Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 9 at UConn 20

CONN
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:41 · Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+12.5Garbage-time factor+2.3Pregame prior−1.3Score differential+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:05: Josh Pasley 26 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +3.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 59 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +16.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 6:29: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 26 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +16.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:41: Bobby Puyol 30 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +13.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27: Timeout CONNECTICUT, clock 03:27 — CONN win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21CIN 4th & 1 at CONN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21CONN 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:24CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:16CONN 4th & 12 at CIN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:10CIN 4th & 8 at CONN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:26CIN 4th & 20 at CONN 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:26CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:05CIN 4th & 9 at CONN 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:05CONN 4th & 3 at CIN 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−1.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00CIN 4th & 2 at CONN 47, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:29CIN 4th & 15 at CONN 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41CONN 4th & 1 at CIN 13, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%−4.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−19.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:41CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 47, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:26CIN 4th & 4 at CONN 43, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−3.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08CONN 4th & 6 at CIN 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:08CIN 4th & 10 at CONN 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 0:28CONN Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:29CONN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
45.0%
Noel Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+17
45.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
45.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
45.0%
Jason Thompson run for 3 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
45.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
45.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
50
0
45.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
50
0
45.0%
Justin Wain punt for 40 yds, downed at the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
45.9%
Tion Green run for 7 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+9
45.9%
Kahlil Lewis run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
45.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
45.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 3 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
45.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+9
45.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
45.5%
Hayden Moore sacked by Mikal Myers for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+13
45.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 13 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
45.5%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the UConn 38Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
45.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 8 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
45.5%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
45.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
47.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
50
0
47.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
50
0
47.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 10
50
0
47.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 10
50
0
46.8%
Justin Wain punt for 45 yds, downed at the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
47.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-2 Yards) to the Cincy 3Similar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 12
OWN 3
0
47.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tion GreenSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
47.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Grant Coleman, broken up by John GreenSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+2
47.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 2 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
48.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:2049% → 48%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
48.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
48.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+10
48.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 10 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
48.9%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Mark Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
48.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 11
OPP 34
-1
48.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+52
48.0%
Bobby Puyol 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:0653% → 55%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
47.1%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
46.6%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+27
47.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 27 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
45.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Matthew Walsh) to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
45.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 9 yds to the UConn 10Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
44.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
45.5%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
44.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
44.9%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the UConn 8Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate Cole, broken up by E.J. LevenberrySimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
45.1%
Josh Pasley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
45.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass intercepted Alex Thomas return for 25 yds to the UConn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FG
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5557% → 58%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
43.1%
Tion Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 18Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
43.4%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the UConn 26 Hayden Moore fumbled,Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 20
OPP 26
0
44.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+43
42.1%
Josh Pasley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.2%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel, PENALTY UCONN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UCONN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
42.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 6 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
41.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
41.5%
Justin Wain punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:5159% → 64%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
40.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.5%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 45 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Hayden MooreSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+11
41.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 11 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+14
39.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
39.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Sam Geraci for 5 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+15
38.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Avery Johnson for 15 yds to the UConn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
38.8%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
38.8%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the UConn 9Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
35.7%
Josh Pasley 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11INT
14 plays · 60 yds · 0:0038% → 41%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
37.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 15 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
38.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq BealsSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
37.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 11 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
38.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 6 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
39.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+5
39.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
40.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
39.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+4
38.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
40.2%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
40.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
40.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 5 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
41.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass intercepted Linden Stephens return for 13 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0066% → 68%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
34.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 20 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
33.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
33.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 11 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
32.2%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Obi Melifonwu return for 6 yds to the UConn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
49.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 59 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
45.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.2%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
45.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 16 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
43.0%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+7
43.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
42.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate Cole, broken up by Vontae DiggsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
44.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 6:2247% → 69%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
46.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
47.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
45.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.2%
Ron Johnson run for 6 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
49.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 10 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
50.1%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
50.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 3 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
49.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
51.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
50.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
52.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 9 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+26
68.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 26 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.7%
Kahlil Lewis run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
60.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 22 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
58.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 12 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
57.2%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-7
55.9%
Hayden Moore sacked by Folorunso Fatukasi for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
61.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
62.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18FG
6 plays · 76 yds · 3:1365% → 82%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+67
65.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 67 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
69.9%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-5
69.9%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Tommy Hopkins) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+10
69.3%
Ron Johnson run for 10 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
68.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+30
81.8%
Bobby Puyol 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24 CINCINNATI Penalty, IB ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
81.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
81.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0284% → 82%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
83.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-1
83.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for a loss of 1 yard Arkeel Newsome fumbled, forced by Grant Coleman, recovered by UConn Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
82.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
81.8%
Justin Wain punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
81.2%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
81.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
80.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Cole Ormsby for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
81.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Grant ColemanSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+19
82.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 19 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
77.4%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Avery, PENALTY CIN pass interference (JOHNSON, Avery) 15 yards to the CIN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+12
80.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 12 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
79.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+9
81.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 9 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
79.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22FG
22 plays · 74 yds · 6:4986% → 96%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
85.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 7 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
85.5%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Zach Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+20
84.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 20 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-5
87.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 44 Bryant Shirreffs fumbled, recovered by UConn Bryant ShirreffsSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+10
85.5%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass incomplete to BEALS, Tyraiq, PENALTY CIN holding (THOMAS, Alex) 10 yards to the CIN46, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
87.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
86.3%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, delay of game (Bryant Shirreffs) to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+25
85.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 25 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq Beals, broken up by Linden Stephens CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
87.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+15
86.9%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel, PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 15 yards to the CIN9, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyraiq Beals CONNECTICUT Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
94.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
94.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
96.0%
Bobby Puyol 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
96.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 5 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
95.6%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 8 yards to the UConn 48 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Korey CunninghamSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
96.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+15
96.4%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete (ROBINSON IV, Jo), PENALTY UCONN pass interference (ROBINSON IV, Jo) 15 yards to the UCONN33, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate Cole, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
95.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
96.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0597% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 32Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 59 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q3 6:29
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 26 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+16.5
FG · Q3 0:41
Bobby Puyol 30 yd FG GOOD
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com