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:499% → 6%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
90.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
91.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+48
93.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted for a TD Kamari Cotton-Moya return for 48 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 70 yds · 0:206% → 8%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
93.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 21 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
93.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 30 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+7
92.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 7 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for no gain to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
92.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
93.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 2
OPP 10
0
89.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
92.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:2396% → 98%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
95.5%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+6
95.4%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.2%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
95.2%
Joel Lanning run for 11 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
95.4%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+38
95.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 38 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
97.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 18 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
97.5%
Cole Netten 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
97.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Colin Downing punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
98.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by D'Andre PayneSimilar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
98.0%
Michael Barden punt for 40 yds, downed at the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.2%
Joel Lanning run for 7 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 29 Joel Lanning fumbled, forced by Jah'Shawn Johnson, recovered by IowSt Joel LanningSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+3
98.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 2
OWN 32
-4
98.1%
Colin Downing punt for 40 yds , Cameron Batson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:451% → 1%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+15
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 15 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+25
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 25 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+17
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 17 yds to the IowSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
99.0%
Keke Coutee 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0499% → 99%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.0%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
99.1%
Park, Jacob pass incomplete to Daley, Dondre, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Daley, Dondre) 15 yards to the ISU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+14
98.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to David Montgomery for 14 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
99.0%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+34
99.1%
Jacob Park pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 34 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.3%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
Joel Lanning 19 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 14 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Michael Barden punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
99.4%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
99.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+31
99.4%
Joel Lanning run for 31 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.7%
Kene Nwangwu run for 7 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+35
99.7%
Joel Lanning 35 Yd Run (Peyton Paddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted Evrett Edwards return for no gain to the IowSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:37100% → 100%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.8%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+10
99.9%
Joel Lanning run for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
99.9%
Kene Nwangwu run for 14 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Kene Nwangwu run for 6 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Mitchell Harger run for no gain to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Joel Lanning run for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Paddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+15
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 15 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+10
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 10 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Michael Barden punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
100.0%
Mitchell Harger run for 6 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:47
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 39 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q2 14:52
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 34 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q1 2:21
Jacob Park run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com