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UCF

UCF 24 at UConn 16

CONN
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:15 · Justin Wain punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−14.9Pregame prior−1.9Garbage-time factor−5.4Score differential−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:41: Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +10.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:50: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +11.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. FG · Q2 1:25: Bobby Puyol 35 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +8.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:01: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +14.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:27: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +15.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 12UCF made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 9:01CONN 4th & 3 at UCF 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:29CONN 4th & 11 at UCF 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:18UCF 4th & 13 at CONN 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:42UCF 4th & 7 at CONN 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:47UCF 4th & 2 at CONN 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−0.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:50CONN 4th & 1 at UCF 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−2.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:25CONN 4th & 9 at UCF 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:27CONN 4th & 19 at CONN 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−4.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:57UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:39CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 44, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:54UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:14CONN 4th & 6 at UCF 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−15.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:14UCF 4th & 2 at CONN 37, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−3.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−4.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:15UCF 4th & 11 at CONN 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:15CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:09UCF 4th & 8 at CONN 46, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:32CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 21, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−1.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:58UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:04CONN 4th & 4 at UCF 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−8.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:30UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−4.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:23CONN 4th & 10 at UCF 21, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 9:41CONN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:50UCF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:01UCF Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:27UCF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:5942% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
41.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+15
41.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 15 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
41.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+21
41.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 21 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
41.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-5
41.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+14
42.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 14 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
43.0%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+11
43.0%
Ron Johnson run for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
43.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+6
43.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
42.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel Newsome, broken up by Demeitre BrimSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
44.3%
Bobby Puyol 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
44.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 7 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
44.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cam Stewart, broken up by John GreenSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+6
44.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
44.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 10 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
44.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 9 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
43.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
43.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
44.1%
Chequan Burkett run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0346% → 49%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
45.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for 12 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
46.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+11
46.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 11 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
46.1%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
46.0%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
45.6%
Ron Johnson pass incomplete to Brian Lemelle, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
48.7%
Bobby Puyol 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:1153% → 51%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
47.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
46.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
46.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
46.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 40 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
45.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UConn 11Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
45.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 7 yds to the UConn 4Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-5
46.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (Aaron Evans) to the UConn 9Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-5
46.4%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (McKenzie Milton) to the UConn 14Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
47.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+31
49.2%
Matthew Wright 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:1850% → 49%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
50.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for 13 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
50.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
49.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
49.3%
Justin Wain punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
48.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon Hamilton, broken up by Luke CarrezolaSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
48.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
48.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
49.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4554% → 65%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
53.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 33 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
54.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
54.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
53.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
54.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for 9 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
54.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 2:5138% → 50%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
61.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+30
61.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 30 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
60.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 21 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
58.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 1 yd to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+7
61.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 7 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+4
61.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 4 yds to the UConn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
49.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 5:2557% → 66%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
57.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
58.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 9 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
58.9%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
58.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
59.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 7 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
58.9%
Noel Thomas run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
58.3%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
57.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
59.1%
Ron Johnson run for 13 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
59.1%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
59.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+6
58.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 6 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 4
OPP 13
-5
57.4%
DAVIS, Tyler pass incomplete to MYERS, Tommy, PENALTY UCONN false start (PEART, Matt) 5 yards to the UCF18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
65.9%
Bobby Puyol 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:2438% → 54%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
61.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
59.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
50
0
59.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
50
+15
60.0%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to SNELSON, D., QB hurry by ORMSBY, Cole, PENALTY UCONN personal foul (STAPLETON, Cam) 15 yards to the UCONN35, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
57.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to McKenzie Milton for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 36Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+17
60.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 17 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
45.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3347% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
51.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 4 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
51.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
52.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jordan Johnson) to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
52.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 10 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
51.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
49.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 11 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
33.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
38.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 11 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
39.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-5
40.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 40Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-10
38.1%
Garrett Anderson sacked by Errol Clarke for a loss of 10 yards to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
35.9%
Justin Wain punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian KillinsSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
36.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+10
38.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 10 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
38.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
38.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 9 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
40.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel Newsome, broken up by Drico JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
40.0%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
38.7%
Justin Wain punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
35.8%
MILTON, M. pass complete to OLDHAM, Taylor for 11 yards to the UCF33 (CARREZOLA, Luke), PENALTY UCF ineligible downfield on pass (EVANS, Aaron) 5 yards to the UCF17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
36.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+8
37.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 8 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
37.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds, downed at the UConn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17MISSED FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1640% → 38%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
40.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 19 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
41.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 23 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
43.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
43.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
41.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
38.1%
Bobby Puyol 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5966% → 78%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
34.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 13 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
33.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+14
31.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 14 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
30.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 6 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
30.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UConn 38Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
30.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the UConn 37Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+6
33.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
27.4%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
29.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+50
22.3%
Matthew Wright 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 2 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
24.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
23.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 11 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.1%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
27.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 5 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
26.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
50
0
27.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Drico JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
50
0
26.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
50
-5
24.9%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Andreas Knappe) to the UConn 45Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
23.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tommy MyersSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
22.0%
Justin Wain punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
16.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for 6 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
16.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 1
50
+2
16.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
15.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the UConn 47Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
15.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 5 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-4
16.2%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jordan Johnson) to the UConn 46Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
16.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
18.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
19.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 4 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
19.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
18.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the UConn 21Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
17.3%
Justin Wain punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
10.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
10.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-3
10.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
12.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:1914% → 16%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
13.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 21 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
14.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
14.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+12
15.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
18.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 11 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
18.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 12 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
20.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
20.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by T.J. MutchersonSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
19.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+3
15.9%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:2492% → 93%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
7.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-1
7.1%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-11
6.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Luke Carrezola for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 20
OWN 6
0
7.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
6.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq BealsSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+31
5.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 31 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
8.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
8.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
6.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 10
OPP 21
0
5.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
4.0%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 15
OWN 16
-4
4.2%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 19
OWN 12
-5
4.4%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:27
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q2 0:01
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 6:50
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com