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CIN

Cincinnati 3 at UCF 24

UCF
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:39 · Caleb Houston punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense+31.6Score differential+22.6Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:18: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 10 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST down — UCF win probability +2.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q3 6:53: Sam Geraci punt blocked by Tre Neal blocked by Tre Neal Justin McDonald return for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +10.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:12: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 12 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down — UCF win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:23: McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Cincy 25 — UCF win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:45: Jawon Hamilton run for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11CIN made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:52CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:12UCF 4th & 1 at CIN 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:12CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:20CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:36CIN 4th & 20 at UCF 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:36UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:50CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:50UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 42, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:27CIN 4th & 8 at UCF 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:46UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−3.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:59UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−3.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:53CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:53CIN 4th & 9 at UCF 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00UCF 4th & 3 at CIN 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:45CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:56UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:44CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 13, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:39UCF 4th & 13 at CIN 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:56CIN 4th & 5 at UCF 5, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:54UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 14, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:20UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:45UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
78.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
78.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
78.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
78.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
78.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
78.0%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
78.0%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-2
78.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds , Chris Johnson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5478% → 77%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
77.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 7 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
77.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+11
77.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
77.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
50
+5
78.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
78.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+21
78.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 21 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
78.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+9
78.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 9 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
78.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 8 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
78.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
78.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+22
77.4%
Matthew Wright 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.3%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
77.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
77.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Marquise CopelandSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+22
77.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 46 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 22 yds to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:2877% → 80%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
77.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
77.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
77.6%
Adrian Killins run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
77.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 9 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
77.6%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
77.6%
Adrian Killins run for 8 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+6
77.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
77.6%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.6%
Adrian Killins run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.8%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
78.7%
Hayden Moore sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-2
79.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
79.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:5379% → 78%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
79.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 6 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
79.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 7 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
79.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
79.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
79.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+5
78.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
78.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 5:1021% → 21%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
79.4%
Avery Johnson run for 9 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+21
78.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
50
+14
78.3%
Hayden Moore run for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
78.3%
Ross Trail run for 5 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-10
77.6%
MOORE, Hayden pass complete to LEWIS, Kahlil for 8 yards to the UCF23, out-of-bounds (KILLINGS, D.J.), PENALTY CIN holding (CUNNINGHAM, K.) 10 yards to the UCF41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+30
78.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 30 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
77.6%
Ross Trail run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-2
77.8%
Tion Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 13
OPP 14
-7
78.7%
Hayden Moore sacked by Errol Clarke for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+38
78.9%
Josh Pasley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
78.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+11
77.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 38 , Brayden Beard returns for 11 yds to the Cincy 38 Brayden Beard fumbled, forced by Tre Neal,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:1922% → 22%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
77.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 17 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
76.5%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
76.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 12 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
75.7%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
75.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
76.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by D.J. KillingsSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
77.6%
Josh Pasley 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
79.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
79.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Hayden Jones for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
79.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
80.2%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
79.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Hayden JonesSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+6
78.2%
Chequan Burkett run for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
75.6%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to LEWIS, Kahlil (BOYKINS, Jeremy), PENALTY UCF holding (BOYKINS, Jeremy) 10 yards to the UCF38, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
75.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
75.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
75.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate Cole, broken up by D.J. KillingsSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
77.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, downed at the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1279% → 78%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
78.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 3
-1
79.3%
UCF Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
79.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
78.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete UCF Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+4
78.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 4 yds to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
77.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
78.6%
Hayden Moore sacked by Errol Clarke for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 41 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by UCF Shaquem Griffin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15MISSED FG
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1882% → 82%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
81.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 10 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
82.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+48
82.0%
Matthew Wright 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.2%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
77.6%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
78.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
77.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 13 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
76.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
75.6%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
75.8%
Ross Trail run for 3 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Grant Coleman, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
76.0%
Hayden Moore sacked by Errol Clarke for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 46 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan Stout , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+6
78.2%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
78.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, downed at the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
78.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+2
79.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
79.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 6 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
79.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 5 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
79.3%
MILTON, M. pass complete to SMITH, Tre'Quan for 12 yards to the UCF35 (TYSON, Mike), PENALTY UCF holding (AKINS, Jordan) 10 yards to the UCF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 20
OWN 13
0
79.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor Oldham, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 20
OWN 13
0
78.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 20
OWN 13
0
78.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith UCF Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 20
OWN 13
0
77.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 54 yds, downed at the Cincy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0422% → 11%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
77.6%
Kahlil Lewis run for 5 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-3
76.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
78.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+23
88.9%
Sam Geraci punt blocked by Tre Neal blocked by Tre Neal Justin McDonald return for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.4%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
87.6%
Tion Green run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
50
0
86.7%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
50
-8
87.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+9
88.6%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
88.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1291% → 94%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
91.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 12 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+12
91.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 12 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
91.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
91.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
91.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
50
-2
91.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+5
91.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
93.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
91.9%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
91.8%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+17
91.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 17 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
91.2%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
90.8%
Chad Banschbach run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
50
+47
90.8%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Seyvon Lowry return for 32 yds to the UCF 18 UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Seyvon Lowry) to the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:3895% → 99%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.0%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
95.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tristan Payton, broken up by Grant ColemanSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Chad Banschbach run for no gain to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
98.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Malik Clements) to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 6 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
98.8%
Deionte Buckley run for 5 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
98.8%
Deionte Buckley run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Joey ConnorsSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
98.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
99.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 10 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-5
99.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
99.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 82 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Tshumbi Johnson, broken up by Chequan BurkettSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
99.1%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+14
99.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 14 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+52
99.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 52 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Brayden BeardSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
98.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 6 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+9
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.5%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
99.5%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 10 UCF Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+4
99.6%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+10
99.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 50 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 10 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.4%
Deionte Buckley run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
99.4%
Deionte Buckley run for 8 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chad Banschbach for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+6
99.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 6 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chad BanschbachSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Maurice RussellSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.3%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Brandon Scott return for 4 yds to the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q3 6:53
Sam Geraci punt blocked by Tre Neal blocked by Tre Neal Justin McDonald return for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+10.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:23
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Cincy 25
+4.3
TD · Q4 11:45
Jawon Hamilton run for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com