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NAVY

Navy 75 at SMU 31

SMU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:50: Ben Hicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +9.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:06: Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:02: Shawn White run for 50 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:03: Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Justin Norton return for 26 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:05: Will Worth run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:25SMU 4th & 7 at NAVY 44, tied
    Close callWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    33.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:40SMU 4th & 3 at NAVY 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−6.1
    average punt
  3. Q3 8:10SMU 4th & 13 at NAVY 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 3:58SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q4 13:06SMU 4th & 30 at SMU 15, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  6. Q4 3:13SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 21, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 10:41SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:25NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:20NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:31NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:50SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:14SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:06NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 14:02NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:03NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:05NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:05NAVY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 13:11NAVY Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 8:38NAVY Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 5:44SMU Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 3:22NAVY Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1940% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
39.5%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
39.5%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 5 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Austin Rolfe for 12 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
39.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-3
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+21
39.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 21 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
43.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 19 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:1658% → 59%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
42.1%
Dishan Romine run for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
42.0%
SMU Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
42.0%
Dishan Romine run for 8 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
40.6%
Will Worth run for 29 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
41.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
41.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 22 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
42.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
42.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+1
41.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
41.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Austin Rolfe, broken up by Justin NortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 5:1459% → 63%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
41.4%
Shawn White run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+21
41.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 21 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
41.0%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+13
41.0%
Will Worth run for 13 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
40.9%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
40.9%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+6
41.2%
Dishan Romine run for 6 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
40.9%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.7%
Will Worth run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 4:4038% → 43%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
38.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
38.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
38.9%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
39.2%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+18
38.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 18 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
40.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
40.6%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+2
39.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 2 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
40.6%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to CASTILLE, X., PENALTY NAVY personal foul (WILLIAMS, Sean) 15 yards to the NAVY16, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
40.6%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
40.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
39.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Hudson SullivanSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
42.8%
Josh Williams 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0959% → 68%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
41.5%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Horace Richardson) to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
40.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 35 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
39.3%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+8
39.3%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:3334% → 45%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
33.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
33.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
33.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
34.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+33
34.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 33 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
36.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 12 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
35.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.8%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:2545% → 55%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
44.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+26
44.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 26 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
46.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
46.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
55.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:0048% → 64%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
52.0%
Myles Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
52.2%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
51.4%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Toneo GulleySimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
51.6%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 27 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
49.2%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
48.2%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
49.3%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 9 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
48.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+13
48.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 13 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
48.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
36.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:4962% → 73%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
37.6%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 6
50
+50
27.1%
Shawn White run for 50 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5228% → 17%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
28.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+26
16.7%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Justin Norton return for 26 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14MISSED FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 4:4617% → 15%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
16.6%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
16.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 5 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+13
16.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
16.9%
WEST, Braeden rush for 4 yards to the SMU34 (NORTON, Justin), PENALTY NAVY 12 men on the field declined, PENALTY NAVY offside defense (SAYLES, Tyler) 5 yards to the SMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+7
17.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by D.J. PalmoreSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
17.6%
SMU Penalty, false start (Jerry Saena) to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+30
16.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 30 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
18.8%
Ben Hicks run for 8 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
18.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+6
18.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
18.9%
Braeden West run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
18.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
18.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
14.8%
Josh Williams 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 4:0588% → 99%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
12.1%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
12.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
12.3%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+44
12.0%
Darryl Bonner run for 44 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
10.9%
Toneo Gulley run for 14 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
10.9%
Myles Swain run for 6 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.4%
Will Worth run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
1.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+2
1.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+9
1.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
1.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
0.9%
Toneo Gulley run for 39 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
2.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.1%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Tyris Wooten return for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1399% → 100%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
0.9%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-1
0.9%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+55
0.9%
Zach Abey run for 55 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
0.7%
Tre Walker run for 11 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.7%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
0.4%
Ben Hicks sacked by Nnamdi Uzoma for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+13
0.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
0.4%
Ben Hicks sacked by Brandon Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+3
0.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-13
0.4%
Ben Hicks sacked by Nnamdi Uzoma for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 30
OWN 15
0
0.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.3%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
0.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+46
0.3%
Zach Abey run for 46 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
0.2%
Braeden West run for 21 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 6 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
0.2%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
0.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+15
0.2%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., PENALTY NAVY personal foul (DAVENPORT, M) 15 yards to the NAVY29, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
0.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
0.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 16 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+43
0.2%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 43 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
0.2%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+4
0.2%
Kendrick Mouton run for 4 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.1%
Kendrick Mouton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
0.1%
Myron Gailliard run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
0.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by John GillisSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:06
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q3 13:03
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Justin Norton return for 26 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 14:02
Shawn White run for 50 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com