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ISU

Iowa State 31 at Oklahoma State 38

OKST
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:09 · Colin Downing punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+18.1Home team on offense−10.9Score differential−6.2Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:13: Trever Ryen 35 Yd pass from Joel Lanning (Cole Netten Kick) — ISU win probability +12.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:55: Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +24.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:24: Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 35 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +16.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:51: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +24.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 3:40: Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +27.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53ISU 4th & 11 at OKST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:50ISU 4th & 16 at OKST 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59OKST 4th & 6 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:58OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 47, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.8 ptsWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%−2.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.6%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:13OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:09ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−5.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:18OKST 4th & 6 at ISU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:55OKST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 17
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:18ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:07ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−4.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:33OKST 4th & 6 at ISU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.8
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−13.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:46OKST 4th & 20 at ISU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−5.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−1.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:04ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−5.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:53ISU 4th & 14 at ISU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:20OKST 4th & 26 at ISU 36, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:13OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:59ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:51OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:58ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:13ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:55ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:24OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:51OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:40OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
86.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 6 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
86.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 8 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
86.7%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+12
86.7%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
86.7%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
86.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Sam Harms for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
50
0
86.7%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
50
0
86.7%
Colin Downing punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
85.8%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
85.8%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
85.7%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
85.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:1015% → 17%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
85.2%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
85.2%
Joel Lanning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+11
85.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 11 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
85.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 5 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
85.0%
Joel Lanning run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+8
85.0%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
50
+15
84.9%
Deshaunte Jones run for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
84.9%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Devante Averette) to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
84.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (David Montgomery) to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
84.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever Ryen, broken up by Tre FlowersSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+6
84.9%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-2
83.7%
Joel Lanning sacked by Vili Leveni for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
83.4%
Cole Netten 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4083% → 85%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.3%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
83.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
83.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
50
+6
83.8%
Rennie Childs run for 6 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
83.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
83.8%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
83.9%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
84.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
84.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 33 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:2315% → 15%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
84.7%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Vili LeveniSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
84.7%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
84.8%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
84.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Carson Epps for 7 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
84.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
84.2%
Mike Warren run for 20 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
84.1%
Jacob Park sacked by Tralund Webber for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 16
OPP 42
0
84.3%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Devante AveretteSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 16
OPP 42
0
84.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 16
OPP 42
+28
84.8%
Colin Downing punt for 33 yds IOWA ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5084% → 83%
Q1 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+3
83.7%
Mason Rudolph run for 3 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
83.7%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
83.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 7 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
83.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
82.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:1616% → 22%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+59
84.0%
Jacob Park pass complete to Dondre Daley for 59 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.8%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
82.8%
Jacob Park run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.4%
Jacob Park pass complete to Allen Lazard for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
80.0%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Jhaustin Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+14
79.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 14 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
80.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 13 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
81.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-1
81.3%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 6
50
0
81.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 6
50
0
80.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 40 yds, downed at the IowSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
78.6%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
79.0%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Devante AveretteSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+13
79.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Carson Epps for 13 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
78.4%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
78.2%
Jacob Park run for 4 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-5
78.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
78.7%
Jacob Park pass intercepted Derrick Moncrief return for no gain to the OKSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0776% → 84%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
76.3%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+11
77.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 11 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+42
77.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 42 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.6%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5317% → 30%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.0%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
83.2%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete to Daley, Dondre, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Pipkins, Lenzy) 15 yards to the ISU44, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
81.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 13 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
81.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 11 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
80.6%
Joel Lanning sacked by Tralund Webber for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+22
81.1%
Deshaunte Jones run for 9 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, personal foul (Justin Phillips) to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
80.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
80.5%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
81.3%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.2%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
73.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+19
73.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 19 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
