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HOU

Houston 16 at SMU 38

SMU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:56 · Dane Roy punt for 37 yds , James Proche returns for 3 yds to the SMU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−29.6Home team on offense+18.9Score differential+12.6Garbage-time factor+3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Jeremiah Gaines 31 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +4.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:58: Courtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +13.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:59: Steven Dunbar 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +13.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:13: James Proche 28 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +26.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:52: Tyler McCloskey 2 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +22.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 14:01SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34SMU 4th & 10 at HOU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:44HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:34HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:59HOU 4th & 5 at SMU 5, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−8.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:02SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07HOU 4th & 15 at SMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:56HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:24SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:55SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 26, up 14
    Numbers favored punt by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:23SMU 4th & 6 at HOU 40, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−2.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:37HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−3.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:43SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:27SMU 4th & 7 at HOU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−9.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:50HOU 4th & 2 at SMU 2, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.3%−10.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:52SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:42HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 15, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:23HOU 4th & 21 at HOU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:25SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:58SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:59HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:13SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:52HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:50SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:547% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
7.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
7.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 30 yds , D'Eriq King returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:2393% → 92%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
50
-1
7.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
7.3%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+19
7.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 19 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
7.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 15 yds Chance Allen fumbled, forced by Rodney Clemons, recovered by SMU Jarvis PruittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:538% → 11%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
7.7%
Myron Gailliard run for no gain to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
7.9%
Myron Gailliard run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+29
8.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
8.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Austin RolfeSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+38
8.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 38 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
8.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 5 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
9.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
9.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
9.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the Houst 3Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.9%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1089% → 88%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
10.8%
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
10.9%
Duke Catalon run for 11 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
11.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+3
11.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 3 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 22
OWN 20
+10
11.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+18
12.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 3 yds Linell Bonner fumbled, forced by Darrion Millines, recovered by SMU Jarvis Pruitt SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5MISSED FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:2113% → 13%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
12.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 24 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
13.0%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
13.0%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
12.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
12.6%
Josh Williams 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3587% → 86%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
13.0%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
13.2%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-8
13.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 12
OWN 22
-2
14.4%
Dane Roy punt for 47 yds , James Proche returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2814% → 21%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
14.3%
Myron Gailliard run for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-2
14.7%
Myron Gailliard run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+16
14.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 16 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
16.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
16.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
16.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
21.4%
Jeremiah Gaines 31 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5080% → 79%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
19.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
20.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
21.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
21.5%
Dane Roy punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:2824% → 40%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
23.5%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
23.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+21
23.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 21 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
25.0%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+18
26.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 18 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.6%
Courtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0763% → 59%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
36.7%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
39.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
40.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
41.0%
Dane Roy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
46.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 26 Ke'Mon Freeman fumbled, forced by Ed Oliver, recovered by Houst Emeke Egbule, return for 13 yds to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1562% → 73%
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
37.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
39.6%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.2%
Steven Dunbar 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3231% → 34%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
30.8%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
31.3%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+16
31.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 16 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
34.6%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
35.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-5
34.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
35.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
34.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 51 yds, downed at the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:4465% → 58%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
34.8%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+8
35.1%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
35.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+21
36.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 21 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
37.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 39 lat. to Marquez Stevenson for 36 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
34.9%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-7
35.8%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
40.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
42.0%
Ty Cummings 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4747% → 73%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
47.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+40
46.8%
Braeden West run for 40 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
73.0%
James Proche 28 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.1%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5233% → 29%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskeySimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
68.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+3
70.7%
Dane Roy punt for 37 yds , James Proche returns for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2875% → 77%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
75.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+3
76.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1626% → 41%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
74.3%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
75.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
75.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+6
78.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
78.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 12 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
78.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
79.0%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+15
81.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 15 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
79.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 22 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
80.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
81.5%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.7%
Tyler McCloskey 2 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:1168% → 71%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.8%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
68.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
67.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
67.0%
Jamie Sackville run for 12 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
70.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 18 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
72.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+4
71.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
71.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds, downed at the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3931% → 24%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+20
69.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 20 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
69.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 13 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
68.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+5
73.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 5 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
75.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+53
76.0%
Dane Roy punt for 43 yds , James Proche returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 20 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3981% → 83%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
80.7%
Braeden West run for 16 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
81.5%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
82.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+3
82.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
82.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:2025% → 21%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
74.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+4
79.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 4 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+3
78.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-18
79.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 18 yards to the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FG
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4188% → 92%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
87.5%
Braeden West run for 10 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
87.9%
Braeden West run for no gain to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
88.4%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
89.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
92.2%
Josh Williams 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1210% → 8%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
90.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+51
90.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 51 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
88.4%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.5%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.5%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
91.9%
Ty Cummings 19 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:3794% → 97%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
94.2%
Braeden West run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+2
94.7%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 19 Braeden West fumbled, recovered by SMU Braeden WestSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
94.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
95.3%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
95.9%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
96.9%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
97.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:564% → 3%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
96.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-6
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 15Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+6
97.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 6 yds to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4498% → 100%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
98.4%
Ben Hicks run for 11 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Braeden West 10 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:111% → 0%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-11
99.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Kyran Mitchell and Justin Lawler for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 21
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Dane Roy punt for 50 yds, downed at the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30SF
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 13
OWN 10
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 16
OWN 7
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 19
OWN 4
-4
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Dillon Birden for 6 yds to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:13
James Proche 28 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)
+26.2
TD · Q3 7:52
Tyler McCloskey 2 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
-22.8
TD · Q2 7:59
Steven Dunbar 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com