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ECU

East Carolina 22 at South Florida 38

USF
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.8USF 87.4%Davis Plowman 31 Yd Field GoalAWAY 16 - HOME 24 · Q4 11:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:49 · Davis Plowman 31 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+10.6Home team on offense+11.6Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Time remaining+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: D'Ernest Johnson 11 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +5.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:44: Marlon Mack 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +6.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Zay Jones 1 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +8.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:58: James Summers 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ECU win probability +24.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:06: Rodney Adams 62 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +21.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 1 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31ECU 4th & 4 at USF 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:31USF 4th & 11 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:14ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:00USF 4th & 4 at ECU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 4 at USF 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:26USF 4th & 4 at ECU 9, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:33ECU 4th & 8 at USF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54ECU 4th & 6 at USF 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 3 at ECU 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:39ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:27USF 4th & 3 at ECU 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:27USF 4th & 9 at ECU 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:49ECU 4th & 10 at USF 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−3.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:49USF 4th & 13 at USF 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:06ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:39ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:04ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 38, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:07ECU 4th & 5 at USF 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:51USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:34USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:44USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:27ECU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:58ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:06USF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:04USF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:299% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
91.5%
James Summers run for 21 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
91.5%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
91.5%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.5%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
91.5%
Philip Nelson run for 11 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
91.5%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+1
91.5%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
91.5%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+4
91.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
91.5%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
91.5%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+4
91.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 4 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
89.8%
Davis Plowman 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
89.8%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+8
90.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 8 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
90.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 3 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
90.0%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-10
89.9%
MACK, Marlon rush for 13 yards to the ECU27, out-of-bounds (AMOS, DaShaun), PENALTY USF holding (NORMAN, Marcus) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 11
50
0
89.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
89.0%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+2
89.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
89.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Auggie SanchezSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+15
89.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 15 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:0989% → 88%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
88.8%
Marlon Mack run for 14 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
88.9%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
88.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-8
88.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the ECaro 16 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+6
88.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+5
88.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
88.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-5
88.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+9
88.8%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to ADAMS, Rodney (GORE, Colby), PENALTY ECU targeting (GORE, Colby) 9 yards to the ECU8, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
88.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
88.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 6Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:5112% → 13%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.8%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
87.9%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+13
88.1%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, PENALTY USF pass interference (HARRIS, Nigel) 13 yards to the ECU29, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.7%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
87.5%
Philip Nelson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+17
87.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 17 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.8%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
86.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-1
86.9%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+2
87.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5187% → 88%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+14
87.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
87.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
87.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+17
87.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
87.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
87.6%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
87.3%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the ECaro 9Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
88.2%
Emilio Nadelman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:5312% → 16%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.9%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
87.8%
Devin Anderson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
87.6%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
87.4%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+11
87.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
86.9%
Philip Nelson run for 11 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
86.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 2 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
86.5%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
87.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
84.0%
Davis Plowman 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+65
84.9%
Marlon Mack run for 65 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
86.3%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the ECaro 7 Marlon Mack fumbled, forced by Dayon Pratt, recovered by ECaro Travis PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:0416% → 19%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+31
84.4%
James Summers run for 31 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
83.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 14 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
82.6%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+14
82.4%
Anthony Scott run for 14 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
82.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-3
82.5%
James Summers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
81.4%
Davis Plowman 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2084% → 91%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
84.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+9
84.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 9 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
85.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 41 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
85.4%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for 1 yard to the ECU5 (BAILEY, Demage), PENALTY USF illegal formation 5 yards to the ECU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
90.7%
D'Ernest Johnson 11 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1911% → 10%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.2%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+4
89.8%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+7
89.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 61 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 7 yds to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
89.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
89.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 40 Quinton Flowers fumbled, forced by Yiannis Bowden, recovered by SFla Jeremi HallSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
90.4%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
90.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+1
90.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 1 yd to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
89.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
89.4%
Philip Nelson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
89.4%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
89.9%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
90.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 38 yds, downed at the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1091% → 96%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
90.5%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for 2 yards to the USF49 (BROWN, Justin), PENALTY USF holding (AMICHIA, Kofi) 10 yards to the USF37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+13
89.9%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 7
50
+9
90.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
90.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+11
90.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+4
90.2%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
90.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 17 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
90.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
90.5%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
90.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Marlon Mack 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:175% → 14%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.2%
Philip Nelson sacked by Bruce Hector and Garry Cadet for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.3%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
95.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 18 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
95.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 10 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
94.7%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+46
94.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 46 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.4%
Zay Jones 1 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
14 plays · 24 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
90.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
90.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
90.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 5 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
90.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
90.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Mike MyersSimilar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+5
89.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-8
90.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 5 yds to the ECaro 32 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (Mitchell Wilcox) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 18
OPP 45
-10
90.4%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for 2 yards to the ECU43, out-of-bounds (BAGGETT, Steve), PENALTY USF holding (HALL, Jeremi) 10 yards to the USF45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 28
OWN 45
+9
90.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+10
89.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 10 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
89.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:5210% → 13%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+20
90.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 20 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
88.4%
MINSHEW, Grdnr pass incomplete, PENALTY ECU holding (MATAU, Chrstian) 10 yards to the ECU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+4
89.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+14
89.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 14 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
88.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 3 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
87.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 15 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
86.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+12
87.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 12 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
86.8%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
86.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
88.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
87.4%
Davis Plowman 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.9%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
90.0%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for 4 yards to the USF33 (PRATT, Dayon), PENALTY USF holding (HALL, Jeremi) 10 yards to the USF19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
89.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
88.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+6
88.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 53 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:1812% → 40%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
87.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
87.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Anthony Scott for 5 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+10
87.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 10 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-3
86.7%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+28
88.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 28 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
84.1%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+14
84.1%
James Summers run for 14 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.9%
James Summers 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5271% → 93%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.1%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
71.3%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
92.7%
Rodney Adams 62 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22INT
11 plays · 17 yds · 2:278% → 5%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
91.6%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+11
91.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
90.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Summers for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+3
91.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 3 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
90.7%
Gardner Minshew run for 3 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
92.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
92.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+34
95.2%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted Nigel Harris return for 34 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2495% → 99%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
95.4%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
98.5%
Marlon Mack 9 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:572% → 1%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
97.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Terrell Green for 7 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+15
97.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 15 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
97.8%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Juwuan Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+6
99.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Anthony Scott for 6 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Johnny WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.7%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
98.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
98.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 28 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 25
OPP 32
0
98.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:58
James Summers 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-24.2
TD · Q4 6:06
Rodney Adams 62 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+21.4
TD · Q3 5:27
Zay Jones 1 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com