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TLSA

Tulsa 59 at Memphis 30

MEM
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:16 · Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 4 yds to the Memph 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense−5.1Pregame prior+12.4Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:32: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 25 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:03: James Flanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:31: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:12: Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +8.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:06: James Flanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:36MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02MEM 4th & 18 at MEM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:45MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:16TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:31MEM 4th & 10 at TLSA 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:56TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MEM 4th & 2 at TLSA 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−2.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:12TLSA 4th & 5 at MEM 16, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−12.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:06MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:21TLSA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:50MEM 4th & 27 at MEM 8, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:06MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.4%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:40TLSA 4th & 13 at MEM 39, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:42TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:29TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:57MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:32TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:23MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:03TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:01MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:31TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:27MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:06TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:49TLSA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:11TLSA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:1832% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Chris MorleySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
68.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+13
68.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
68.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.1%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
68.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
68.1%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to LUCAS, K., PENALTY MEM unsportsmanlike conduct (RUPERT, Shaun) 15 yards to the MEM32, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
68.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
68.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+14
68.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 14 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
68.1%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
66.2%
James Flanders run for 14 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
66.5%
Riley Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-3
66.5%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Trent Martin for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
66.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0334% → 37%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
65.9%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+12
65.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
63.3%
James Flanders run for 52 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:3264% → 66%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
63.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
63.9%
Tony Pollard run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+24
63.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 24 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
64.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+29
64.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 29 yds Anthony Miller fumbled, forced by Reggie Robinson II, recovered by Memph Anthony Miller for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.5%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
64.3%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
64.4%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.2%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
64.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
64.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
64.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
63.7%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 20Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 18
OWN 20
-5
63.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Christopher Roberson) to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 23
OWN 15
0
63.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 23
OWN 15
+5
63.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 5 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
63.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
62.2%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
62.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 14 yds Keenen Johnson fumbled, forced by Chris Morley, recovered by Memph Chauncey LanierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
63.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
63.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
62.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel HurdSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+29
62.4%
Nick Jacobs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the MEMPHIS 8 MEMPHIS Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:0639% → 51%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
61.5%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
61.2%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
59.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
59.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+4
59.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
59.0%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
58.0%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to ATKINSON, J. (MAULET, Arthur), PENALTY MEM pass interference (MAULET, Arthur) 15 yards to the MEM38, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
57.7%
Raymond Taylor run for 8 yds to the Memph 30 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 12
OPP 40
+10
57.7%
Raymond Taylor run for 10 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
57.4%
Raymond Taylor run for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
57.7%
Raymond Taylor run for 3 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
57.4%
Raymond Taylor run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
49.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 25 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:0051% → 57%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
50.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
52.1%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
51.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+59
56.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
57.1%
James Flanders run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
55.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
55.3%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
55.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Chauncey LanierSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+4
56.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
55.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 15 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
56.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
56.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+25
55.1%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Trent Martin return for 25 yds to the Memph 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2748% → 56%
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.2%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.6%
James Flanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:5645% → 55%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
44.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 20 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
46.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+38
45.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 38 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
47.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
47.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
55.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3049% → 63%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.5%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
52.1%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+20
52.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 20 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
49.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
49.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 18 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
49.0%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
48.8%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+13
49.2%
Raymond Taylor run for 13 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
48.8%
Raymond Taylor run for 2 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
48.8%
Raymond Taylor run for 3 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:0039% → 43%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
38.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Drew Kyser) to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
38.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+47
37.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 47 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
41.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
41.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
40.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
43.1%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3557% → 57%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.4%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
43.1%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
41.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+7
42.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 50 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 7 yds to the Memph 39 MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Chauncey Lanier) to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
41.6%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to DYKES, Sean, PENALTY MEM holding (TATE, Trevon) 6 yards to the MEM7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+2
40.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3342% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
42.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
41.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 18 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
44.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
43.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+4
43.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+43
42.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 43 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
45.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
45.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.3%
Anthony Miller 3 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:1552% → 63%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.4%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
47.0%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
47.6%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
47.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
45.9%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
45.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
45.5%
FLANDERS, J. rush for 4 yards to the MEM35 (AKINS, Curtis), PENALTY TLS holding (PLAGG, E.) 10 yards to the MEM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+28
46.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 28 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
44.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
44.4%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
45.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
36.6%
Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
39.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
38.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
37.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
36.5%
Nick Jacobs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
35.9%
James Flanders run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.0%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
34.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh Atkinson, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
35.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 3
50
0
35.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
34.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 6 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
34.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-17
32.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete MEMPHIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Riley Ferguson) to the Memph 8Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
31.5%
Nick Jacobs punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
15.8%
James Flanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25FUMBLE
15 plays · 29 yds · 3:0620% → 20%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Daniel Montiel) to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
19.9%
DORCEUS, D. rush for 8 yards to the MEM28 (MARTIN, T.), PENALTY MEM personal foul (WOODARD, Dustin) 10 yards to the MEM10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+13
19.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
19.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
19.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kerwin Thomas) to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
21.1%
TAYLOR, Patrick rush for 5 yards to the MEM41 (SUITS, C.), PENALTY MEM illegal formation 5 yards to the MEM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-5
20.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Drew Kyser) to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-2
20.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 22
OWN 24
-6
19.8%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 28
OWN 18
+25
19.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 25 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+8
21.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
20.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+44
20.3%
Riley Ferguson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 10 Riley Ferguson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Petera Wilson Jr. , return for 44 yds to the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3489% → 97%
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
10.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
3.0%
James Flanders run for 7 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27FUMBLE
9 plays · 65 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
3.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-3
3.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
3.7%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to MILLER, Anthony, PENALTY TLS pass interference (ROBINSON, R.) 15 yards to the MEM41, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
4.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
4.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
4.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+31
4.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 31 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
4.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 11 Doroland Dorceus fumbled, forced by Hayden Carman, recovered by Tulsa Matt LinscottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 6:1398% → 100%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
2.5%
James Flanders run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
2.5%
Raymond Taylor run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
2.5%
Raymond Taylor run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+7
2.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 7 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
2.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
2.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
2.4%
Raymond Taylor run for 7 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
2.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
2.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 9 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
2.2%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
0.2%
Raymond Taylor run for 31 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.2%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Craig Suits return for 4 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
0.2%
Rowdy Simon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+4
0.2%
Rowdy Simon run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Rowdy Simon run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-5
0.2%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Raymond Taylor) to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
0.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31END OF GAME
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
0.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
0.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
0.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
0.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
0.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
0.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
0.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
0.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:06
James Flanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q2 2:31
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-12
FG · Q3 7:12
Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOOD
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com