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USF

South Florida 49 at Memphis 42

MEM
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:04 · Riley Ferguson punt for 41 yds, downed at the SFla 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior−11.8Home team on offense−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:00: Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) MEMPHIS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — USF win probability +14.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:40: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 40 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +20.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:05: Marlon Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +26.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:46: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 57 yds for a TD, (Riley Ferguson pass to Phil Mayhue for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +46.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +36.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:50MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43USF 4th & 2 at USF 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:04MEM 4th & 4 at USF 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43MEM 4th & 8 at USF 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:57USF 4th & 9 at MEM 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06MEM 4th & 10 at USF 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:41USF 4th & 3 at MEM 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59USF 4th & 7 at MEM 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:59MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 42, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02USF 4th & 4 at USF 26, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:48MEM 4th & 4 at USF 12, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−13.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:48USF 4th & 20 at USF 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−9.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:05MEM 4th & 2 at USF 33, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%−2.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:53MEM 4th & 3 at USF 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−15.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−19.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:51USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:21USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:13MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:41USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:45MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:17MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:00USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:31MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:40USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:05USF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−1.8
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:46MEM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.3%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.1%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:46USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0963% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.0%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
37.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 7 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
37.0%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-9
37.0%
Rodney Adams run for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+20
37.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 20 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
36.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 49 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:5037% → 37%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
37.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 14 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
37.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
37.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
37.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
37.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
37.0%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+5
37.1%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+7
37.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 35 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
37.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
37.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
37.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel Montiel, broken up by Mike LoveSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
37.2%
Riley Ferguson punt for 41 yds, downed at the SFla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 0:3263% → 66%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
36.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+92
33.7%
Rodney Adams run for 92 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:3234% → 36%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
34.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 2 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
34.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
34.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 8 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
34.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+22
34.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 22 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
35.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
35.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
34.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
35.6%
Jake Elliott 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:4665% → 65%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
35.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 14 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
34.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
34.8%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+12
35.0%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
34.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
34.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah Dillon, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
34.4%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
34.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds, downed at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 4:0034% → 42%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
33.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 8 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+1
34.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
33.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
33.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 9 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+12
34.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 12 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
34.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+18
34.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Ronnie Hoggins) to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
35.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
35.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
34.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+29
32.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 29 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
34.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.9%
Riley Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:2561% → 69%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
39.2%
MACK, Marlon rush for 24 yards to the USF42, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USF holding (LARKIN, Brooks) 9 yards to the USF9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+20
39.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 20 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
38.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+11
38.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 11 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
37.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
37.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
37.8%
Rodney Adams run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+48
31.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 48 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5631% → 42%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
31.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
32.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 9 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+10
32.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
33.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 12 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
41.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11MISSED FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 5:3961% → 64%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
38.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
38.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+1
38.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+15
38.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 15 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
35.4%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to SCANTLING, Marq, PENALTY USF holding off-setting, PENALTY MEM pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
37.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+14
36.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 41 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Donald Pennington) to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
35.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
35.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 13 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
35.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 6 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
35.4%
Tyre McCants run for 5 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
35.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+6
35.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
35.8%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete (SUTTLES, Ernest), PENALTY MEM 12 men on the field (AVERY, Genard) 5 yards to the MEM11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-1
35.8%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
36.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Deatrick Nichols) to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
35.7%
Brandon Behr 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
37.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 14 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
38.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
37.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 8 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
39.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Mechane SladeSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
38.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
37.8%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
38.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
37.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Jonathan CookSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
39.1%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:3640% → 58%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
39.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+8
39.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
40.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
41.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 5 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+35
42.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 35 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
45.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
56.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
56.8%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Deatrick Nichols return for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:2847% → 65%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
52.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 9 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
51.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 3 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
52.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 30 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
49.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 27 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
34.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) MEMPHIS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:1841% → 61%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
41.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
50
+9
43.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
44.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
46.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Drew Kyser) to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+21
42.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 21 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
46.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 12 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
46.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4445% → 70%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
55.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
55.6%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23 Quinton Flowers fumbled, recovered by SFla Quinton FlowersSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
56.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
54.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 7 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+9
52.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
50
+10
51.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 10 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
51.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
30.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 40 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:4637% → 48%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
37.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 17 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
39.7%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete, PENALTY MEM holding (TATE, Trevon) 10 yards to the MEM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 20
OWN 35
-1
36.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+17
36.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 17 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+20
40.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 20 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
43.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+9
43.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
43.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
43.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
41.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel Montiel, broken up by Nate GodwinSimilar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
47.6%
Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0057% → 53%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
43.0%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-11
45.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 3 yds to the SFla 29 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Jeremi Hall) to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
47.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds, downed at the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:0450% → 48%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
49.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+13
50.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 13 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
51.4%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+13
47.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 13 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
50.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+50
48.3%
Jake Elliott 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:0059% → 90%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
41.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+35
42.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 35 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
36.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+13
36.0%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
36.0%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
36.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
9.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
58.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 57 yds for a TD, (Riley Ferguson pass to Phil Mayhue for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:5651% → 96%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
49.0%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jonathan Cook) to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
44.2%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 49 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Barr) to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 17
OWN 39
+6
47.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+6
46.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+6
44.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
43.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
44.0%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+13
45.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 13 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
40.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
4.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 0:4816% → 20%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
15.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+21
18.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 21 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
18.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Deadrin Senat) to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
25.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 6 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+5
26.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 5 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
26.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
22.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0397% → 97%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 2Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 11
OWN 2
-1
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:46
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 57 yds for a TD, (Riley Ferguson pass to Phil Mayhue for Two-Point Conversion)
+46.5
TD · Q4 1:46
Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)
-36.2
TD · Q4 7:05
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)
-26.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com