Try the model
UCF

UCF 24 at Houston 31

HOU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:23 · Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the UCF 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+11.7Home team on offense−15.0Score differential−9.1Garbage-time factor−5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:14: Jawon Hamilton run for 28 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +21.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:49: Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:40: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Romello Brooker for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +20.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:55: Duke Catalon run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +25.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:27: Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +22.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:41HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:17UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:57UCF 4th & 4 at HOU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:42HOU 4th & 1 at UCF 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−1.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−6.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20HOU 4th & 11 at UCF 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:42HOU 4th & 29 at UCF 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:05UCF 4th & 20 at HOU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−4.0
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−9.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:23HOU 4th & 2 at UCF 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:21UCF 4th & 21 at UCF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−5.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:40HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−3.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:12HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−4.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:17UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:27UCF 4th & 1 at HOU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−5.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:26UCF 4th & 9 at HOU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:16UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:06UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:14UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:49HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:40HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:55HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:27HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1821% → 21%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
79.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
79.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
79.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marquez Stevenson at the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0079% → 79%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
79.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+1
78.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 1 yd to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+20
78.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 20 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted D.J. Killings return for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:3422% → 24%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Adrian Killins run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
78.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+16
78.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 16 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
77.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 17 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
77.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
77.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
76.1%
Adrian Killins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2076% → 76%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
76.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-15
76.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Chance Allen) to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
75.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+13
75.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+3
75.6%
Dane Roy punt for 48 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5825% → 25%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
75.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
75.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 16
-5
75.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
75.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
75.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:2575% → 75%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
75.4%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-1
75.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+13
74.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
75.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Shaquem Griffin return for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:2927% → 29%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
73.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
72.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+8
72.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+2
71.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
71.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 7:2572% → 71%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.8%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
71.5%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
71.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
71.2%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+9
70.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 9 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
71.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+6
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
70.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 7 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+20
70.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 20 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
71.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
70.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for no gain to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
69.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
70.6%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 19 Duke Catalon fumbled, forced by Mark Rucker, recovered by Houst Duke CatalonSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+2
69.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 2 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 14
OPP 17
+3
67.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
71.1%
Ty Cummings 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4629% → 29%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
70.7%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+3
70.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
70.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
71.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -19 yds · 1:2772% → 68%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
72.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
71.8%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 17
OPP 32
-12
69.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Shaquem Griffin and Mark Rucker for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 29
OPP 44
0
67.6%
Dane Roy punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:2832% → 47%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
67.9%
Adrian Killins run for no gain to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+13
67.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
66.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+25
67.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 25 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
64.9%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Snelson, Dredrick, PENALTY HOUSTON roughing passer 15 yards to the HOUSTON29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
64.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+2
64.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+13
65.7%
Wright, Matthew field goal attempt from 43 MISSED - wide right, spot at HOUSTON26, clock 04:15, PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul (Oliver, Ed) 13 yards to the HOUSTON13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
63.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+13
61.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1454% → 55%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
54.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 4 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
53.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+14
53.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 14 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
54.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted D.J. Killings return for 22 yds to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:2049% → 70%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
51.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+19
51.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Ed Oliver) to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
30.5%
Jawon Hamilton run for 28 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0239% → 36%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
39.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shaquill Griffin) to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-1
40.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
37.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
36.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:1935% → 34%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
34.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 13 yards to the Houst 13 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Tony Guerad, recovered by UCF Shaquem GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FG
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5072% → 75%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
28.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 14Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
29.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian KillinsSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 14
-9
28.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Cameron Malveaux for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 20
OPP 23
+41
25.1%
Matthew Wright 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0428% → 39%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.6%
Duke Catalon run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
27.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.6%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
26.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
26.5%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+46
25.7%
Dillon Birden run for 46 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
29.3%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.1%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5069% → 71%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
30.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
29.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-1
29.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 39 Jawon Hamilton fumbled, forced by Nick Thurman, recovered by Houst Steven TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:5435% → 34%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
35.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 15 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
35.9%
D'Eriq King sacked by D.J. Killings for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 31 HOUSTON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (D'Eriq King) to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+13
34.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+2
34.5%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+1
33.6%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2335% → 54%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
34.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+21
33.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 21 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
33.1%
Dillon Birden run for 4 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Romello Brooker for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5559% → 58%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
40.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+10
39.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 10 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
38.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-13
38.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the UCF 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF McKenzie MiltonSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 21
OWN 44
-2
42.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 52 yds , Marquez Stevenson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2243% → 40%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
43.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
42.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
41.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
40.2%
Dane Roy punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23INT
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:1865% → 64%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
35.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 39 Jawon Hamilton fumbled, recovered by UCF Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+26
36.1%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for 26 yds to the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2944% → 36%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
44.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-6
46.2%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Denley) to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-2
41.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Dillon Birden for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
36.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5764% → 69%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
35.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 13 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
30.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
30.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cal BloomSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-19
30.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Brandon Wilson for a loss of 19 yards to the UCF 24 McKenzie Milton fumbled, forced by Brandon Wilson, recovered by Houst Garrett Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:4144% → 69%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
44.0%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+11
43.7%
Duke Catalon run for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
69.2%
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0042% → 39%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-11
58.0%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Steven Taylor and Nick Thurman for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 21
OWN 16
0
59.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 21
OWN 16
+12
60.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+6
61.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 52 yds for a 1ST down , Collin Wilder returns for 6 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Rashard Causey) to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3865% → 90%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
65.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
66.7%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+18
65.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 18 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
68.1%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+10
64.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 10 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
65.9%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
67.7%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
67.6%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
89.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:5014% → 13%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
85.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+7
81.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-1
81.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
82.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
84.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
82.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
82.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-4
83.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
86.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF GAME
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1494% → 97%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.8%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
94.2%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+20
95.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 20 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
95.9%
Duke Catalon run for 15 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
97.0%
Duke Catalon run for 19 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.0%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.2%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.0%
Dillon Birden run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:55
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+25.4
TD · Q4 7:27
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+22
TD · Q2 1:14
Jawon Hamilton run for 28 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com