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SMU

SMU 55 at East Carolina 31

ECU
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-13.7ECU 19.5%Horace Richardson 80 Yd InterceptionReturn (Josh Williams Kick)AWAY 45 - HOME 24 · Q3 11:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:32 · Horace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−23.8Score differential−12.1Pregame prior+3.8Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:05: Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +9.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:53: Philip Nelson pass intercepted for a TD Horace Richardson return for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +12.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:09: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 22 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +13.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Zay Jones 8 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +9.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:32: Horace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +13.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48SMU 4th & 3 at ECU 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:07ECU 4th & 1 at SMU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:47ECU 4th & 10 at SMU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:36SMU 4th & 7 at ECU 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:17ECU 4th & 1 at SMU 26, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:32ECU 4th & 9 at SMU 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:32ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:09SMU 4th & 4 at ECU 15, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:09ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 39, down 24
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:49ECU 4th & 7 at SMU 22, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:19SMU 4th & 20 at ECU 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:48ECU 4th & 24 at ECU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:00SMU 4th & 2 at ECU 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:45SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:41SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:05SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:53SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:09SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:32SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:49SMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:19ECU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
58.7%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-1
58.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-5
58.7%
Ben Hicks sacked by Fred Presley for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
58.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:4459% → 60%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
50
0
59.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
50
+4
59.0%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+39
59.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 39 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
60.0%
Philip Nelson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:4940% → 40%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
59.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+24
59.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 24 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
59.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 23 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
59.4%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+17
59.3%
James Proche pass complete to Ben Hicks for 2 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Demage Bailey) to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
59.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+7
59.3%
Kevin Johnson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
59.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 1 yd to the ECaro 3Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
59.7%
Josh Williams 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+1
59.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 1 yd Quay Johnson fumbled, forced by Kevin Johnson, recovered by SMU Justin LawlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:2341% → 43%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
59.2%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
58.9%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
58.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+16
58.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 16 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden West, broken up by Bobby FulpSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
57.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 4:5158% → 63%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
58.1%
Devin Anderson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
58.8%
Devin Anderson run for 8 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
58.9%
Devin Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
59.0%
James Summers run for 14 yds to the SMU 33 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Quay Johnson) to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
59.0%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
58.9%
Devin Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
57.3%
Devin Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
58.1%
NELSON, Philip deep out pass complete to JONES, Zay for 38 yards to the SMU0, clock 01:44, PENALTY ECU pass interference (JONES, Zay) 15 yards to the ECU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+14
57.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 14 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
58.1%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+9
58.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Terrell Green for 9 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
58.7%
James Summers run for 12 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
62.6%
James Summers run for 14 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1340% → 46%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
60.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
60.1%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
60.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 6 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
59.9%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
59.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Bobby FulpSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+39
54.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 39 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:5457% → 59%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
56.6%
Devin Anderson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.8%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
57.9%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+8
57.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Terrell Green for 8 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
57.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 28 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
58.6%
James Summers run for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
58.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
57.7%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
59.8%
Davis Plowman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
58.7%
PLOWMAN, Davis kickoff 48 yards to the SMU17, PROCHE, James return to the SMU30 (CARLOS, Devin), PENALTY ECU offside off-setting, PENALTY SMU illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 3:4243% → 56%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
57.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Justin BrownSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
57.6%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+8
58.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
57.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 12 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
55.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+32
55.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 32 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
54.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
54.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Cam WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
55.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
54.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
54.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
44.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10INT TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1249% → 39%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
50
+13
49.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 13 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
49.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
50.7%
Philip Nelson run for 3 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
50.7%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+70
38.5%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted for a TD Horace Richardson return for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
36.6%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 46 James Summers fumbled, forced by Jackson Mitchell, recovered by SMU Jackson MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
34.1%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
34.2%
James Proche pass incomplete to Jeremiah Gaines, broken up by Cam WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
34.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
35.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
34.6%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
34.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
34.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 10 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
36.6%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted Darrion Millines return for 12 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:1268% → 81%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
31.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+12
31.6%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete, PENALTY ECU pass interference (SEARGENT, Corey) 12 yards to the ECU22, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
31.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
32.0%
Braeden West run for no gain to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
18.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 22 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 1:0923% → 35%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
23.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
24.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
22.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
23.8%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
50
0
25.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
50
+15
24.8%
MINSHEW, Grdnr crossing pass incomplete to JONES, Zay, PENALTY SMU personal foul (COX, RC) 15 yards to the SMU35, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
25.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to James SummersSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
25.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
26.7%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
26.3%
MINSHEW, Grdnr deep out pass incomplete to JONES, Zay, PENALTY SMU pass interference (RICHARDSON, H.) 15 yards to the SMU8, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
35.4%
Zay Jones 8 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16INT TD
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:2833% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
33.0%
James Summers run for 17 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
33.9%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
34.0%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
34.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Messiah Rice) to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+8
33.7%
Devin Anderson run for 8 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-5
34.6%
ANDERSON, Devin rush over right end for 5 yards to the SMU26 (RICHARDSON, H.), PENALTY ECU illegal formation 5 yards to the SMU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
33.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+3
33.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+80
19.5%
Horace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
19.4%
SUMMERS, James rush up middle for 11 yards to the SMU46 (GARY, Demerick), PENALTY ECU personal foul 15 yards to the ECU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+4
18.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+16
17.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 16 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
19.4%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
19.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 41 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:5288% → 95%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
11.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+7
11.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
11.8%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-1
11.8%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+35
12.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 35 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
11.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
11.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+9
11.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-7
10.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the ECaro 13 SMU Penalty, personal foul (Yiannis Bowden) to the ECaro 21Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
10.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-4
11.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+10
11.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 10 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
5.5%
Josh Williams 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
5.4%
WILLIAMS, Josh kickoff 65 yards to the ECU0, touchback, PENALTY SMU offside (BURKS, C.) 5 yards to the SMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
6.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+8
7.0%
Devin Anderson run for 8 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
7.0%
Gardner Minshew run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
7.0%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
7.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
7.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 29 yds, downed at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:3096% → 99%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
4.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
4.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+11
4.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
4.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
50
+28
4.0%
Braeden West run for 28 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
3.9%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
3.0%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
3.1%
Ben Hicks run for 5 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.8%
Kevin Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:301% → 3%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
0.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+5
0.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
1.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 28 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
1.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+4
1.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+20
1.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 20 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.4%
Devin Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
2.0%
Braeden West run for 13 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
2.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-5
2.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (Chauncey Briggs) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 20
OPP 45
0
2.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Austin RolfeSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
2.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
2.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
2.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+7
2.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
2.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete, broken up by Demerick GarySimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
2.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 14 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
2.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 1
50
+1
2.6%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
2.5%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 18
OWN 43
-6
2.2%
Philip Nelson sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 24
OWN 37
0
2.2%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 24
OWN 37
0
2.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 34 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
1.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
1.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
1.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
1.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 16 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
1.0%
Joseph Paden run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
1.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
1.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+2
1.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:32
Horace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)
-13.7
TD · Q2 1:09
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 22 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q2 4:53
Philip Nelson pass intercepted for a TD Horace Richardson return for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com