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ECU

East Carolina 19 at Cincinnati 31

CIN
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.3CIN 63.8%Davis Plowman 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 17 · Q3 4:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:39 · Davis Plowman 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score differential+0.7Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:28: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 18 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +11.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:43: Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 28 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +14.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 9:41: Josh Pasley 42 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +7.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:50: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +15.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:54: Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +16.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at CIN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09ECU 4th & 8 at CIN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:04CIN 4th & 6 at ECU 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:39ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:38CIN 4th & 6 at ECU 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:28ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:14CIN 4th & 4 at ECU 23, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:14ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:18CIN 4th & 4 at ECU 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:41CIN 4th & 3 at ECU 24, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−7.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:39ECU 4th & 6 at CIN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54ECU 4th & 3 at CIN 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:49CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:56CIN 4th & 19 at CIN 5, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−10.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:37ECU 4th & 1 at CIN 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−8.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−9.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:24CIN 4th & 17 at ECU 37, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:37CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:28CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:43ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:50CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:54ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:44CIN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 4:5143% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.1%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
57.1%
Philip Nelson run for 9 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 6 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+7
57.1%
Philip Nelson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+9
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 8 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+8
57.1%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
57.1%
Philip Nelson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
57.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
56.8%
Davis Plowman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
56.9%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
56.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
57.3%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
57.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
57.4%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
57.5%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
57.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
57.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
57.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
56.7%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-2
56.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
57.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to James SummersSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
57.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 34 yds , Brayden Beard returns for no gain to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.5%
Tion Green run for no gain to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
57.5%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
57.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
56.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 29 yds, downed at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:5943% → 43%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
56.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 17 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
56.5%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+7
57.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+4
56.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 40 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:1056% → 62%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
56.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Tion GreenSimilar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
56.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+9
56.9%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
57.4%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+23
56.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 23 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
58.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 4 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
58.2%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+10
58.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 10 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
62.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:3138% → 38%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.2%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
62.3%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+12
62.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
62.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 3 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
61.7%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
61.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony Scott, broken up by Landon BrazileSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+4
62.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 37 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:2761% → 62%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
61.0%
Tion Green run for 11 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Brayden BeardSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
61.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+27
61.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 27 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
62.8%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
62.8%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
62.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+39
62.0%
Josh Pasley 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Justin Brown Devon Sutton return for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
64.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
64.1%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+4
64.7%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
63.6%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
63.5%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the ECaro 18 Anthony Scott fumbled, forced by Tyrell Gilbert,Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+23
63.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 23 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
62.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+6
63.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+6
63.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
63.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
63.1%
Tion Green run for 18 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
63.4%
Mike Boone run for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
64.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
64.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:0034% → 37%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
65.6%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+9
64.9%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
64.9%
Philip Nelson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
64.4%
James Summers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
63.8%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
62.6%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+9
63.0%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
62.8%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted Alex Thomas return for no gain to the Cincy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:1364% → 79%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
63.9%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+12
63.7%
Mike Boone run for 12 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
64.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
64.0%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+54
63.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 54 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
67.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
79.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 18 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
77.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+10
77.6%
Philip Nelson run for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.7%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
76.2%
GREEN, Tion rush for 4 yards to the CIN38 (SIMMONS, Travon;SUTTON, Devon), PENALTY CIN holding (COGSWELL, Tyler) 10 yards to the CIN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
75.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
75.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
74.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:4925% → 42%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+39
75.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 39 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
72.2%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+28
58.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 28 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:5564% → 74%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
63.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
63.2%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
63.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
65.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 27 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
66.9%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+3
65.9%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
73.6%
Josh Pasley 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:5729% → 36%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.6%
Philip Nelson run for no gain to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
70.9%
Philip Nelson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+11
70.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
69.4%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
69.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 9 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
67.4%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+13
67.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 13 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.9%
James Summers run for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
65.9%
Philip Nelson run for 11 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
65.3%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
65.3%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
67.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Cortez BroughtonSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
63.8%
Davis Plowman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 3:3668% → 86%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
67.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+4
68.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 4 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
68.5%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to DOWDY, DJ, PENALTY ECU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Jrdn) 15 yards to the CIN35, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
69.0%
Tion Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+5
68.2%
KIEL, Gunner pass complete to GREEN, Tion for loss of 4 yards to the CIN27 (RICHARDSON, Trl), PENALTY ECU offside 5 yards to the CIN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
69.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
69.8%
KIEL, Gunner pass intercepted by SEARGENT, Corey at the ECU48, SEARGENT, Corey return to the CIN31 (GRAY, Devin), PENALTY ECU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Jrdn) 3 yards to the CIN44, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+47
70.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 47 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:4916% → 35%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
84.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-11 Yards) to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
84.2%
Anthony Scott run for 12 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
84.0%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
83.3%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+12
84.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
82.3%
James Summers run for 14 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
81.1%
Philip Nelson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
81.1%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
81.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+37
64.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
71.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
70.5%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
71.3%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
73.0%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
72.5%
Devin Gray run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
72.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
69.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:3631% → 39%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
69.2%
Philip Nelson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, targeting (Antonio Kinard) to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
67.6%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
66.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
64.5%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
64.9%
James Summers run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+10
67.9%
NELSON, Philip pass intercepted by GILBERT, Tyrell at the CIN31, GILBERT, Tyrell return to the CIN31, PENALTY CIN holding (STEPHENS, L.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
50
+8
62.3%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+15
61.7%
James Summers run for 15 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.7%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
60.9%
Anthony Scott run for 11 yds to the Cincy 14 Anthony Scott fumbled, forced by Kevin Mouhon, recovered by Cincy Eric WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
82.1%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
81.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
81.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 5
OWN 19
-10
80.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 9Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 15
OWN 9
-4
79.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Eric Wilson) to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 19
OWN 5
0
79.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
50
0
65.7%
James Summers run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
50
0
67.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Marquise CopelandSimilar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 10
50
+9
69.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 9 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
68.3%
James Summers run for no gain to the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:5287% → 98%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
86.7%
Mike Boone run for 14 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
89.2%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
91.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Will Steur) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
90.6%
Tion Green run for no gain to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+7
90.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+32
97.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 32 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+50
97.9%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted Tyrell Gilbert return for 35 yds to the CINCINNATI 36 CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Grant Coleman) to the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:0998% → 98%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
97.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 13
OPP 33
-2
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 15
OPP 35
-2
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
98.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
98.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 14 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:54
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-16.5
TD · Q3 0:50
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 12:43
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 28 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com