75.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
74.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Austin HaysSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
73.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan Seales, broken up by Jomal WiltzSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+42
72.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 42 yds , Trever Ryen returns for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 17 Trever Ryen fumbled, recovered by IowSt Trever RyenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:4828% → 30%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
71.6%
Joel Lanning run for 14 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
70.8%
Joel Lanning run for 15 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
69.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
68.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
68.1%
Joel Lanning sacked by Jarrell Owens and DeQuinton Osborne for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+9
67.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 9 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-9
66.5%
Joel Lanning sacked by DeQuinton Osborne for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 19
OWN 47
-5
70.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
70.9%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
70.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for 8 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
72.0%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
71.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Britton AbbottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:0335% → 49%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
64.7%
Joel Lanning run for 8 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
64.3%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
63.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Patrick Scoggins) to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+35
51.2%
Trever Ryen 35 Yd pass from Joel Lanning (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q3 12:13
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-9
50.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 57 yds , Trever Ryen returns for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 13 IOWA ST Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the IowSt 6Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.5%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 23Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
52.3%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
50.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey, broken up by D'Andre PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
52.7%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
53.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to David MontgomerySimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 7
-4
53.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Allen Lazard) to the IowSt 3Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 13
OWN 3
0
53.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 13
OWN 3
0
54.5%
Colin Downing punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
52.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
52.0%
Mason Rudolph run for 4 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
52.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Blake Jarwin, broken up by Mike JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
49.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:2650% → 77%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
50.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to David Montgomery for 8 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
49.1%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
49.6%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
49.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 7 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+7
49.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+40
47.9%
Joel Lanning run for 40 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
23.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
28.4%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+18
28.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 18 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Blake JarwinSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
30.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 5
50
0
30.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey, broken up by Brian MillsSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 5
50
0
30.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
22.8%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
22.9%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
23.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
23.9%
Colin Downing punt for 37 yds, downed at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:3126% → 42%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+20
25.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 20 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
42.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 35 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
37.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 16 yds Carson Epps fumbled, forced by Tre Flowers, recovered by OKSt Ashton LampkinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2140% → 62%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
40.1%
Justice Hill run for 11 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
42.0%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
42.0%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
36.5%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
38.2%
James Washington run for 16 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4448% → 44%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
52.1%
Deshaunte Jones run for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
52.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Deshaunte Jones, broken up by Tre FlowersSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
54.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
56.3%
Colin Downing punt for 44 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:2155% → 66%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
54.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Barry Sanders for 12 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+36
58.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 36 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
62.2%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
62.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for no gain to the IowSt 13Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
55.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
66.1%
Ben Grogan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.9%
Jacob Park run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
59.0%
Jacob Park pass intercepted Jordan Burton return for no gain to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0070% → 62%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
70.3%
Hill, Justice rush for no gain to the ISU31, out-of-bounds (Tribune, Nigel), PENALTY OSU illegal block (Salako, Victor) 15 yards to the ISU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 25
OPP 46
+8
66.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Barry Sanders for 8 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 17
OPP 38
0
66.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 17
OPP 38
-3
64.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 20
OPP 41
0
61.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 39%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.9%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-11
57.4%
Lanning, Joel pass complete to Lazard, Allen for 3 yards to the ISU25, PENALTY ISU face mask (Seda, Brian) 11 yards to the ISU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 19
OWN 11
0
57.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+11
59.5%
Joel Lanning run for 11 yds to the IowSt 22 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
61.0%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:0263% → 94%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
62.9%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 33 Justice Hill fumbled, recovered by OKSt Brad LundbladeSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+13
60.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 13 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
65.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 9 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
67.0%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
67.0%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-5
66.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+8
64.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 8 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+33
66.1%
Jeff Carr run for 33 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 31DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4711% → 7%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
89.3%
Joel Lanning sacked by Motekiai Maile for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
90.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 4 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-1
92.6%
Joel Lanning sacked by DeQuinton Osborne for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:2896% → 98%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-7
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 17
OPP 27
-5
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 22
OPP 32
-4
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 26
OPP 36
0
97.6%
Zach Sinor punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
93.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 11 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST down lat. to Carson Epps for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST down lat. to Carson Epps for 6 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST down lat. to Joel Lanning for a loss of 4 yards Joel Lanning fumbled, recovered by IowSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
93.1%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Mike Warren, broken up by Tralund WebberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:40
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+27.8
TD · Q3 5:55
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q4 14:51
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+24.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com