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NAVY

Navy 45 at South Florida 52

USF
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-2.4USF 96.4%Toneo Gulley 3 Yd Run (Two-Point RunConversion Failed)AWAY 27 - HOME 45 · Q4 10:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:34 · Toneo Gulley 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+24.0Pregame prior+5.8Score differential+10.1Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.2Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:10: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 41 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +4.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Will Worth run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:43: Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:34: Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 9 yds for a TD — NAVY win probability +8.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:17NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:56NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:45NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:27NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:03USF 4th & 11 at NAVY 11, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:30USF 4th & 5 at NAVY 44, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:34NAVY 4th & 2 at USF 3, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:40USF 4th & 6 at NAVY 31, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:51USF 4th & 15 at NAVY 43, up 13
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:49USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:25USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:43USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:10USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:56NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:43USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:34NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:52USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:13NAVY Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:34NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:22USF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:14NAVY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:28NAVY Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0981% → 81%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.5%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
80.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 10 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
80.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 63 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:1320% → 20%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
80.5%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+10
80.4%
Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
80.3%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
80.2%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
80.1%
Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-2
80.2%
Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4181% → 83%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
80.8%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
80.8%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
80.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 7 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
80.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
80.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
80.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
82.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1218% → 18%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.1%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
82.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
82.0%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
82.3%
Alex Barta punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
85.7%
Marlon Mack run for 85 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5014% → 13%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.8%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.7%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
85.8%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+31
86.8%
Alex Barta punt for 51 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 31 yds to the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:2387% → 91%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
86.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+41
91.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 41 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:018% → 12%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
91.6%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+42
91.6%
Will Worth pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 42 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
91.6%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Andrew Wood) to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+7
92.3%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+13
92.0%
Shawn White run for 13 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
93.2%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.7%
Will Worth run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 3:5988% → 95%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
88.4%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+10
89.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
50
+19
89.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 19 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
90.2%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+4
90.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
90.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
91.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+13
91.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 13 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
91.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:015% → 9%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
95.5%
Will Worth run for 17 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
95.5%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
95.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+6
95.7%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
96.7%
Shawn White run for 12 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
96.7%
Chris High run for 15 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
96.6%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.9%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3494% → 98%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
93.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
93.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
94.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
94.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 1 yd to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-9
94.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the SOUFLA 46 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jeremi Hall) to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+9
94.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+14
94.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 14 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
95.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 9 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+9
95.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
95.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 16 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Craig ScottSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
98.2%
Toneo Gulley run for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Will Worth pass intercepted Ronnie Hoggins return for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FUMBLE
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.7%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
98.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
98.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
98.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+11
98.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 11 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
98.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 23 yds Mitchell Wilcox fumbled, forced by Josiah Powell, recovered by Navy Sean WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.4%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:238% → 1%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.9%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
98.6%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Alex Barta punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16FG
20 plays · 74 yds · 5:1499% → 100%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.9%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-5
98.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jeremi Hall) to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
99.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
98.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 2 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marlon Mack) to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+9
99.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 9 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+26
99.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 26 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
99.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 18 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
99.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+5
99.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+17
99.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
99.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Elkanah Dillon) to the Navy 12Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
99.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+27
99.5%
Emilio Nadelman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:311% → 3%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+29
99.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 29 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.3%
Toneo Gulley run for 7 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
99.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.1%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+11
99.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 11 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
99.1%
Will Worth run for 10 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
98.6%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
98.6%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
98.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds, downed at the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
17 plays · 99 yds · 6:502% → 4%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
97.7%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+9
98.0%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
98.0%
Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.0%
Will Worth run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.1%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
98.2%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+14
98.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Shawn White for 14 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
98.4%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 9 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+4
98.3%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.3%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+22
98.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 22 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
98.3%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
98.4%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
98.5%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
96.4%
Toneo Gulley 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:5898% → 100%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
97.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 26 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:550% → 4%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+7
99.6%
Shawn White run for 7 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.6%
Dishan Romine run for 12 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+43
99.6%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 43 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.4%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:3199% → 99%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Norman) to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+13
98.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 13 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
98.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
98.9%
Brett Kean run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
98.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-2
99.1%
Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
99.1%
Brandon Behr 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM Sean Williams return for 17 yds to the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:062% → 4%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
98.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 8 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+42
98.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 42 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.8%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Darryl BonnerSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
97.8%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
98.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.9%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Will Worth 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
98.5%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
98.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-1
98.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+1
98.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 15
OPP 43
+6
98.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 85 yds · 0:441% → 11%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
98.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 12 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
98.6%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 18 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
98.6%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 9 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+37
98.4%
Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 37 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.0%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 9 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.8
TD · Q4 0:00
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 9 yds for a TD
-8.8
TD · Q2 6:34
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com