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MEM

Memphis 34 at Cincinnati 7

CIN
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-8.2CIN 19.2%Jason Stewart pass complete to JoeyMagnifico for 2 yds for a TD, (JakeElliott KICK)AWAY 20 - HOME 0 · Q2 12:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:23 · Jason Stewart pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−16.1Score differential−5.7Pregame prior−12.6Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:38: Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:23: Jason Stewart pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +8.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:40: Tony Pollard run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST down — MEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:28: Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:53: Jason Stewart pass complete to Anthony Miller for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:33MEM 4th & 4 at CIN 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:23MEM 4th & 7 at CIN 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00CIN 4th & 17 at MEM 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:23MEM 4th & 2 at CIN 2, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−7.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:23CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:28CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:17MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:34CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:53CIN 4th & 4 at MEM 4, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:54MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 10, up 34
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:13CIN 4th & 10 at MEM 10, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:10MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 25, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:21CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 41, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:58MEM 4th & 3 at CIN 14, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:38MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:23MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:28MEM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:53MEM Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:13CIN Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:2767% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
32.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
32.8%
Riley Ferguson run for 8 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
32.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
32.8%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 8 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
32.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
32.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 10 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
32.8%
Riley Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+4
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
34.2%
Jake Elliott 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.3%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
34.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
34.2%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Curtis Akins return for 20 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:1566% → 68%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
33.9%
Anthony Miller run for 5 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+8
33.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
33.9%
Tony Pollard run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
32.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 5 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+9
32.8%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Chris Morley return for 9 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3768% → 69%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
32.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
32.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+4
32.5%
Jason Stewart run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
30.9%
Jake Elliott 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 1:2332% → 31%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.2%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
32.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 6 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
32.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
32.4%
GREEN, Tion rush for 7 yards to the CIN44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MEMPHIS offside (SUTTLES, Ernest) 5 yards to the CIN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
32.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+4
31.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
31.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 17 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-13
31.9%
Hayden Moore sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard line CINCINNATI Penalty, intentional grounding (Hayden Moore) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 23
50
+7
31.5%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 16
OPP 43
-1
31.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
31.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:2171% → 81%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
29.3%
DORCEUS, D. rush for 20 yards to the MEMPHIS40 (COPELAND, M.), PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (TATE, Trevon) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
29.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+15
29.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 15 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.2%
Jason Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
29.3%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
28.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
28.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 5
50
+6
28.8%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 6 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
28.7%
Tony Pollard run for 12 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
27.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Sean Dykes for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+16
27.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 16 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
27.3%
Jason Stewart run for 9 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.3%
Jason Stewart run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
27.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 2Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.2%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
21.4%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
21.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
22.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
22.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
21.6%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
22.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
17.7%
Tony Pollard run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
17.6%
Tony Pollard run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-1
17.7%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
18.1%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for no gain to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
18.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
19.0%
Kahlil Lewis run for 7 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+10
19.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
20.0%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-8
19.8%
Hayden Moore sacked by Chris Morley for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
19.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
15.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+7
15.8%
STEWART, Jason pass incomplete to MILLER, Anthony (TYSON, Mike), PENALTY CIN pass interference (TYSON, Mike) 7 yards to the MEMPHIS21, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
15.6%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+1
15.8%
Tony Pollard run for 1 yd to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+7
16.3%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 7 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
16.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.7%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
16.6%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32 Tion Green fumbled, forced by Chris Morley, recovered by Memph Latarius Brady CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5387% → 90%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
12.9%
Jason Stewart run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
12.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-7
12.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Dustin Woodard) to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+14
13.1%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 14 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
12.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 10 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
9.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:4912% → 7%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
11.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
11.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Brayden Beard for 5 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
11.4%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+16
11.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 16 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
12.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Brayden BeardSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-5
11.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+5
7.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 5 yds to the Memph 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
7.6%
Jason Stewart run for 1 yd to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
6.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.8%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+30
6.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 37 , John Williams returns for 30 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:1493% → 98%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
6.7%
Tony Pollard run for no gain to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
6.7%
Tony Pollard run for 11 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
6.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
6.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+22
2.5%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Anthony Miller for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18DOWNS
18 plays · 71 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.6%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
3.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 6 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
3.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Brayden Beard for 9 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
3.7%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
3.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+8
3.7%
Hayden Moore run for 8 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
4.0%
Deionte Buckley run for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
3.9%
Deionte Buckley run for 6 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
4.1%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
4.1%
Tion Green run for 14 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
4.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Avery Johnson for 6 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-2
4.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+7
3.9%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
4.5%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
4.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 3 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
3.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
3.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
1.4%
Jason Stewart pass incomplete to Sean Dykes, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
1.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+6
1.4%
Jason Stewart run for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
1.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 55 yds, downed at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:102% → 2%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
2.1%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
2.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 15 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
2.3%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
2.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+15
2.4%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to GRAY, Devin, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (MAULET, Arthur) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS25, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
2.5%
Deionte Buckley run for 15 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
0.7%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
0.7%
Devin Gray run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+6
0.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
0.7%
Jason Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-9
0.7%
Jason Stewart sacked by Caleb Ashworth for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 22
OWN 16
+9
0.8%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 9 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+20
0.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 37 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 20 yds to the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
0.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Carter Jacobs) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.7%
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
0.7%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-5
0.7%
Hayden Moore sacked by Jonathan Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 41 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
0.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FUMBLE
14 plays · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+2
0.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+13
0.5%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 13 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
0.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
0.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+4
0.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
50
+13
0.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 13 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+8
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-1
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 3
OPP 14
-2
0.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 16 Patrick Taylor Jr. fumbled, forced by Eric Wilson, recovered by Cincy Eric WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
0.2%
Deionte Buckley run for 6 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
0.2%
Deionte Buckley run for 4 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.2%
Deionte Buckley run for 9 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+6
0.2%
Deionte Buckley run for 6 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:23
Jason Stewart pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-8.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:40
Tony Pollard run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST down
-4.4
TD · Q3 10:53
Jason Stewart pass complete to Anthony Miller for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com