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ECU

East Carolina 24 at Tulsa 45

TLSA
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:47 · Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 187Home team on offense+27.5Pregame prior+6.2Score differential+20.7Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:43: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 14 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 3 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:49: James Summers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +7.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:04: James Flanders run for 7 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:01: Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 64 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 11:51ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:04ECU 4th & 20 at ECU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:56TLSA 4th & 24 at TLSA 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:07ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:10TLSA 4th & 20 at ECU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:01ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:09TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:14ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:02ECU 4th & 6 at TLSA 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:53ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:04TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:50ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 13 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:47ECU 4th & 3 at TLSA 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:47ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.8%−3.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:05TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:56ECU 4th & 16 at TLSA 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:03ECU 4th & 7 at TLSA 34, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:57TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:43TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:41ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:49ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:04TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:01TLSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:38TLSA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:27ECU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:0376% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
75.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 2 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
75.8%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
75.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
75.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+7
75.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 7 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+13
75.8%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to ATKINSON, J., PENALTY ECU pass interference (GORE, Colby) 13 yards to the ECU30, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
75.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
75.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+22
76.2%
James Flanders run for 22 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
75.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
75.9%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.9%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
75.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 3 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+5
76.0%
Philip Nelson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:0676% → 80%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
76.2%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
76.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+13
76.2%
James Flanders run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
76.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
76.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+12
76.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 12 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
76.6%
BREWER, D. rush for loss of 2 yards to the ECU43 (WHITE, Cam), PENALTY ECU substitution infraction 5 yards to the ECU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+10
76.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
76.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 5 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+7
76.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 7 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
79.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 14 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:5522% → 24%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
78.5%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
78.4%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+14
78.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 14 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
78.3%
Philip Nelson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 39 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding (Philip Nelson) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+10
78.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 10 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+51
76.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 51 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
76.4%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
76.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
76.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
76.4%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
76.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
75.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
75.6%
James Summers run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
50
+4
75.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
75.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-15
75.5%
Philip Nelson sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 15 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 20
OWN 40
+7
76.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 57 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3876% → 76%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
76.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
76.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+14
75.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 55 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 14 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
75.8%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
75.1%
Philip Nelson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.3%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-13
75.0%
Philip Nelson sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 34 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding (Philip Nelson) to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 21
OWN 34
+7
76.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+52
76.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds, downed at the TULSA 14 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (7 Yards) to the Tulsa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
76.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
76.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh Atkinson, broken up by Bobby FulpSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+16
76.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 16 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
76.7%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
76.8%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-8
75.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Dayon Pratt and Kiante Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
75.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
50
-5
74.6%
Philip Nelson sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
76.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+2
76.3%
Philip Nelson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 13
OWN 47
+7
76.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 38 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 2:3477% → 80%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
76.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+22
77.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
50
+10
78.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 10 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
78.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
78.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
78.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
79.2%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K., PENALTY ECU pass interference (SIMMONS, Travon) 15 yards to the ECU14, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
79.2%
FLANDERS, J. rush for 1 yard to the ECU13 (WILLIAMS, Jrdn;AMOS, DaShaun), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the ECU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
79.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Travon SimmonsSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
79.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 20
OPP 24
0
79.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 20
OPP 24
+41
79.5%
Redford Jones 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
81.2%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
81.3%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
81.7%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
81.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 34 yds, downed at the ECaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
81.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 14
OWN 48
0
80.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
79.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
81.6%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
81.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
82.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
82.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 65 yds, downed at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 3:0281% → 90%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
81.2%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
81.2%
James Flanders run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
81.4%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
82.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
82.3%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
82.2%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
81.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
82.4%
James Flanders run for 17 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by DaShaun AmosSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
82.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 10 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
82.9%
James Flanders run for 10 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
82.9%
James Flanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
83.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the ECaro 6Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
83.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (3 Yards) to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 3 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0713% → 9%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
87.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 18 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
91.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:0312% → 22%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
88.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
88.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
87.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 20 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
86.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
86.1%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
85.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+13
86.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
85.9%
Deondre Farrier run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.4%
James Summers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:3982% → 92%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
82.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
82.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
83.1%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
82.3%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+40
83.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.0%
James Flanders run for 7 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:0210% → 13%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.0%
Gardner Minshew run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
89.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
89.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for 9 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+13
89.1%
James Summers run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
88.8%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+6
87.9%
Devin Anderson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.9%
Gardner Minshew run for no gain to the Tulsa 26 Gardner Minshew fumbled, recovered by ECaro Devin AndersonSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
88.3%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Craig Suits for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+5
89.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for 5 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
86.9%
Davis Plowman 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:5590% → 97%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
89.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+7
90.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 22 yds to the TULSA 49 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (D'Angelo Brewer) to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
96.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 64 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
96.0%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Terrell Green, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 41 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for no gain to the Tulsa 29 Jarion Anderson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Cristian WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+21
96.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 21 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
96.9%
Dane Evans sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TULSA 45 TULSA Penalty, intentional grounding (Dane Evans) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
96.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 18
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to D'Angelo BrewerSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
96.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.9%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
96.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
96.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
96.8%
MINSHEW, Grdnr pass incomplete to JONES, Zay, PENALTY ECU personal foul 15 yards to the ECU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+5
97.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+12
97.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 12 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+52
97.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the TULSA 20 TULSA Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 1:2398% → 98%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
98.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+11
98.0%
James Flanders run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+11
98.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.1%
James Flanders run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
98.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
98.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-3
98.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
50
0
98.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
50
0
98.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 70 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 15 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+57
98.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 43 yds to the TULSA 27 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, roughing passer (14 Yards) to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
98.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
98.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Devin Anderson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+5
98.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Devin Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 13:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.3%
James Summers run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-14
98.3%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 14 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
98.7%
James Flanders run for 25 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
98.8%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+2
98.8%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
99.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 4Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+15
99.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 15 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
99.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 16 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to James SummersSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 14 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
98.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Devin Anderson, broken up by Trent MartinSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
98.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 13 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Devin AndersonSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
98.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
98.8%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 11 yards to the Tulsa 31 Gardner Minshew fumbled, recovered by ECaro Messiah Rice , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 16
OPP 31
0
99.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:5999% → 100%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+42
99.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 42 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
99.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 5 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, recovered by Tulsa D'Angelo Brewer for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (8 Yards) to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 1:000% → 1%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Manny BunchSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 17 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-15
100.0%
MINSHEW, Grdnr pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Devin, PENALTY ECU pass interference (ANDERSON, Devin) 15 yards to the TLS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+14
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Terrell Green for 14 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+12
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Terrell Green for 12 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
100.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:04
James Flanders run for 7 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q3 12:49
James Summers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q3 6:01
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 64 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com