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MEM

Memphis 51 at SMU 7

SMU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:58 · Spencer Smith punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 36 , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 8 SMU Penalty, illegal block (Eric Sutton) to the SMU 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−21.6Score differential−9.6Garbage-time factor−4.3Pregame prior−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:33: Michael Armstrong kickoff for 64 yds , Darrell Henderson return for 99 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +5.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:10: Jake Elliott 43 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +5.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:08: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +5.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:10: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +6.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:25: Jake Elliott 44 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +3.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:06MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MEM 4th & 26 at MEM 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:45SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10MEM 4th & 4 at SMU 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:08SMU 4th & 5 at MEM 32, down 24
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.4
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:58MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:41SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 45, down 24
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:25MEM 4th & 8 at SMU 27, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:19SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 1, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:58SMU 4th & 2 at MEM 38, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:30MEM 4th & 6 at SMU 14, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:30SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 49, down 44
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:04MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 9, up 44
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 8 at MEM 41, down 44
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:15MEM 4th & 8 at SMU 24, up 44
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:47MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 45, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:10MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:18MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:47SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:33MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:08MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:10MEM Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:09MEM Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
38.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
38.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:3861% → 62%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
39.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+50
38.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 50 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
38.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
38.9%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
38.9%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
38.9%
Ben Hicks sacked by Arthur Maulet for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 6 Ben Hicks fumbled, recovered by Memph Jared Gentry , return for 0 yards , return for 40 yds to the SMU 0 SMU Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (Courtland Sutton) to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3562% → 63%
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
38.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
37.4%
James Proche run for 2 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 0
0
37.3%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete, PENALTY SMU illegal motion off-setting, PENALTY MEM_ROAD holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
37.4%
HICKS, Ben pass complete to PROCHE, James for 14 yards to the SMU45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SMU illegal touching (PROCHE, James) 0 yards to the SMU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 44 yds, downed at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.8%
Tony Pollard run for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
36.7%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
36.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
36.6%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
36.6%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
37.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 56 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:1636% → 39%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+26
35.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
36.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
36.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 11 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
36.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
36.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
36.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
36.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
36.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
39.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 16 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
33.7%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
33.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
33.4%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
33.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 58 yds, downed at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:5967% → 68%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
32.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 6 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
32.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
32.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-11
32.4%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 11 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 21
OWN 16
-5
32.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 11
0
32.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller MEMPHIS Penalty, 1D ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 11
0
32.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 44 yds, downed at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
33.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
33.6%
Myron Gailliard run for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+4
33.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+6
33.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 6 yds to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:0370% → 75%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
30.5%
DORCEUS, D. rush for 3 yards to the MEM_ROAD26 (CLEMONS, Rodney), PENALTY MEM_ROAD holding (KYSER, Drew) 10 yards to the MEM_ROAD13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+55
30.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 55 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
29.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
29.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+6
29.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
24.7%
Jake Elliott 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
27.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
27.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
27.1%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-3
27.0%
Ben Hicks sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 35 Ben Hicks fumbled, recovered by Memph Ernest Suttles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:0578% → 83%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
22.5%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
16.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
20.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 13 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
21.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 7
50
+13
21.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 13 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
21.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-1
22.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
21.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
21.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 31 yds, downed at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
16.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
16.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-2
17.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 3Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 8
OWN 3
-1
17.2%
SMITH, Spencer punt 57 yards to the SMU40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MEM_ROAD false start (ROSS, B.J.) 1 yards to the MEM_ROAD2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+6
17.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 36 , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 8 SMU Penalty, illegal block (Eric Sutton) to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
18.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
18.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
18.8%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
18.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 1:4687% → 94%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
13.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 12 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
13.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 9 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-4
12.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 34 Doroland Dorceus fumbled, recovered by Memph Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
14.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 10 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
13.2%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+25
13.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 25 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
12.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
12.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+9
12.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
6.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19Uncategorized
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
11.0%
GAILLIARD, M. rush for 38 yards to the MEM_ROAD37 (AKINS, Curtis), PENALTY SMU holding (BROWN, Evan) 10 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:3092% → 96%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
7.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 12 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
7.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 12 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
7.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
6.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
7.4%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+7
7.7%
Tony Pollard run for 7 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
4.1%
Jake Elliott 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
4.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
3.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 9
OWN 7
-6
3.9%
Ben Hicks sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 15
OWN 1
0
3.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4497% → 98%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
2.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
2.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
2.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 8 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
2.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 20 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
2.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
1.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
1.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 10 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
1.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 19 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
1.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
1.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
1.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
1.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for no gain to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
1.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Donald PenningtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+43
1.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 43 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
1.2%
Tony Pollard run for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
1.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
1.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
1.4%
Jake Elliott 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
0.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
0.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Chauncey LanierSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
0.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
1.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
1.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+6
1.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Mechane Slade for 6 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
1.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
0.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 12 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
0.5%
Myron Gailliard run for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
0.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Thomas, broken up by Ernest SuttlesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
0.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
0.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28DOWNS
13 plays · 56 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.6%
Tony Pollard run for 5 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
0.6%
Tony Pollard run for 6 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
0.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+16
0.6%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Drew Bishop for 16 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
0.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 6
50
+1
0.5%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Sean Dykes for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+12
0.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
0.5%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+7
0.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 7 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
0.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-3
0.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
0.5%
Jason Stewart pass incomplete to John Williams, broken up by Mason GentrySimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 8
OPP 24
0
0.6%
Jason Stewart pass incomplete to Darrell Henderson, broken up by Jordon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Jamil CollinsSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+14
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 14 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
50
+14
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 14 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Jahmahl Pardner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
0.2%
Jason Stewart run for 23 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Deandre Jordan run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
0.2%
Jason Stewart run for no gain to the Memph 48 Jason Stewart fumbled, recovered by Memph Deandre Jordan , return for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-3
0.2%
Deandre Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q1 3:33
Michael Armstrong kickoff for 64 yds , Darrell Henderson return for 99 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 9:08
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com