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TLSA

Tulsa 31 at Houston 38

HOU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:25 · Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense+16.6Garbage-time factor+9.0Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:57: Dillon Birden run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +10.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:03: Justin Hobbs 38 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +9.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:31: James Flanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +37.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:21: Dane Evans sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 25 (Garrett Davis), fumble by Dane Evans recovered by Emeke Egbule 24 Yd Fumble Return (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +37.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:45TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27TLSA 4th & 15 at HOU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54HOU 4th & 3 at TLSA 15, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:58HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:07TLSA 4th & 4 at HOU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:36HOU 4th & 6 at TLSA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:49TLSA 4th & 8 at HOU 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:19TLSA 4th & 10 at HOU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:25HOU 4th & 2 at TLSA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:24HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:39HOU 4th & 5 at TLSA 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−6.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:37HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:07HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:55TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:57HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:29HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:03TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:31TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:21HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:1894% → 94%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
94.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
94.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+11
93.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
93.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+19
93.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 19 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.8%
Dillon Birden run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
93.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
93.8%
Dillon Birden run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:456% → 6%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0094% → 93%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
93.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 5 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
93.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-10
93.6%
Ward Jr., Greg pass complete to Dunbar, Steven for 10 yards to the TULSA45, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Fontana, Alex) 10 yards to the HOUSTON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskeySimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
93.4%
Dane Roy punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 2:587% → 7%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
93.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+10
93.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 10 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+16
93.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
93.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+3
92.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+9
92.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
93.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Evan Plagg) to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
93.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
93.2%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
92.9%
Redford Jones 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:2893% → 92%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
92.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 16 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
92.9%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
92.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 1
50
+3
92.7%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
92.7%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+7
92.7%
Dillon Birden run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
92.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
92.4%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+11
92.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
92.3%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+5
92.2%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+1
91.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
92.3%
Ty Cummings 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:318% → 8%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
92.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
92.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas TULSA Penalty, Illegal Touching (Keevan Lucas) to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:5892% → 94%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
92.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Dillon Birden for 5 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+16
92.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Dillon Birden for 16 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
92.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+15
92.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
92.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
91.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
92.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Noble) to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+27
91.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 27 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
92.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
94.2%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:227% → 7%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+14
93.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
93.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+12
93.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 12 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
92.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
92.6%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5794% → 94%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
93.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 16 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
93.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 14 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
93.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
93.8%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31 Dillon Birden fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:377% → 11%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.2%
Keevan Lucas run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
93.1%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete to Hobbs, Justin, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Winchester, Jeremy) 10 yards to the TULSA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
93.1%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 4
50
+15
92.7%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete to Johnson, Keenen, PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul (Williams, Terrell) 15 yards to the HOUSTON35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
92.4%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+9
92.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to James Flanders for 9 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
92.3%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
92.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+14
92.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 14 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.9%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 6 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4290% → 89%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
90.0%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
90.0%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
89.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nigel Carter at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:3510% → 22%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
90.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+18
89.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 18 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+36
89.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 36 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
87.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 12 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
87.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.4%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.3%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0384% → 85%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
84.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
84.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Trent Martin return for no gain to the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4320% → 22%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.3%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
79.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 18 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
78.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 5
50
+1
77.0%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
76.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
77.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
78.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2482% → 80%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
81.5%
Dillon Birden run for 11 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
81.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
82.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
82.0%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+17
80.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 17 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
81.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+4
81.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-5
79.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:4125% → 26%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
75.2%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
74.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+10
75.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 10 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
72.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
73.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+7
72.7%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
71.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
70.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
71.9%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
74.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:3877% → 89%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
77.3%
Mulbah Car run for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
79.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
78.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+1
78.3%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+11
76.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
78.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+11
78.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
78.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
89.3%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3216% → 14%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
84.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Keevan Lucas) to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+13
85.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 2
50
+3
82.1%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.3%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
83.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
84.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
86.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 31 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
18 plays · 84 yds · 7:4189% → 97%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
89.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
89.3%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
88.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.8%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
89.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+17
89.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
50
+5
90.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
91.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
91.2%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Fontana) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 17
OPP 45
-1
90.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+12
90.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+6
90.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
91.4%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
91.3%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+3
90.8%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+4
89.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
91.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
96.7%
Dillon Birden run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:186% → 16%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
94.1%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
94.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to James Flanders for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+23
93.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 23 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
84.2%
Justin Hobbs 38 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2190% → 90%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
90.4%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 9Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+7
90.3%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-4
90.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
89.9%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nigel Carter at the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:4415% → 55%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
84.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 10 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
84.2%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete to Lucas, Keevan, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Wilson, Brandon) 15 yards to the HOUSTON28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
82.0%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+3
81.9%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
81.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+6
81.7%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
82.7%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Houst 3Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.5%
James Flanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:4161% → 63%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
61.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
64.6%
Dillon Birden run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+11
62.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
65.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
65.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
65.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
62.7%
Dane Roy punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0947% → 10%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
53.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 19 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-24
90.3%
Dane Evans sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 25 (Garrett Davis), fumble by Dane Evans recovered by Emeke Egbule 24 Yd Fumble Return (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25END OF GAME
12 plays · 74 yds · 1:159% → 16%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
91.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.2%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
89.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+25
90.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 25 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
85.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
85.7%
Evans, Dane pass complete to Johnson, Keenen for 3 yards to the HOUSTON21, PENALTY TULSA illegal touching (Johnson, Keenen) 0 yards to the HOUSTON24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+23
87.6%
James Flanders run for 23 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
86.0%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 2Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Jesse Brubaker for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:31
James Flanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-37.2
TD · Q4 1:21
Dane Evans sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 25 (Garrett Davis), fumble by Dane Evans recovered by Emeke Egbule 24 Yd Fumble Return (Ty Cummings Kick)
+37.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com