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CIN

Cincinnati 13 at Temple 34

TEM
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:28 · Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+13.1Home team on offense+2.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:06: Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +5.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:21: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +7.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:23: Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — TEM win probability +7.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:30: Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +6.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:26: Ryquell Armstead run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31TEM 4th & 5 at CIN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:31CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:19TEM 4th & 12 at CIN 35, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:28CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:44TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TEM 4th & 26 at TEM 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:20CIN 4th & 5 at TEM 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:23TEM 4th & 9 at CIN 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−9.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:15CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:43CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:29TEM 4th & 3 at midfield, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:40CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:47TEM 4th & 3 at CIN 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:45TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:06TEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:21CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:30TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:26TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
73.9%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+5
73.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Sam Geraci punt, downed at the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1274% → 74%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
73.8%
Isaiah Wright run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
73.8%
Ryquell Armstead run for 6 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
73.8%
Ryquell Armstead run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+11
73.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 11 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
73.8%
Isaiah Wright run for 4 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
73.8%
Isaiah Wright run for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
73.7%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Jahad Thomas, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
73.5%
Aaron Boumerhi 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.3%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Averee Robinson) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
73.2%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
73.2%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
73.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Tion GreenSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
73.5%
Ryquell Armstead run for 6 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
73.7%
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 1
50
+3
73.6%
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.7%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Colin ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
73.6%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Jahad ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
73.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
73.8%
Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
73.8%
Phillip Walker run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-15
73.7%
TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Ventell Bryant) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+8
73.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 8 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
73.1%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Keith Kirkwood, broken up by Eric WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike TysonSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
72.7%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
72.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 5
50
+5
72.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 5 yds to the Temp 45 Gunner Kiel fumbled, forced by Avery Williams, recovered by Temp Delvon RandallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5873% → 76%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
73.1%
Phillip Walker run for 2 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
73.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for 2 yds to the Temp 49Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
72.8%
WALKER,Phillip pass incomplete to BRYANT,Ventell, PENALTY CIN holding (COLEMAN, Grant) 10 yards to the CIN41, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
73.4%
Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+40
76.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 40 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:4126% → 30%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
74.2%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Temp 28Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
74.1%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
74.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 6 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
74.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 16 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:4172% → 79%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
72.0%
Jahad Thomas run for no gain to the Temp 18Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+56
71.9%
Jahad Thomas run for 56 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
73.5%
Ryquell Armstead run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+28
78.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:3523% → 32%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
77.0%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
76.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 7 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
76.4%
BOONE, Mike rush for 2 yards to the CIN40 (WILLIAMS,Avery), PENALTY TEM offside (ROBINSON,Averee) 5 yards to the CIN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+12
76.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 12 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
75.8%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
75.6%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Temp 37Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
75.7%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
75.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 11 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
75.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 16 yds to the Temp 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
75.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Idarius Ray) to the Temp 12Similar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
75.3%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Temp 10Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
68.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 69 yds · 0:0071% → 74%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.4%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 9 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.3%
Isaiah Wright run for 2 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
71.9%
Jahad Thomas run for 2 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
72.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 37Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+24
71.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 24 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
73.1%
Jahad Thomas run for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+20
73.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 20 yds Keith Kirkwood fumbled, forced by Tyrell Gilbert, recovered by Cincy Tyrell GilbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:1529% → 27%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
71.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
71.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 3 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+19
72.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 19 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
70.6%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-2
70.3%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+9
73.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.5%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
70.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
70.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Sam GeraciSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
72.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3472% → 71%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
72.3%
Jahad Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 18Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
72.0%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Keith KirkwoodSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 11
OWN 18
-3
71.2%
Phillip Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+9
70.7%
Alex Starzyk punt for 49 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 9 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
73.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Isaiah Wright run for no gain to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Ventell BryantSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-16
70.2%
Phillip Walker sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 16 yards to the Temp 9Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+15
69.2%
Alex Starzyk punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 45 , Devin Gray returns for 15 yds to the Temp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
67.3%
KIEL, Gunner pass complete to BOONE, Mike for 5 yards to the TEM40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CIN holding (LEWIS, Kahlil) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 15
50
+10
69.0%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
67.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
67.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
69.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, downed at the Temp 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 7:5571% → 81%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
70.6%
Ryquell Armstead run for 4 yds to the Temp 8Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+9
70.4%
Ryquell Armstead run for 9 yds to the Temp 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
70.9%
WALKER,Phillip pass incomplete to KIRKWOOD,Keith, PENALTY CIN pass interference (EDWARDS, Zach) 15 yards to the TEM32, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
71.3%
Ryquell Armstead run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 31Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+2
70.8%
Ryquell Armstead run for 2 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+9
69.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 9 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
72.7%
Phillip Walker sacked by Caleb Ashworth for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+25
70.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 25 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
73.6%
Phillip Walker run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
74.2%
Jahad Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
74.2%
Jahad Thomas run for 12 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
74.2%
Phillip Walker run for 13 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 5
OWN 0
0
71.0%
Isaiah Wright run for no gain to the Cincy 5 CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Cincy 5Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
74.2%
Isaiah Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.2%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
80.6%
Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.3%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
76.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:3381% → 94%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
80.9%
Jahad Thomas run for 35 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
83.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
83.3%
Jahad Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+8
82.3%
Ryquell Armstead run for 8 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
83.3%
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+8
83.3%
Jahad Thomas run for 8 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
87.1%
Jahad Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 2:0194% → 99%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
94.1%
Jahad Thomas run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
94.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+10
93.9%
Phillip Walker run for 10 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Ryquell Armstead run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:372% → 2%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.5%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.1%
Jahad Thomas run for 9 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+7
99.1%
Jahad Thomas run for 7 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for 7 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
Nick Sharga run for 4 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.2%
Jahad Thomas run for 5 yds to the Temp 48Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
99.2%
Ryquell Armstead run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 3
50
0
99.1%
Phillip Walker run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 3
50
0
99.1%
Alex Starzyk punt for 39 yds, downed at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.2%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.2%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-8
99.2%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Praise Martin-Oguike for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 16
OWN 5
0
99.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.6%
Jager Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
99.5%
Jager Gardner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
99.5%
David Hood run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+14
99.5%
David Hood run for 14 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.8%
Jager Gardner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
99.8%
Jager Gardner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
99.8%
David Hood run for 8 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.8%
David Hood run for 6 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 4:23
Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+7.4
TD · Q2 8:21
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q4 14:30
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com