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TLSA

Tulsa 35 at UCF 20

UCF
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:56 · Caleb Houston punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense−17.8Score differential−9.7Pregame prior+3.0Garbage-time factor−7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Matthew Wright 47 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +8.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:32: Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:56: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 45 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +19.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:35: D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:04: Adrian Killins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright PAT BLOCKED) — UCF win probability +10.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 10 of 14TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:59TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:15UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 27, up 8
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:02TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 38, down 8
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:27UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:03TLSA 4th & 6 at UCF 45, down 8
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:22UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:42UCF 4th & 9 at TLSA 33, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:19TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:06UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:23TLSA 4th & 1 at UCF 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−2.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:31TLSA 4th & 6 at UCF 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−6.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:31UCF 4th & 2 at TLSA 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−1.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:23UCF 4th & 11 at TLSA 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:48TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 13:25UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 11:38TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  19. Q3 8:32UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 35, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:56UCF 4th & 11 at TLSA 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:54TLSA 4th & 5 at UCF 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−3.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:49UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:03TLSA 4th & 1 at UCF 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−2.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−1.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:13TLSA 4th & 12 at UCF 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  25. Q4 3:56UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 22, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
  26. Q4 3:56UCF 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:59UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:10TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:42TLSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:32TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:56TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:35TLSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:04UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
59.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2INT TD
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1441% → 40%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
59.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+3
59.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to James Flanders for 3 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-5
59.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+28
59.9%
Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD D.J. Killings return for 28 yds for a TD, (Nick Patti pass to Cal Bloom for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.8%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
59.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
59.9%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
59.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 54 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 3 yds to the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
60.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
60.5%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
60.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
60.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, downed at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
60.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+9
60.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
60.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
61.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
61.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 11 yds to the UCF 35 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
61.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian KillinsSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
61.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
62.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
62.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
62.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
61.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
61.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
61.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
61.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Jeremy BoykinsSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
62.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-4
63.2%
MILTON, M. pass complete to SMITH, Tre'Quan for 10 yards to the UCF31, PENALTY UCF ineligible downfield on pass 4 yards to the UCF17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
63.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith UCF Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
62.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:0136% → 41%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+60
63.6%
James Flanders run for 60 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.4%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.1%
James Flanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
60.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
60.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
60.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 15 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
61.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
61.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 36 Jawon Hamilton fumbled, forced by Matt Linscott, recovered by Tulsa Petera Wilson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2041% → 47%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
59.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
58.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+17
58.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (Shaquill Griffin) to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
58.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 3 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 9
OPP 33
0
56.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
58.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-2
57.1%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
53.2%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
52.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Joey ConnorsSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
53.2%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
54.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
54.1%
Tristan Payton run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-5
54.0%
MILTON, M. rush for 37 yards to the TLS40, out-of-bounds (MITCHELL, J.), PENALTY UCF illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+1
53.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
53.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+2
53.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:5248% → 52%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
51.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
50.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+3
51.2%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 9
50
+8
51.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
51.6%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
50.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by D.J. KillingsSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
50.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
50.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
50.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 15 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
50.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
50.2%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
50.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Shaquem GriffinSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
47.8%
Redford Jones 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:0851% → 54%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
50.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 11 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
51.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
52.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+24
50.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 24 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
53.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
53.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+3
52.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
54.8%
Tristan Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
54.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
52.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+48
53.6%
Matthew Wright 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3548% → 48%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.2%
James Flanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
52.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
53.4%
James Flanders run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
52.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:4053% → 63%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
52.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
52.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 4 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
54.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
55.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+18
54.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, personal foul (Petera Wilson Jr.) to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+47
62.9%
Matthew Wright 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.4%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
53.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
54.4%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
54.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
55.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
57.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
59.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+12
59.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 12 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
59.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-5
59.6%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
57.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
56.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
55.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-7
56.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Errol Clarke and Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 16
OWN 16
0
58.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 53 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 31 Chris Johnson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Cristian WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:2649% → 65%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
50.6%
Keenen Johnson run for 8 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
50.3%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
50.3%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
34.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
40.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jason Rae) to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+3
39.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+4
40.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
38.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
39.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:4363% → 83%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
36.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
36.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+3
36.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
36.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 28 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
16.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 45 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
21.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 18 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
22.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+2
21.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+14
21.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
23.0%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
22.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
21.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:5584% → 97%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
16.2%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+58
16.1%
James Flanders run for 58 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
14.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+10
14.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 10 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:316% → 16%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
5.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
5.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+22
5.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 22 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
5.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 14 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
6.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
6.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Hayden Jones for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+9
5.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 9 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
6.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 7 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
6.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
6.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
6.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
6.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.4%
Adrian Killins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:1091% → 94%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
9.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 41 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
8.4%
EVANS, D. pass complete to LUCAS, K. for 15 yards to the UCF19, out-of-bounds (GIBSON, Kyle), PENALTY TLS holding (ATKINSON, J.) 6 yards to the UCF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 16
OPP 40
-1
8.6%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+4
8.7%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+8
9.0%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+4
5.9%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
8.3%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
7.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
7.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 3:3295% → 98%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
5.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
4.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
4.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
4.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
2.3%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
2.3%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
2.1%
Raymond Taylor run for 2 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-5
2.2%
Raymond Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 12
OPP 45
+14
1.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 38 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 14 yds to the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 31DOWNS
10 plays · 76 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
1.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
1.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Jeremy BradySimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
1.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dontravious Wilson, broken up by Jeremy BradySimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+48
1.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 48 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
1.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 14 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
1.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 12 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
1.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
1.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
1.2%
Raymond Taylor run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-3
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 3
-1
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:56
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 45 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 8:32
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q3 0:35
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com