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ISU

Iowa State 6 at Texas 27

TEX
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:09 · Joel Lanning sacked by Chris Nelson and Naashon Hughes for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 14 Joel Lanning fumbled, recovered by Texas D'Andre Christmas , return for 0 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 201Pregame prior+0.1Home team on offense+33.8Score differential+23.4Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+19.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:15: Trent Domingue 21 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +4.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TEX win probability +4.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:53: Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 37 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:13: Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 75 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +10.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:53: D'Onta Foreman run for 18 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:48ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43TEX 4th & 22 at ISU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59ISU 4th & 12 at TEX 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:35ISU 4th & 8 at TEX 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:36TEX 4th & 2 at ISU 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:22ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:07TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:34ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:46ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:15TEX 4th & 3 at ISU 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:17ISU 4th & 1 at TEX 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−1.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−7.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:10ISU 4th & 13 at TEX 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:43ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:02TEX 4th & 1 at ISU 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:11ISU 4th & 24 at ISU 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:54TEX 4th & 5 at ISU 12, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:29ISU 4th & 16 at TEX 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09ISU 4th & 6 at TEX 6, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 12:53TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:13TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:53TEX Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0014% → 15%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.0%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for no gain to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
85.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 4 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.6%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
85.4%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
85.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
85.4%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, downed at the Texas 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:5785% → 84%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
85.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+9
85.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 9 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
85.2%
Shane Buechele run for 8 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+18
85.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 18 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
85.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 9 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
85.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
85.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-15
85.1%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Oliver, Jake for 7 yards to the IOWAST21, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Oliver, Jake) 15 yards to the IOWAST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 24
OPP 43
+2
84.8%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 22
OPP 41
0
84.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 22
OPP 41
0
84.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:3616% → 18%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.4%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
84.2%
Mike Warren run for 13 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
83.9%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
83.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
83.2%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
83.0%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
82.8%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 6
50
+30
82.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 30 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
82.3%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
82.1%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-5
81.9%
Joel Lanning sacked by Jeffrey McCulloch for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
81.9%
Cole Netten 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3982% → 82%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-16
81.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 18 D'Onta Foreman fumbled, forced by Willie Harvey, recovered by IowSt Willie Harvey TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2720% → 22%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
80.4%
Joel Lanning run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+13
79.8%
David Montgomery run for 13 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
79.6%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.4%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the Texas 3Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
79.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Brian Seda) to the Texas 8Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
79.2%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
78.1%
Cole Netten 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:4779% → 77%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
78.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 16 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
78.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+9
77.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 9 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
78.7%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Dorian Leonard) to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
77.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+7
77.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+6
77.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
76.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0724% → 25%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.8%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
74.8%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Carson EppsSimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
74.7%
Jacob Park pass complete to Dondre Daley for 3 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-3
74.2%
Jacob Park sacked by Chris Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
74.8%
Colin Downing punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1075% → 71%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
74.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 4 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
74.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 3 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+4
73.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
73.7%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Warrick, Jacorey, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Warrick, Jacorey) 10 yards to the TEXAS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+3
73.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 17
OWN 16
0
73.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+8
72.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kyle Porter for 8 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 9
OWN 24
-3
70.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 51 yds , Allen Lazard returns for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2429% → 30%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
70.6%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
69.4%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
69.4%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-12
68.9%
Jacob Park sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 12 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+1
70.0%
Jacob Park pass complete to Mike Warren for 1 yd to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 19
OWN 24
+14
69.9%
Colin Downing punt for 49 yds , Armanti Foreman returns for 14 yds to the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2371% → 68%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
71.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-5
71.3%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Leonard, Dorian for 17 yards to the IOWAST37, PENALTY TEXAS ineligible downfield on pass (Nickelson, Tristan) 5 yards to the TEXAS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
70.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
69.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+2
68.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 45 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamaal Richardson) to the IowSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5633% → 34%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
66.9%
Jacob Park pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 3 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
66.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+3
66.9%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
65.3%
Jacob Park run for 7 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
63.9%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Darius Lee-CampbellSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-2
64.8%
Jacob Park sacked by Bryce Cottrell for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+22
65.9%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Armanti Foreman returns for 22 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 1:2569% → 70%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
69.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 8 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
69.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
68.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 8 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
70.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 8 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
71.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey Warrick, broken up by Kamari Cotton-MoyaSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+13
69.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Evrett Edwards) to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
70.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
68.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
65.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
69.9%
Trent Domingue 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13DOWNS
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0135% → 38%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
64.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 20 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
62.4%
Cole Netten 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0270% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
70.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 8 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
69.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 8 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
70.4%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
50
+8
71.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 8 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
71.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 5 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
80.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 37 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:2223% → 22%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
76.8%
Joel Lanning run for 12 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
75.3%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
74.4%
Joel Lanning sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+11
76.8%
Joel Lanning sacked by Breckyn Hager for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
75.1%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+11
75.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 11 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
74.0%
Mike Warren run for 9 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
73.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
74.4%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
77.9%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0480% → 89%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
79.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Breckyn Hager) to the Texas 13Similar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
79.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+10
79.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 10 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+4
78.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
88.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 75 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:4611% → 10%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
88.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 42 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
87.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-8
88.1%
Joel Lanning sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
90.0%
Colin Downing punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
14 plays · 96 yds · 4:0290% → 97%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
89.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
89.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+3
89.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Jomal WiltzSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
89.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 5 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+6
90.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
90.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 12 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
91.1%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+9
91.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 9 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
91.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 8 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
91.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
91.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.7%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Johnson, Collin, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference (Jones, Jarnor) 15 yards to the IOWAST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 18 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
Jacob Park run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
96.1%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
96.2%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-4
96.5%
Colin Downing punt for 51 yds , Armanti Foreman returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 25 TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Jeffrey McCulloch) to the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20INT
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:3398% → 98%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
97.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+6
97.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+3
97.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to D'Onta Foreman for 3 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
97.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 10 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian Leonard, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
97.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
97.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
98.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 15 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
98.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
98.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
98.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
98.0%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Kane Seeley return for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:463% → 2%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-14
97.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 1 yd to the IowSt 36 IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 24
OWN 21
0
97.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 24
OWN 21
0
97.5%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
97.6%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 24
OWN 21
+10
97.6%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Armanti Foreman returns for 10 yds to the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:1198% → 100%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.2%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
98.3%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+12
98.3%
Shane Buechele run for 12 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian Leonard, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
98.3%
Kyle Porter run for 14 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
98.4%
Kyle Porter run for 9 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
98.5%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
98.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-5
98.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+7
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
99.5%
Trent Domingue 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23FUMBLE
21 plays · 73 yds · 4:361% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
99.5%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+6
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+15
99.5%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete to Warren, Mike, PENALTY TEXAS roughing passer (Fowler, Erick) 15 yards to the IOWAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
99.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 20 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.5%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
99.5%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to David Montgomery for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-10
99.4%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Garcia, Robby) 10 yards to the TEXAS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 16
OPP 41
0
99.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 16
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 16
OPP 41
+18
99.6%
Joel Lanning run for 18 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+14
99.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 14 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.4%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.4%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
99.8%
Joel Lanning sacked by Chris Nelson and Naashon Hughes for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 14 Joel Lanning fumbled, recovered by Texas D'Andre Christmas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:13
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 75 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 12:53
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 37 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q3 0:53
D'Onta Foreman run for 18 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com