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HOU

Houston 40 at Navy 46

NAVY
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−35.9Home team on offense−1.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:03: Darryl Bonner 17 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +13.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:02: Josiah Powell 34 Yd Interception Return (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +17.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:12: Greg Ward Jr. 8 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +16.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:25: Brandon Colon 34 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +18.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:18: Dillon Birden 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings PAT blocked) — HOU win probability +16.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:52NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00HOU 4th & 7 at NAVY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:11NAVY 4th & 3 at HOU 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00HOU 4th & 3 at NAVY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:00HOU 4th & 9 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:44NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.0%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:54NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 4 at HOU 21, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:32HOU 4th & 4 at NAVY 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−10.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:26NAVY 4th & 1 at HOU 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−2.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:38NAVY 4th & 3 at HOU 23, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:13HOU 4th & 4 at NAVY 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:57HOU 4th & 12 at NAVY 17, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:09NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:13HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:55NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:41HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:03NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:02NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:12HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:25NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:18HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    24.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:57HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:599% → 10%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
9.4%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
9.7%
Will Worth run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+3
10.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
10.2%
Alex Barta punt for 54 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3090% → 90%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
10.3%
Dillon Birden run for 7 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+13
10.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
50
+5
10.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+13
10.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
10.2%
Steven Dunbar 32 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
11.3%
Chris High 12 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:3689% → 88%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
11.0%
Dillon Birden run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+2
11.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+22
11.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 22 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
11.5%
Dillon Birden run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
11.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 22 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Elijah Merchant, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
12.0%
Ty Cummings 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2112% → 16%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
12.2%
Chris High run for 13 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
12.7%
Will Worth run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+8
12.6%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+17
13.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 17 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
13.5%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
14.1%
Toneo Gulley run for 10 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
14.4%
Darryl Bonner run for 11 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
14.5%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-2
15.0%
Darryl Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 11 Darryl Bonner fumbled, recovered by Navy Darryl BonnerSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+4
14.7%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
15.6%
Bennett Moehring 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:5286% → 85%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
14.3%
Dillon Birden run for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
14.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
14.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 23
-2
14.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
15.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
14.8%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-5
15.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
15.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
15.3%
Ty Cummings 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:0916% → 23%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
15.8%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+13
16.5%
Will Worth run for 13 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
17.3%
Toneo Gulley run for 19 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
18.2%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+20
18.6%
Will Worth run for 20 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
18.9%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.8%
Will Worth 2 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4079% → 84%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
21.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
21.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
20.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 30 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
19.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Dillon Birden for 9 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+9
19.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
16.1%
Dillon Birden 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:2717% → 17%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
16.7%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
16.1%
Darryl Bonner run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+3
16.3%
Dishan Romine run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
16.5%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
18.1%
Toneo Gulley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
17.7%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Darryl Bonner, broken up by Garrett DavisSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+6
17.0%
Dishan Romine run for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
17.4%
Alex Barta punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:4881% → 82%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
19.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
18.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
19.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jarvis Polu for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+17
20.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 17 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
18.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 15 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskeySimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
18.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Josiah Powell return for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11END OF HALF
14 plays · 42 yds · 2:3920% → 29%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
19.7%
Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-5
19.2%
Will Worth run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 17
OWN 30
-2
18.3%
Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+15
18.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Isaiah Johnson) to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
21.3%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-3
22.4%
Dishan Romine run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+25
21.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 25 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
23.9%
Toneo Gulley run for 7 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-1
23.9%
Will Worth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
22.7%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
28.5%
Bennett Moehring 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:5675% → 76%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
26.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
24.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
23.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-2
24.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Dylan Fischer for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 41 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Navy Patrick Forrestal , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:4732% → 49%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
31.9%
Dishan Romine run for 11 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
33.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
33.4%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+4
32.9%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
34.7%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
48.6%
Darryl Bonner 17 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14INT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4656% → 39%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
43.9%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
44.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+34
61.2%
Josiah Powell 34 Yd Interception Return (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 4:3838% → 53%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
62.3%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+9
62.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 9 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
62.7%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
63.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+5
62.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Mulbah Car for 5 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
64.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+13
63.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 13 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
62.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 11 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
62.6%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+5
62.9%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
63.3%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
63.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
47.5%
Greg Ward Jr. 8 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2758% → 86%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
57.8%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
58.6%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+19
58.4%
Dishan Romine run for 19 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
63.4%
Shawn White run for 9 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
64.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
67.4%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+34
85.7%
Brandon Colon 34 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:5722% → 34%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+33
78.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 33 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Touching (Chance Allen) to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
77.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+25
78.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 25 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
77.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
78.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-5
79.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
80.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+7
81.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 7 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.9%
Dillon Birden 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 6:4677% → 87%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
77.4%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
76.6%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
77.1%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+20
81.2%
Will Worth run for 20 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
82.5%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
83.2%
Shawn White run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+11
82.7%
Toneo Gulley run for 11 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
84.7%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
86.3%
Myles Swain run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
87.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
87.0%
Shawn White run for no gain to the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19SF
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:4016% → 10%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
83.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
85.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 2 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
86.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 18
-18
90.1%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:3391% → 97%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
90.9%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
91.4%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+3
92.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
97.1%
Bennett Moehring 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 2:235% → 17%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
96.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
96.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 15 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
96.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Dillon BirdenSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
96.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+6
96.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
96.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+16
96.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 16 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
96.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
96.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-10
96.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Fontana) to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
96.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+17
83.3%
Chance Allen 17 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3795% → 95%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
94.7%
Will Worth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 48 Will Worth fumbled, recovered by Navy Will WorthSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+3
94.0%
Myles Swain run for 3 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
95.5%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 8
OPP 49
-5
95.0%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
94.6%
Alex Barta punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0311% → 11%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
89.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 14 yds to the Houst 34 lat. to Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 28 lat. to Dillon Birden for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 22 lat. to Greg Ward Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:25
Brandon Colon 34 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+18.3
TD · Q3 10:02
Josiah Powell 34 Yd Interception Return (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+17
TD · Q3 5:12
Greg Ward Jr. 8 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com