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USF

South Florida 35 at SMU 27

SMU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:33 · Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 7 yds to the SFla 28 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (Khalid McGee) to the SFla 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior−15.8Home team on offense−14.0Score differential−7.1Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:50: Ke'Mon Freeman pass complete to James Proche for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:21: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +15.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:40: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 65 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +11.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:15: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 54 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +14.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:09: D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +14.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:08USF 4th & 1 at USF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:03SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:53USF 4th & 4 at SMU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:09SMU 4th & 4 at USF 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 11 at USF 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:41USF 4th & 7 at SMU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:47USF 4th & 11 at USF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:33SMU 4th & 25 at SMU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:50USF 4th & 13 at USF 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:14SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:20USF 4th & 4 at USF 30, up 14
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:48SMU 4th & 7 at USF 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−11.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:59SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 18, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:58USF 4th & 4 at USF 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:19SMU 4th & 3 at USF 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−7.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:57USF 4th & 21 at USF 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:25SMU 4th & 1 at USF 14, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−1.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−8.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:44USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:09SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:08USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:50SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:21USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:40USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:15SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:09USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
20.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 77 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:3021% → 22%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
20.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 15 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
20.8%
Braeden West run for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
20.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 17 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
20.8%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+11
20.8%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
20.8%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
22.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5378% → 78%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
22.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
22.1%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
22.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 7 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
22.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
22.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+60
21.7%
Marlon Mack run for 60 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
21.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
21.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+8
21.9%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
22.1%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
22.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+2
22.0%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
21.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
22.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
22.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
22.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 12 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
22.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
22.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
21.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-5
21.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Rodney Adams) to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
21.8%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
21.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
22.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+43
23.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 43 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
24.4%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
24.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 8 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-3
24.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
23.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 28 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:4377% → 76%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
23.4%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
23.4%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
23.2%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
23.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
23.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+16
23.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
22.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
22.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-4
22.7%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
23.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 3 , James Proche returns for no gain to the SMU 3 James Proche fumbled, recovered by SMU James Proche , return for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 97 yds · 6:2124% → 37%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
24.2%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+9
24.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
24.2%
WEST, Braeden rush for loss of 2 yards to the SMU12 (WARD, Johnny), PENALTY SMU holding (DICKMAN, Dylan) 7 yards to the SMU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 17
OWN 7
-3
24.2%
SMU Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 20
OWN 4
+3
24.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 17
OWN 7
+8
24.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+12
23.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 12 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
24.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+7
25.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
25.2%
Ben Hicks sacked by Mike Love and Bruce Hector for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+1
24.5%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+18
24.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
25.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
36.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass complete to James Proche for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
29.5%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+4
29.7%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
29.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
31.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
35.1%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+5
35.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+12
34.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 12 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
35.7%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
36.3%
Braeden West run for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 28 Braeden West fumbled, forced by Khalid McGee, recovered by SFla Ronnie HogginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
21.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5525% → 25%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
25.0%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+3
24.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+11
24.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 39 , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 11 yds to the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1977% → 76%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
22.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
22.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-4
23.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
24.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.3%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
24.8%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
25.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+7
24.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 7 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.6%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Deatrick Nichols return for no gain to the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
15.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 65 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
17.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
17.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
16.6%
SMU Penalty, false start (Xavier Castille) to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
16.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-11
15.9%
Ben Hicks sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+7
15.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 7 yds to the SFla 28 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (Khalid McGee) to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
14.2%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+1
14.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+60
15.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 51 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 19 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
14.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
14.3%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+16
14.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 16 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
14.6%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
15.3%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
15.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
15.1%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
15.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
15.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 33 yds, downed at the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
11.7%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
11.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
11.9%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
12.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 57 yds, downed at the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:3713% → 29%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
12.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
12.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
12.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
12.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+14
12.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 14 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
14.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+54
29.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 54 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1832% → 33%
Q3 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+9
31.7%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
31.7%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
31.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
29.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Bruce HectorSimilar
Q3 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
33.4%
Josh Williams 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3371% → 88%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
28.9%
Marlon Mack run for 14 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
28.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+13
26.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
25.5%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
25.5%
MACK, Marlon rush for 17 yards to the SMU22 (MILLINES, D.), PENALTY USF holding (HALL, Jeremi) 10 yards to the SMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+5
26.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+35
26.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 35 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
12.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
15.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
15.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton SMU Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+9
14.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
13.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
13.2%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
13.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+7
13.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
14.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:3916% → 20%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
15.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 49 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
18.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
18.8%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
17.6%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
20.3%
Josh Williams 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0085% → 87%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
15.1%
FLOWERS, Quint pass complete to ADAMS, Rodney for 9 yards to the USF27, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USF ineligible downfield on pass (RUFF, Cameron) 5 yards to the USF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+41
15.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 41 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
12.7%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
12.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Dominique Threatt) to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+5
13.7%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
13.2%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Zelt Minor return for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
17.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 14 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
20.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
20.4%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+9
19.4%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
21.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+24
21.0%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Deatrick Nichols return for 24 yds to the SFla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5391% → 91%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
9.0%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
8.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-7
8.0%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-8
8.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 21
OWN 34
0
9.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31DOWNS
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:5412% → 10%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
11.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 7 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+23
14.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 23 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
15.1%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., QB hurry by AWOLEKE, Daniel, PENALTY USF pass interference (NICHOLS, Deatri) 15 yards to the USF23, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
18.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
17.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 7 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
16.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 1
OPP 14
0
9.7%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-3
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:21
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q3 2:15
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 54 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q4 13:09
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com