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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:21 · Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Shaquem Griffin
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:45: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +5.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:34: McKenzie Milton run for 63 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +8.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:35: Jahad Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:02: Aaron Boumerhi 47 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +5.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:01: Keith Kirkwood 8 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TEM win probability +77.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 9:49UCF 4th & 24 at UCF 13, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snapGo for it54.2%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.6%average punt
- Q1 7:52TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 42, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.1%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q1 3:52UCF 4th & 16 at TEM 24, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.615% to convertField goalTheir call55.9%68% to makePunt54.1%−1.7average punt
- Q1 0:25TEM 4th & 2 at UCF 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.4%57% to convertField goal42.6%−0.845% to makePunt42.3%−1.2average punt
- Q2 13:45TEM 4th & 25 at TEM 10, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it34.0%−1.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%average punt
- Q2 11:32UCF 4th & 13 at TEM 36, up 18Close callWent for it · 73.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.2%−0.721% to convertField goal74.0%42% to makePunt73.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:11TEM 4th & 3 at UCF 42, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.3%52% to convertField goal23.3%−3.030% to makePunt24.4%−1.9average punt
- Q2 8:03UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 36, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snapGo for it73.4%−2.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q2 0:03UCF 4th & 5 at TEM 43, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.1%42% to convertField goal73.9%−1.328% to makePunt74.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00TEM 4th & 1 at UCF 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.6%70% to convertField goal23.8%−2.838% to makePunt24.2%−2.4average punt
- Q3 7:39TEM 4th & 11 at UCF 14, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snapGo for it20.1%−1.523% to convertField goalTheir call21.6%84% to makePunt15.0%−6.6average punt
- Q3 7:39UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 15, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snapGo for it71.4%−3.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.1%average punt
- Q3 3:02TEM 4th & 15 at UCF 28, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snapGo for it16.0%−3.317% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%60% to makePunt9.9%−9.4average punt
- Q3 0:23UCF 4th & 13 at TEM 25, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snapGo for it65.5%−3.120% to convertField goalTheir call68.6%66% to makePunt54.8%−13.8average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 44, down 5Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it34.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 6:21TEM 4th & 15 at UCF 31, down 5Numbers favored field goal by 3.6 ptsWent for it · 25.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.5%−3.617% to convertField goal24.1%54% to makePunt19.3%−4.8average punt
- Q4 6:12UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 35, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it81.3%−2.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%average punt
- Q4 4:19TEM 4th & 18 at UCF 23, down 5Numbers favored field goal by 5.6 ptsWent for it · 24.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.5%−5.612% to convertField goal23.2%70% to makePunt12.7%−10.5average punt
- Q4 0:41UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 29, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snapGo for it88.9%−1.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:49UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick54.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:49TEM Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.8%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:45UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:34UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.7%97% to makeGo for two74.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:35TEM Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:01TEM Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick73.5%−1.097% to makeGo for twoTheir call74.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCFDrive 1TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1155% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
55.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+55
55.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 55 yds for a TD, (Nick Patti pass to Aaron Cochran for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0044% → 45%
Q1 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
55.6%
UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+11
55.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+28
55.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
55.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 5 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
55.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Praise Martin-Oguike for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 16
OWN 21
-8
55.4%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Haason Reddick for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 24
OWN 13
0
55.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jahad Thomas at the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q1 7:52
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+10
56.6%
Alex Starzyk punt for 39 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 10 yds to the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FG9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0057% → 57%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
57.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 6 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+15
57.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 15 yds to the Temp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
57.7%
MILTON, M. rush for 7 yards to the TEMPLE11, out-of-bounds (HAIRSTON,Nate;WILLIAMS,Avery), PENALTY UCF holding (FRANKS, Jordan) 10 yards to the TEMPLE28, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2743% → 41%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
57.5%
Jahad Thomas run for 7 yds to the Temp 35 Jahad Thomas fumbled, forced by Drico Johnson,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD7 plays · 64 yds · 1:3459% → 66%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+14
58.8%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to KILLINS, Adrian (ALWAN,Jarred), QB hurry by MARTIN-OGUIKE,P, PENALTY TEMPLE roughing passer (MARTIN,Jacob) 14 yards to the TEMPLE48, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
60.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 6 yds to the Temp 42Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
60.7%
TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Temp 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
66.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
65.5%
Phillip Walker sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 10 yards to the Temp 15 TEMPLE Penalty, intentional grounding (Phillip Walker) to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
65.7%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Adonis Jennings, broken up by Drico JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3267% → 75%
TEMDrive 10INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.6%
Phillip Walker sacked by Jock Petree and Brendon Hayes for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 24Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+36
73.8%
Phillip Walker pass intercepted T.J. Mutcherson return for 26 yds to the 50 yard line UCF Penalty, illegal block (Shaquem Griffin) to the Temp 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11DOWNS4 plays · -18 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-8
76.7%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Haason Reddick for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 41Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 18
OPP 41
+5
76.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 5 yds to the Temp 36Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 13
OPP 36
-15
75.6%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Romond Deloatch for a loss of 15 yards to the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 10:11
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+1
74.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
78.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 36 Dontravious Wilson fumbled, forced by Romond Deloatch, recovered by UCF Dontravious WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD11 plays · 71 yds · 4:1023% → 29%
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+15
77.7%
UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
76.7%
Brodrick Yancy sacked by Pat Jasinski for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 42Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+19
77.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 19 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15DOWNS11 plays · -1 yds · 2:3276% → 77%
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+6
74.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 6 yds Taylor Oldham fumbled, forced by Jared Folks, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
75.6%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Averee Robinson) to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-8
77.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Averee Robinson and Avery Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 5
OPP 43
-20
77.0%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Jacob Martin for a loss of 20 yards to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16FG17 plays · 61 yds · 7:2126% → 26%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
74.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 7 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
70.9%
WALKER,Phillip pass complete to KIRKWOOD,Keith for 9 yards to the UCF14 (KILLINGS, D.J.), PENALTY UCF holding (KILLINGS, D.J.) 10 yards to the UCF13, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
75.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 9
OWN 19
-4
74.6%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Romond Deloatch for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+26
73.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, downed at the TEMPLE 44 UCF Penalty, kick catching interference (Tre Neal) to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18FG6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1627% → 33%
Q3 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-9
72.4%
Phillip Walker sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19MISSED FG9 plays · 50 yds · 2:3969% → 68%
Q3 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
68.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 32 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:2334% → 34%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
-3
66.0%
Alex Starzyk punt for 36 yds , Chris Johnson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
TEMDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 21 yds · 4:0937% → 19%
Q4 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
62.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
64.6%
UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (Tony Guerad) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
61.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 13 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
59.5%
ARMSTEAD,R. rush for no gain to the UCF26 (GUERAD, Tony;BRIM, Demeitre), PENALTY TEMPLE holding (SHARGA,Nick) 10 yards to the UCF36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
63.3%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
66.1%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Brodrick Yancy, broken up by Errol ClarkeSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 15
OPP 31
0
80.9%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Shaquem GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
84.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 7 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
74.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 14 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 18
OPP 23
-8
82.2%
Phillip Walker sacked by Trysten Hill for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 29 Phillip Walker fumbled, recovered by UCF Jamiyus Pittman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 1:0093% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26TD5 plays · 70 yds · 0:3111% → 95%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
89.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
50
+16
87.4%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 16 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
82.4%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 26 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
5.3%
Keith Kirkwood 8 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:01
Keith Kirkwood 8 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-77.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-8.1
TD · Q2 12:34
McKenzie Milton run for 63 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+8