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LOU

Louisville 10 at Houston 36

HOU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2016 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:30 · Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 206Pregame prior−1.1Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+28.7Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.5Blowout margin+17.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:18: Duke Catalon 13 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +12.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:53: Duke Catalon 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +13.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:13: Chance Allen 50 Yd pass from Linell Bonner (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +16.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:02: Cole Hikutini 12 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +10.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. SAFETY · Q4 3:55: Team Safety — HOU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:41LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:15HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49HOU 4th & 14 at LOU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:42LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:14HOU 4th & 13 at LOU 44, up 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−1.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    30.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:10LOU 4th & 19 at LOU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−5.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:00LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−3.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:34LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:11HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 21, up 31
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:41LOU 4th & 17 at HOU 38, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:42HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 17, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:02LOU 4th & 3 at HOU 12, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:06HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:29LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:58HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 9, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:51LOU 4th & 9 at HOU 9, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−2.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:38HOU 4th & 1 at LOU 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:25LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:57HOU 4th & 4 at LOU 29, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:14HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 26, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:30LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 31, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:49HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:18HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:53HOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:13HOU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:02LOU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
12.9%
Duke Catalon 13 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0887% → 86%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
12.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Kiola Mahoni) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
13.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
13.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 7 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
13.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
13.7%
Mason King punt for 58 yds , Collin Wilder returns for no gain to the Houst 15 Collin Wilder fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:5414% → 16%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
13.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 6 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
13.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
14.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
14.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Drew Bailey) to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 5
OWN 31
0
14.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Keith Corbin for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
14.9%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
15.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
15.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Dillon Birden for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
15.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
15.7%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:3684% → 81%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
15.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 4 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
16.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
16.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
16.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Brandon Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+8
17.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 8 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-5
17.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Smith) to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+6
18.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
18.7%
Mason King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3419% → 20%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
18.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+15
18.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
19.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
19.9%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
20.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
19.8%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0380% → 79%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
19.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
20.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
20.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
21.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-14
21.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 14 yards to the Lvile 37 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, forced by Ed Oliver, recovered by Houst Cameron MalveauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1023% → 24%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
22.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
22.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+25
22.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 25 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
23.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-5
24.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
23.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
24.1%
Ty Cummings 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:5975% → 73%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
24.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-5
25.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
25.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-5
26.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (James Quick) to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 16
OWN 9
0
26.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 16
OWN 9
+11
26.8%
Mason King punt for 58 yds , Collin Wilder returns for 11 yds to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1827% → 42%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
26.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
27.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Braylon Jones) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+2
27.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
27.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
27.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 13
OPP 44
+15
26.5%
Dane Roy pass complete to Byron Simpson for 15 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
29.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 16 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
41.5%
Duke Catalon 13 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:0062% → 57%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
39.4%
Jackson, Lamar pass complete to Samuel, Traveon for 32 yards to the HOUSTON42, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Mahoni, Kiola) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+20
40.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 20 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-9
40.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 19
OWN 27
0
42.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
43.1%
Mason King punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:1145% → 65%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
45.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 12 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
47.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
47.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 12 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
48.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
48.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+10
48.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
49.7%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
48.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
49.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+20
51.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 20 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
51.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.9%
Duke Catalon 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4740% → 37%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
60.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Kiola Mahoni) to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+7
61.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
61.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
62.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+6
62.7%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , Collin Wilder returns for 6 yds to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:4067% → 84%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
67.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 5
50
+50
83.8%
Chance Allen 50 Yd pass from Linell Bonner (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3216% → 12%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
82.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
84.8%
Jackson, Lamar rush for 6 yards to the HOUSTON46, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Christian, Geron) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-7
86.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 27
OWN 31
+8
87.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+3
88.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 16
OWN 42
+3
88.1%
Mason King punt for 49 yds , Collin Wilder returns for 3 yds to the Houst 12 Collin Wilder fumbled, recovered by Houst Collin WilderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1689% → 90%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
88.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-1
89.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
90.5%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
90.3%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:227% → 5%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
93.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaire Alexander, broken up by Ed OliverSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+20
94.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 20 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
93.0%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Garrett Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 17
OPP 38
0
94.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 17
OPP 38
0
94.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 17
OPP 38
+9
94.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
92.8%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1194% → 94%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
94.4%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Stacy Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
94.3%
Dane Roy punt for 47 yds, downed at the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:365% → 15%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
95.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 6 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
95.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
95.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 21 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
95.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 14
OPP 23
-5
95.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Geron Christian) to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 19
OPP 28
+13
96.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
96.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
85.3%
Cole Hikutini 12 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5287% → 87%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Duke Catalon, broken up by Jonathan GreenardSimilar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.7%
Dane Roy punt for 31 yds, downed at the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FUMBLE
12 plays · 46 yds · 5:1013% → 8%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-11
87.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jeremy Winchester for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+4
88.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+13
89.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+7
88.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
89.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-13
90.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 13 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 21
OWN 44
+22
91.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 22 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
90.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
91.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
91.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
91.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 6 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
92.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 8 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4395% → 95%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
94.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
94.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 1 yd to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
94.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Devonte FieldsSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
94.5%
Dane Roy punt for 44 yds, downed at the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:596% → 4%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
93.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
93.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Ed OliverSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
94.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
94.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 22 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-7
94.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Nick Thurman for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+18
95.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
95.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
96.2%
Blanton Creque 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:0397% → 98%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
97.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
97.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
97.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
97.6%
Catalon, Duke rush for 2 yards to the HOUSTON47, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside (Robinson, G.G.) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
50
+14
97.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 14 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
97.9%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
97.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
98.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-1
97.9%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:052% → 2%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
97.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 9 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-6
98.0%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Steven Taylor and Nick Thurman for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Mason King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2298% → 99%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
98.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 18 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
98.4%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
98.7%
Dillon Birden run for 8 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+5
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
98.8%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
99.0%
Ty Cummings 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27SF
10 plays · -25 yds · 1:531% → 0%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
99.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 18 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
99.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Kiola Mahoni) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 15
OWN 28
-5
99.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Khalil Hunter) to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 20
OWN 23
-10
99.3%
Jackson, Lamar pass complete to Dawkins, Seth for 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE33, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Hunter, Khalil) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 30
OWN 13
-13
99.9%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.7%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-1
99.8%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole Hikutini, broken up by Tyus BowserSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-5
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-4
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:13
Chance Allen 50 Yd pass from Linell Bonner (Ty Cummings Kick)
+16.6
TD · Q2 6:53
Duke Catalon 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)
+13.4
TD · Q2 12:18
Duke Catalon 13 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com