Try the model
HOU

Houston 44 at Memphis 48

MEM
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:47 · Spencer Smith punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior−4.3Home team on offense+10.2Garbage-time factor+4.4Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:17: Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +14.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:02: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 55 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +34.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:49: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +41.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:29: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +54.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +47.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:01HOU 4th & 5 at MEM 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:45MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:49MEM 4th & 1 at HOU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−1.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:57MEM 4th & 10 at HOU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:59HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:13MEM 4th & 10 at HOU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:59MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:38HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−3.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:33MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−3.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:27HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:49HOU 4th & 6 at MEM 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:47MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:03HOU 4th & 3 at MEM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−3.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:07HOU 4th & 9 at MEM 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−14.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:34MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 39, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:02HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.0%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:18MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:24MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:09HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:52MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:54HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:17MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:56HOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:02HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−2.0
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:49MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−1.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:29HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−4.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:19MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:2737% → 37%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
36.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+67
37.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 67 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:0963% → 62%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.1%
Duke Catalon run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
37.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
37.5%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
37.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
38.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
38.0%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
38.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 9 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
38.4%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
38.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
38.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
38.4%
Ty Cummings 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:2339% → 43%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
38.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 22 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
38.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 9 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
39.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 15 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
39.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 17 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
40.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+10
40.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 10 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0658% → 60%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
41.6%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
42.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+10
42.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
42.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-5
42.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Mason Denley) to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+25
43.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 25 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
42.6%
Duke Catalon run for 14 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
42.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.1%
Duke Catalon run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1142% → 48%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
41.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-12
41.7%
Anthony Miller run for a loss of 12 yards to the Memph 22 Anthony Miller fumbled, recovered by Memph Riley FergusonSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 23
OWN 22
+22
41.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 22 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+19
42.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 19 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
43.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 20 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
44.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
44.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 14 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.1%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Houst 2Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5152% → 59%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.8%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
48.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
48.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ernest Suttles) to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
47.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
47.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+16
47.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 16 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
41.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 29 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:4344% → 50%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
44.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+23
44.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 23 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
46.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
46.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 6 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
45.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+15
45.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 15 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
46.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
47.0%
Riley Ferguson run for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
46.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
49.5%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:5151% → 48%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.0%
Linell Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
49.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Braylon Jones) to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-1
49.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+3
51.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+1
52.1%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 1 yd to the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:3753% → 56%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
52.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 15 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
53.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
54.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
54.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+9
55.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 9 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
56.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for no gain to the Houst 12Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
56.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
56.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
56.0%
Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0843% → 41%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
56.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
50
-7
55.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+4
58.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 4 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+12
59.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Shaun Rupert return for 12 yds to the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3360% → 79%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
59.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+14
59.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 14 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
62.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 25 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
62.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-5
63.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Trevon Tate) to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
63.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+4
63.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+5
65.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Howard Wilson) to the Houst 4 for a 1ST down. Howard Wilson ejected for targeting.Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
13 plays · 72 yds · 1:0825% → 29%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
74.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+23
74.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 23 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
73.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 6 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
72.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
73.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
50
-6
72.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Ernest Suttles for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+11
75.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-10
72.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Jones) to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+22
75.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 22 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
71.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:4724% → 34%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
76.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
75.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
74.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
75.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+35
63.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 35 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+15
66.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5767% → 66%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Dustin Woodard) to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
67.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
66.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
65.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1433% → 29%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.7%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
67.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
68.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Braylon Jones) to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-2
69.6%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Arthur Maulet and Darian Porter for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
70.6%
Dane Roy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5869% → 68%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
69.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
69.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Trevon Tate) to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+2
69.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 2 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
69.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:3131% → 35%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
69.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
69.8%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
69.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+11
71.4%
Dane Roy run for 11 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
69.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
69.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
69.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 16 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
67.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
67.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 9 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-1
67.7%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
69.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-5
72.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 8Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
65.0%
Ty Cummings 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:5471% → 70%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
72.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
73.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-5
72.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Daniel Montiel) to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
71.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
69.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 5:3333% → 39%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
67.2%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+17
67.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 17 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
64.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
64.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+9
66.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
66.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
64.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
66.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+3
69.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
65.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+6
65.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-5
67.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Steven Dunbar) to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
68.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
65.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+16
66.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 16 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
68.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 3Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskeySimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
70.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
60.6%
Ty Cummings 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2166% → 67%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
66.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
65.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
67.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-7
70.0%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Khalil Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+9
65.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
67.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:2336% → 70%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
64.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 5 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
64.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
64.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 6 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.0%
Linell Bonner pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
64.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
64.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 5 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+55
30.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 55 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0837% → 86%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeremy Winchester) to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
37.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
40.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+10
39.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
41.5%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 11
50
+12
38.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 12 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
41.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
44.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel HurdSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+35
85.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1527% → 90%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
69.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
71.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chauncey Lanier) to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
69.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 16 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
67.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 14 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
65.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 18 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
64.9%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 0:5629% → 91%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
28.9%
Riley Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
31.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 30 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
38.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Wilson) to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
42.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
43.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
91.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1122% → 21%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Houst 31 lat. to Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 28 lat. to Duke Catalon for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 25 lat. to Greg Ward Jr. for a loss of 2 yards Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Memph Chris MorleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:29
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
-54.7
TD · Q4 0:19
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+47.4
TD · Q4 3:49
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+41.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com