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CIN

Cincinnati 37 at Tulsa 40

TLSA
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:53 · Tion Green run for no gain to the Tulsa 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 126Pregame prior+18.2Home team on offense−6.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:43: Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +20.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 3:12: Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +27.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. FG · Q4 0:00: Redford Jones 22 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +25.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Josh Pasley 33 Yd Field Goal — CIN win probability +16.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: James Flanders 4 Yd Run — TLSA win probability +54.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:39CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06CIN 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at CIN 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44CIN 4th & 11 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:04TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:41CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:53CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:34TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:53CIN 4th & 1 at TLSA 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−2.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−10.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:03TLSA 4th & 5 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56TLSA 4th & 7 at CIN 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−11.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:35TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:36CIN 4th & 1 at TLSA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−5.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−7.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:57CIN 4th & 5 at TLSA 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−9.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:07CIN 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.9 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:31CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:25CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:44TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:56CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:53TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:43CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:12TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.0%
Devin Gray run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+5
88.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+5
88.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
87.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
87.7%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
87.6%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
87.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 55 yds, downed at the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
87.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+16
87.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 16 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
87.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
87.1%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-3
87.1%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kolton Shindelar for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
87.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 26 yds, downed at the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
86.9%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Cincy 38 James Flanders fumbled, forced by Carter Jacobs, recovered by Cincy Chris BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:2314% → 16%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.4%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+12
86.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 12 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
86.2%
Deionte Buckley run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+38
84.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 38 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Carter Jacobs TULSA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
84.6%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Mike Tyson return for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
81.9%
Tyler Cogswell pass complete to Hayden Moore for 29 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:3683% → 84%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
82.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+47
82.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 47 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
83.2%
James Flanders run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+18
83.4%
James Flanders run for 18 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
83.4%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:3217% → 19%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
83.0%
Taylor Boose run for 4 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
82.9%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+48
82.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 48 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
82.4%
Jerron Rollins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
82.4%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate Cole, broken up by Matt LinscottSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
80.8%
Josh Pasley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10DOWNS
19 plays · 67 yds · 3:0681% → 78%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
80.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
80.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
80.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
81.3%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
81.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
81.3%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to ATKINSON, J., PENALTY CIN offside defense 5 yards to the CIN38, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
81.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
81.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
78.6%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
79.1%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
79.1%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+7
78.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
79.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
79.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+5
78.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
-1
78.2%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:0125% → 38%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
74.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 9 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+1
74.4%
Deionte Buckley run for 1 yd to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
61.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 82 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.0%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Mike Tyson return for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
60.3%
Deionte Buckley run for 9 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
60.0%
Deionte Buckley run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
60.1%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 11
50
0
60.3%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 11
50
0
60.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 11
50
0
61.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
63.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
63.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
63.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
63.0%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
62.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Perry YoungSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+4
62.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 40 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.7%
Taylor Boose run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
54.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Grant Coleman, broken up by Matt LinscottSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
55.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 4:0857% → 61%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
57.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+8
57.8%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
57.5%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
58.2%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
58.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
59.2%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
59.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
59.7%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
59.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
60.3%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+11
60.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
55.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
55.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
63.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 17 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
61.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alex Thomas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.4%
Deionte Buckley run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
61.2%
Deionte Buckley run for 12 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0159% → 73%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.8%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
59.0%
James Flanders run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
60.2%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
60.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
61.1%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+25
61.1%
James Flanders run for 25 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
62.3%
James Flanders run for 11 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
62.4%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
67.0%
Deionte Buckley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29 Deionte Buckley fumbled, forced by Trent Martin, recovered by Cincy Deionte BuckleySimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
68.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
69.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
67.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
69.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
68.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
66.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.1%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
63.8%
Hayden Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+28
63.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 28 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
60.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
61.0%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
62.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 6 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
63.7%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0064% → 66%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
64.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+20
64.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
65.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 5
50
0
67.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 5
50
0
65.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:5239% → 59%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
61.2%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+11
61.0%
Tion Green run for 11 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
40.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:4641% → 44%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
40.8%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+14
40.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
41.6%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
42.9%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.2%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+18
42.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 18 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
44.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+28
44.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 28 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
46.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
46.6%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
44.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Chris Burton for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 7Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
44.4%
Redford Jones 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
39.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+6
40.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
40.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+18
41.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 18 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
38.1%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
36.7%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-1
37.3%
Deionte Buckley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
39.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
36.8%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
37.8%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
36.5%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+30
34.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds, downed at the TULSA 32 TULSA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:3976% → 85%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
24.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
23.1%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
23.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
23.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
23.4%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
23.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+5
26.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
22.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Jerron RollinsSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
22.8%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-3
23.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
14.8%
Josh Pasley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 2:4215% → 48%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
14.7%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
16.0%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
16.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
17.7%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
18.6%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
18.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
20.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds Keenen Johnson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Keenen Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
20.3%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to HOBBS, J. (COLEMAN, Grant), PENALTY CIN pass interference (COLEMAN, Grant) 3 yards to the CIN22, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
20.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
20.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+15
18.5%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to ATKINSON, J., PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 15 yards to the CIN5, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0574% → 77%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.8%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
26.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 17 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
20.9%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
20.8%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 2
50
0
20.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Jerron RollinsSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 2
50
0
22.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30FG
10 plays · 83 yds · 1:1928% → 66%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
27.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+8
28.7%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
28.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
30.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+22
29.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 22 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
35.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 19 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
39.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
39.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 15 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
65.9%
Redford Jones 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 31FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
41.1%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
42.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
26.3%
Josh Pasley 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 32TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.3%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
35.4%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+21
31.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 21 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.7%
James Flanders 4 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
James Flanders 4 Yd Run
+54.3
TD · Q4 3:12
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+27.6
FG · Q4 0:00
Redford Jones 22 yd FG GOOD
+25.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com