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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:11 · Alex Starzyk punt for 38 yds, downed at the UConn 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:20: Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +5.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:17: Donovan Williams pass incomplete — CONN win probability +2.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43: Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 8 yds to the Temp 33 — TEM win probability +5.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:55: Ryquell Armstead run for 22 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST down — TEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:39: Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST down — CONN win probability +2.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:31CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 32, tiedClose callPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:55CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snapGo for it28.2%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q1 3:24CONN 4th & 7 at TEM 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call26.0%79% to makePunt23.4%−2.6average punt
- Q2 13:26CONN 4th & 22 at CONN 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it16.8%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q2 11:32TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 43, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.1%−0.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%average punt
- Q2 10:29CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it15.9%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%average punt
- Q2 0:43CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 32, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.0%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%average punt
- Q3 10:39TEM 4th & 9 at CONN 44, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.332% to convertField goal92.4%−0.827% to makePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q3 7:10CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it6.9%−1.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q3 5:11TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 25, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.5%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q3 3:04CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 44, down 21Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:14CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q4 0:34CONN 4th & 27 at CONN 45, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:11TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two71.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:39TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.3%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:20TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.0%97% to makeGo for two79.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2926% → 26%
TEMDrive 2TD5 plays · 74 yds · 2:2074% → 74%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
26.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 20 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+32
27.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 32 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
25.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1626% → 26%
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
26.3%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Brian Lemelle for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4TD3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1674% → 76%
CONNDrive 5MISSED FG9 plays · 57 yds · 4:1525% → 24%
TEMDrive 6TD6 plays · 77 yds · 3:0477% → 84%
Q1 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
16.4%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5418% → 17%
TEMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5485% → 85%
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-11
15.2%
Phillip Walker sacked by Vontae Diggs for a loss of 11 yards to the Temp 36 Phillip Walker fumbled, forced by Vontae Diggs, recovered by Temp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0317% → 16%
TEMDrive 10INT11 plays · 54 yds · 5:2686% → 87%
Q2 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
12.4%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 15 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
13.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 8 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
13.0%
Phillip Walker pass intercepted Obi Melifonwu return for no gain to the UConn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT15 plays · 31 yds · 4:2014% → 16%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
13.8%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Averee Robinson) to the UConn 6Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+4
12.3%
Donovan Williams run for 4 yds to the UConn 24 Donovan Williams fumbled, forced by Michael Dogbe, recovered by UConn Donovan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+5
13.1%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Alec Bloom for 5 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
15.9%
Justin Wain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 11 yds · 0:4389% → 90%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
10.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 8 yds to the Temp 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 4:1690% → 93%
CONNDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2910% → 7%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
10.1%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
9.8%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 11 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
9.3%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 10 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-6
7.8%
Donovan Williams sacked by Praise Martin-Oguike for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 33Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
6.9%
Justin Wain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5995% → 96%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
5.2%
Phillip Walker sacked by Sean Marinan for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:075% → 5%
Q3 3:04
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
4.5%
Justin Wain punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17INT14 plays · 87 yds · 8:0897% → 99%
Q4 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+22
2.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 22 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
1.8%
Thomas, Jahad rush for 4 yards to the UCONN29, PENALTY TEMPLE holding (Fofi, David) 10 yards to the UCONN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
1.4%
Phillip Walker pass intercepted, touchback. Obi Melifonwu return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:422% → 2%
TEMDrive 19FUMBLE7 plays · 30 yds · 3:5199% → 99%
CONNDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 39 yds · 3:491% → 1%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Tommy Myers for 8 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
1.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 10 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
1.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 4 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+10
1.1%
Donovan Williams run for 10 yds to the Temp 38 Donovan Williams fumbled, forced by Avery Ellis, recovered by UConn Donovan Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
1.0%
Williams, Donovan pass incomplete, PENALTY UCONN holding (Vechery, Brendan) 10 yards to the TEMPLE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-1
0.8%
Donovan Williams sacked by Sean Chandler for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 49Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 21
OPP 49
-6
0.8%
Donovan Williams sacked by Avery Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:20
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-5.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 8 yds to the Temp 33
-5.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:39
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST down
+2.8