View as
Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:48 · Zachary Block punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 10:49: Timeout TEMPLE, clock 10:49 — TULN win probability +1.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 6:44: Zachary Block punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 22 — TEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:33: TULANE Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Tulan 24 — TEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:03: Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 12 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +9.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:56: Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 42 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 9:08TEM 4th & 10 at TULN 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call78.7%77% to makePunt78.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 6:10TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it20.1%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00TEM 4th & 1 at TULN 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.0%59% to convertField goal78.1%−1.094% to makePunt75.6%−3.5average punt
- Q2 12:45TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%average punt
- Q2 11:21TEM 4th & 10 at TULN 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it77.4%−0.230% to convertField goal77.0%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call77.6%average punt
- Q2 10:54TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snapGo for it21.7%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q2 9:29TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.3%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%average punt
- Q2 6:44TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.3%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.5%average punt
- Q2 0:04TEM 4th & 15 at TULN 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snapGo for it76.0%−1.815% to convertField goalTheir call77.8%83% to makePunt71.9%−5.9average punt
- Q3 14:54TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.5%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.9%average punt
- Q3 5:58TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.5%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%average punt
- Q3 2:48TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 39, up 24Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:33TULN 4th & 17 at TEM 45, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.315% to convertField goal1.9%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q4 5:04TEM 4th & 16 at TULN 32, up 31Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−0.116% to convertField goal99.7%51% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 6:12TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:03TEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:56TEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:08TEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1MISSED FG15 plays · 56 yds · 5:5286% → 83%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
14.2%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 19 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+29
14.2%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 29 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
15.9%
THOMAS,Jahad rush over left end for 1 yard to the TLN18 (TEAMER, R.), PENALTY TEM holding (THOMPSON,Colin) 10 yards to the TLN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+4
16.1%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 4 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
TEMDrive 3TD4 plays · 34 yds · 1:4783% → 84%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
17.1%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 31 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:10
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+5
16.5%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Terren Encalade for 5 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5DOWNS11 plays · 58 yds · 3:0383% → 82%
Q1 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-10
17.1%
[GUN], WALKER,Phillip slant pass complete to BRYANT,Ventell for 6 yards to the TLN49 (LEWIS, Donnie), PENALTY TEM holding (McGOWAN,Brendan) 10 yards to the TEM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+20
17.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 20 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+35
17.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 35 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+13
17.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 13 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 12:45
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
18.5%
Zachary Block punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Tulan 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 9:29
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+8
20.1%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 8 yds to the Temp 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+11
20.1%
Johnathan Brantley run for 11 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FG17 plays · 63 yds · 2:2980% → 83%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
20.1%
WALKER,Phillip deep pass incomplete to WEBB,Greg, PENALTY TLN pass interference (KEYES, T.) 15 yards to the TEM37, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+39
20.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 39 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+15
17.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 15 yds to the Tulan 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
17.5%
[GUN], WALKER,Phillip middle pass complete to BRYANT,Ventell for 5 yards to the TLN0, clock 00:26, PENALTY TEM holding (DAWKINS,Dion) 10 yards to the TLN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
17.5%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Greg Webb, broken up by Nico MarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
17.4%
Glen Cuiellette pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Haason ReddickSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
16.7%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Josh Rounds for 5 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
16.8%
Zachary Block punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 27 , Jahad Thomas returns for no gain to the Temp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD14 plays · 73 yds · 7:3082% → 92%
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
17.1%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Nate L. Smith for 7 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
17.1%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 14 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
16.8%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Adonis Jennings, broken up by Donnie Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+5
17.2%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 5 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+10
16.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 10 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 12 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
TEMDrive 16TD5 plays · 78 yds · 2:3991% → 98%
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
8.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 4 yds to the Temp 28Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+30
8.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 30 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
8.0%
Phillip Walker run for no gain to the Tulan 42 Phillip Walker fumbled,Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
2.1%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 42 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:48
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
3.2%
Zachary Block punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3298% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 3:142% → 2%
TEMDrive 20TD10 plays · 84 yds · 5:1299% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+7
0.1%
Johnathan Brantley run for 7 yds to the Tulan 40 Johnathan Brantley fumbled, forced by Karamo Dioubate, recovered by Temp Sean ChandlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
0.2%
Logan Marchi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Zachery Harris) to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:03
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 12 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q3 2:56
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 42 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-6
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:33
TULANE Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Tulan 24
-2.6