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TLSA

Tulsa 40 at Navy 42

NAVY
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.1NAVY 66.0%Redford Jones 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 28 · Q2 0:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:42 · Redford Jones 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+5.9Pregame prior−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential+2.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:28: Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 31 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +14.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 13:41: Will Worth run for 15 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:34: Dane Evans 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TLSA win probability +21.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:58: Will Worth run for 44 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:30: Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 22 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +30.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:46NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11TLSA 4th & 9 at NAVY 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:53TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:09NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−1.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:42TLSA 4th & 8 at NAVY 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 49, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:59TLSA 4th & 4 at NAVY 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−2.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:25NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−3.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:50TLSA 4th & 8 at NAVY 45, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−1.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    17.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:45NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.0%−9.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:41NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:25TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:53NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:38NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:09TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:01NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:28TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:41NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:34TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:58NAVY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:30TLSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:1947% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
46.8%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+31
46.8%
Dishan Romine run for 31 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
46.8%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.7%
Darryl Bonner run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
47.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 74 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 1:3947% → 47%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.2%
Darryl Bonner run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.2%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
47.1%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
47.3%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
47.6%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
47.6%
Shawn White run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
47.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-5
47.5%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Jamir Tillman) to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
47.4%
Alex Barta punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1852% → 53%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
47.8%
James Flanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+11
47.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+38
47.5%
James Flanders run for 38 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
47.0%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+5
47.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 5 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
47.0%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
47.0%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
47.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to James FlandersSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
47.3%
Redford Jones 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1847% → 52%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
47.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 32 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
48.4%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+41
51.5%
Dishan Romine run for 41 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
50.5%
James Flanders run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
50.4%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-2
50.4%
James Flanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+22
50.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 22 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
49.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
49.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-15
50.1%
EVANS, D. pass complete to LUCAS, K. for 12 yards to the NAVY49 (THOMASSON, D), PENALTY TLS face mask (WRIGHT, W.) 15 yards to the TLS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 24
OWN 24
+6
50.9%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+10
51.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Craig Scott returns for 10 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:3152% → 62%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
51.6%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+11
52.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 11 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
52.8%
Myles Swain run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
53.3%
Shawn White run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
53.4%
Will Worth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 40 Will Worth fumbled, recovered by Navy Will WorthSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+3
52.6%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+22
52.6%
Toneo Gulley run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
53.5%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
53.5%
Will Worth run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.3%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2941% → 49%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
59.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
58.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+56
50.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 56 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 7:0853% → 69%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
53.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 24 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
55.2%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 6
50
+6
55.3%
Dishan Romine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
55.5%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
55.3%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+20
54.7%
Will Worth run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
55.6%
Dishan Romine run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
55.6%
Shawn White run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
54.9%
Joshua Walker run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+1
54.2%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
55.6%
Will Worth sacked by Kolton Shindelar for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
55.5%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
60.1%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Andrew Wood) to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
69.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 11 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 2:1933% → 34%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
67.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
67.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 25 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
65.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 22 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
63.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+7
66.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+5
67.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
66.1%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
69.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
66.0%
Redford Jones 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
69.4%
Will Worth sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12INT
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:0133% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.2%
Keevan Lucas run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.8%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
64.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
65.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
65.9%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Alohi GilmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
65.3%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
64.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+17
68.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 17 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
64.6%
Dane Evans pass intercepted, touchback. Tyris Wooten return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
72.2%
Shawn White run for 7 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
72.7%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
71.6%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
72.6%
Darryl Bonner run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
72.7%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
73.2%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.2%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+14
73.5%
Myles Swain run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
74.6%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
74.8%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
74.1%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-2
73.2%
Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1927% → 46%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
72.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 15 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
70.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
70.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
70.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
69.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+31
54.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 31 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4761% → 87%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.1%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
60.3%
Toneo Gulley run for 11 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
62.4%
Toneo Gulley run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
65.0%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
65.1%
Myles Swain run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-10
64.8%
WORTH, Will rush for 2 yards to the TLS32 (BARROW, W.), PENALTY NAVY holding 10 yards to the TLS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-5
62.0%
WORTH, Will pass complete to CARMONA, Tyler for 12 yards to the TLS32 (BARROW, W.;SUITS, C.), PENALTY NAVY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TLS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+28
60.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 28 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
68.0%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-1
68.0%
Will Worth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
86.6%
Will Worth run for 15 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:0719% → 41%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
81.1%
Keevan Lucas run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
79.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
78.7%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
78.0%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
78.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
78.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh Atkinson, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+44
84.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 44 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.4%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.3%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Dane Evans 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:3668% → 89%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
67.5%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
67.3%
Toneo Gulley run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+19
67.2%
Toneo Gulley run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
71.2%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+44
89.2%
Will Worth run for 44 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:2810% → 43%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
90.5%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
90.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
89.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 20 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
87.7%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
87.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+9
89.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
87.4%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
57.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 22 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF GAME
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:4573% → 86%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
73.4%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
73.6%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.5%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
74.6%
Myles Swain run for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
78.1%
Jamir Tillman run for 8 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
83.6%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
50
+15
85.5%
TULSA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jesse Brubaker) to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
87.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-2
85.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:30
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 22 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-30.2
TD · Q4 10:34
Dane Evans 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-21.7
TD · Q4 13:41
Will Worth run for 15 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com