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CONN

UConn 27 at South Florida 42

USF
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:58 · Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 8 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+36.7Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:22: Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:41: Arkeel Newsome 70 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick) — CONN win probability +8.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:38: Arkeel Newsome 4 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick) — CONN win probability +11.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:30: Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +11.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:38: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +9.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CONN made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 12:58CONN 4th & 8 at USF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04CONN 4th & 9 at USF 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41USF 4th & 8 at USF 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:49USF 4th & 19 at USF 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:43CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50USF 4th & 1 at CONN 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:50USF 4th & 2 at CONN 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:17CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:15CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:22CONN 4th & 7 at USF 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:16USF 4th & 2 at USF 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:38USF 4th & 10 at USF 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:19CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:23USF 4th & 1 at USF 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.9%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:30CONN 4th & 20 at CONN 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.6
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:12CONN 4th & 8 at USF 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:12USF 4th & 1 at CONN 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−3.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−2.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:21CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 24, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:57CONN 4th & 2 at USF 4, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:35USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:22USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:41CONN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:38CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:30USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:38USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:21USF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:57USF Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:57CONN Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 6:5612% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 9 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
87.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
87.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
87.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UConn 46Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+17
87.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 17 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
87.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-4
87.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+8
87.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 8 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
87.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 17 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
87.0%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Nigel Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+1
87.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
87.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
85.3%
Bobby Puyol 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2985% → 86%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
85.3%
Marlon Mack run for 21 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
86.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 54 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
86.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.2%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Ron JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
86.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-3
86.4%
Justin Wain punt for 50 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
85.6%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+7
85.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the SFla 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla , return for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-5
85.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Kofi Amichia) to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+18
85.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 18 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
85.7%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-5
85.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Cameron Ruff) to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
85.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
85.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3715% → 15%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
84.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
84.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 3 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-1
84.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
84.6%
Justin Wain punt for 37 yds, downed at the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
84.2%
Rodney Adams run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
84.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 8 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
84.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
84.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-3
83.7%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Luke Carrezola for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
83.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 4 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
83.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-5
83.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Trey Rutherford) to the UConn 27Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
84.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
84.5%
Justin Wain punt for 46 yds, downed at the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.1%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
83.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+11
83.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 11 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
83.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 9 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+3
83.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
84.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 4 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
83.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 4 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
83.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for no gain to the UConn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
82.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 3 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-2
81.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-8
82.9%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 8 yards to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 17
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Justin Wain punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
83.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
82.3%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Jhavon Williams return for no gain to the UConn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2418% → 17%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
82.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the UConn 1Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
82.5%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 2Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+2
83.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UConn 4Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+4
82.6%
Justin Wain punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 49 , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 4 yds to the UConn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:3883% → 89%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
82.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 31 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
83.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
83.1%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the UConn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.5%
Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
87.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 21 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Alec BloomSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
87.2%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+6
88.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
88.0%
Justin Wain punt for 35 yds, downed at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:5688% → 88%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
88.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+9
88.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 9 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
88.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+8
87.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
88.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.8%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
88.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
87.3%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Obi Melifonwu return for no gain to the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
78.7%
Arkeel Newsome 70 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 1 yd Rodney Adams fumbled, forced by E.J. Levenberry, recovered by UConn Obi Melifonwu , return for no gain to the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:5425% → 36%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
75.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+17
75.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 17 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.0%
Arkeel Newsome 4 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
70.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 4 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
69.4%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
71.2%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
70.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+8
66.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds , Brian Lemelle returns for 8 yds to the UConn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 28Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
66.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
67.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq BealsSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
68.3%
Justin Wain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:5366% → 82%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
68.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
66.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 5 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
67.1%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
69.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
69.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+6
69.3%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
69.8%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to ADAMS, Rodney, PENALTY UCONN substitution infraction 5 yards to the UCONN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 5
OPP 31
0
71.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
71.0%
Tyre McCants run for 7 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
71.0%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+10
71.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the UConn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.1%
Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
77.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 17Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-7
79.0%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Jaymon Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 10Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
79.6%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the UConn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:0081% → 83%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the UConn 48Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
81.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+6
80.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
81.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 37 yds to the UConn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 0
OPP 2
0
83.1%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the UConn 2 Marlon Mack fumbled, forced by Mikal Myers, recovered by UConn Mikal Myers , return for no gain to the UConn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4923% → 23%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
76.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the UConn 4Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+7
76.9%
Ron Johnson run for 7 yds to the UConn 11Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
77.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
76.1%
Ron Johnson run for 6 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+1
75.0%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
76.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian Lemelle, broken up by Johnny WardSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
77.4%
Justin Wain punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:2780% → 91%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
79.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
80.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+17
79.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
81.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deatrick Nichols for 6 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
91.2%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 27FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:2611% → 13%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
89.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 23 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
88.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
87.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
86.7%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
86.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel Newsome, broken up by Kevin BronsonSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
86.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+33
87.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 33 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
85.4%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. sacked for loss of 4 yards to the USF15 (AWOLEKE, Daniel), PENALTY UCONN holding (LEVY, Richard) 10 yards to the USF21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+12
86.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
85.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
86.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
87.3%
Bobby Puyol 26 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5191% → 97%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 10 yds Rodney Adams fumbled, forced by Jhavon Williams, recovered by SFla Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
91.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
91.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
91.8%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
91.9%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 4 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
91.4%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
90.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
92.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+29
97.4%
Mitchell Wilcox 29 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
96.9%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 24Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+10
97.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 10 yds to the UConn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.5%
Marlon Mack 34 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 31TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:001% → 3%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 18 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+10
99.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 10 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.4%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass intercepted by SPENCER, Jalen at the USF10, SPENCER, Jalen return to the USF11 (JOHNSON, Ron), PENALTY USF pass interference 15 yards to the USF23, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
99.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (11 Yards) to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
99.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
99.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq BealsSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
96.7%
Alec Bloom 4 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.3%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
98.3%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
98.3%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:38
Arkeel Newsome 4 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)
-11.2
TD · Q3 5:30
Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+11.1
TD · Q4 12:38
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com