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MEM

Memphis 28 at Navy 42

NAVY
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.7NAVY 99.1%Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD,(Bennett Moehring KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 42 · Q4 2:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:01 · Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense+31.4Pregame prior−0.3Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.4Score differential+12.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:19: Will Worth run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:14: Will Worth run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:42: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +13.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 18 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:21: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +18.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:26NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00MEM 4th & 18 at MEM 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:25MEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−5.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:16NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:30MEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:00NAVY 4th & 4 at MEM 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−9.9
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:29NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 25, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:40NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 15, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−2.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:40MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:01MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:26MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:30NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:17MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:42NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:19NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:14NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:42MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:21MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:01NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3460% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
40.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
40.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
40.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
40.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
40.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Dustin Woodard) to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-3
40.3%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+16
40.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
39.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:5640% → 44%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
40.2%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
40.4%
Toneo Gulley run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
40.4%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
40.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
40.4%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
40.5%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
40.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+14
40.5%
Dishan Romine run for 14 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
40.6%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+10
40.6%
Chris High run for 10 yds to the Memph 4 Chris High fumbled, forced by Chris Morley, recovered by Navy Tyler Carmona for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.1%
Shawn White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:3540% → 46%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
40.0%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+4
39.9%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+15
39.8%
WORTH, Will pass incomplete to BONNER, Darryl, PENALTY MEM-ROAD pass interference (MORLEY, Chris) 15 yards to the MEM-ROAD43, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
40.7%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+1
41.1%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
41.1%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
41.1%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
40.7%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
41.1%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+3
41.1%
Tre Walker run for 3 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
46.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 15 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4256% → 55%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.9%
Tony Pollard run for 10 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
43.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
42.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-14
43.0%
Riley Ferguson sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 14 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
45.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for no gain to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:0046% → 48%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.9%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Tyler Carmona, broken up by Jonathan CookSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
45.7%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+36
44.9%
Dishan Romine run for 36 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
47.9%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+28
47.9%
Will Worth run for 28 yds Will Worth fumbled, forced by Chauncey Lanier, recovered by MemphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 77 yds · 2:1255% → 55%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
44.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 16 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
44.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+10
43.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 10 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
43.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
42.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
42.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 8 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
42.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 18 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Elijah MerchantSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
42.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.6%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
44.8%
Riley Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
48.2%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+1
48.4%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
48.4%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Andrew Wood) to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 15
OWN 8
-5
48.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 20
OWN 3
+2
48.1%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+1
47.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
46.7%
Alex Barta punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2358% → 54%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
42.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Elijah MerchantSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
42.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
43.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Alohi GilmanSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
46.0%
Jake Elliott 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1150% → 64%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
50.0%
Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
51.3%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
52.2%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
51.4%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+11
52.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
52.4%
Will Worth run for 18 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
53.3%
Will Worth run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+22
51.7%
Will Worth run for 22 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4439% → 37%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
60.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
61.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+8
60.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
62.8%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Tyler Sayles for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-9
63.5%
Riley Ferguson sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4662% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.1%
Dishan Romine run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
63.3%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
63.4%
Darryl Bonner run for 8 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+12
64.4%
Will Worth run for 12 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
64.5%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
64.5%
Shawn White run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+11
65.6%
Dishan Romine run for 11 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
67.0%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+15
67.0%
Josh Brown run for 15 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
67.0%
Josh Brown run for 1 yd to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.2%
Will Worth run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 3:3223% → 41%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
77.4%
Tony Pollard run for 5 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
76.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+11
76.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 11 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
75.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 7 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
74.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 9 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
73.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
74.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+17
74.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 17 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
72.4%
FERGUSON, Riley pass complete to HURD, Daniel for 7 yards to the NAVY20 (THOMAS, Micah), PENALTY NAVY substitution infraction 5 yards to the NAVY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 5
OPP 22
0
72.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
72.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+10
73.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
72.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
59.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4271% → 93%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.5%
Dishan Romine run for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
73.0%
Darryl Bonner run for 11 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
73.7%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
73.7%
Tre Walker run for 7 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
72.8%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
73.9%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
74.3%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
73.0%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
74.3%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+6
74.0%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+2
73.0%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+18
93.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 18 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 13 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
88.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
88.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
88.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
94.7%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
94.5%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+1
94.3%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Alex Barta punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:048% → 28%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
91.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+30
91.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 30 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
90.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 26 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:4183% → 92%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
83.0%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+4
83.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.0%
Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+52
82.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 52 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
86.2%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
86.2%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
85.4%
Shawn White run for 2 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
92.2%
Bennett Moehring 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
83.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Anthony Miller) to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
85.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 26 Doroland Dorceus fumbled, forced by Hudson Sullivan,Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
85.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
87.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
83.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
84.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel HurdSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
85.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds Roderick Proctor fumbled, forced by Elijah Merchant, recovered by Navy Tyler SaylesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:3896% → 99%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
95.7%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+27
95.7%
Will Worth run for 27 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
95.6%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.3%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 72 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.6%
Riley Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
98.6%
Riley Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+11
98.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-13
98.5%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Amos Mason for a loss of 13 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 23
OWN 27
+21
98.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 21 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+14
98.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 6 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
98.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+5
98.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 5 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
98.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Daiquan ThomassonSimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+20
98.2%
Riley Ferguson run for 20 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:21
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q3 0:00
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 18 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 5:42
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com