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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreSMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:51 · Josh Williams 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 8:31: Braeden West 4 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +33.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:32: D'Angelo Brewer 35 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +36.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Josh Williams 25 Yd Field Goal — SMU win probability +37.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Josh Williams 22 Yd Field Goal — TLSA win probability +15.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Dane Evans 14 Yd Run — TLSA win probability +46.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11SMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
- Q1 12:28TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 7Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:43SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.9%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%average punt
- Q1 10:46TLSA 4th & 15 at SMU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snapGo for it75.2%−0.117% to convertField goal75.3%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q1 9:11SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.6%average punt
- Q1 5:21TLSA 4th & 7 at SMU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snapGo for it75.2%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call75.3%91% to makePunt74.0%−1.3average punt
- Q2 14:51SMU 4th & 5 at TLSA 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snapGo for it28.6%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call28.7%72% to makePunt25.9%−2.8average punt
- Q2 14:03TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it67.1%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q2 12:16SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 9:49TLSA 4th & 6 at SMU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call65.2%64% to makePunt60.6%−4.6average punt
- Q2 5:57SMU 4th & 2 at TLSA 27, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snapGo for it35.2%57% to convertField goalTheir call34.4%−0.862% to makePunt30.3%−4.8average punt
- Q2 3:48TLSA 4th & 15 at SMU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snapGo for it55.9%−1.915% to convertField goalTheir call57.8%81% to makePunt51.7%−6.1average punt
- Q2 2:13SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it38.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%−1.8average punt
- Q2 0:09SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it26.8%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.2%average punt
- Q3 14:06TLSA 4th & 12 at SMU 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snapGo for it71.8%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call72.4%45% to makePunt71.9%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:00SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it27.1%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q3 6:55TLSA 4th & 17 at SMU 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snapGo for it69.3%−2.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.0%average punt
- Q3 3:38SMU 4th & 22 at SMU 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it23.4%−5.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.1%average punt
- Q3 0:03TLSA 4th & 6 at SMU 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snapGo for it70.7%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call70.8%60% to makePunt61.8%−9.0average punt
- Q4 14:37SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it27.6%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q4 11:52TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 16, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it68.8%−2.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.1%average punt
- Q4 11:08SMU 4th & 3 at TLSA 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.6%53% to convertField goal28.9%−2.742% to makePunt27.3%−4.3average punt
- Q4 4:17SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 44, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 7.3 ptsPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it30.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%−7.3average punt
- Q4 2:41TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it72.0%−10.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q4 1:35SMU 4th & 5 at TLSA 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.6%−6.3average punt
- Q4 0:00SMU 4th & 4 at TLSA 8, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snapGo for it18.9%−19.842% to convertField goalTheir call38.8%90% to makePunt7.9%−30.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:19SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.2%97% to makeGo for two23.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:07TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:58SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.5%97% to makeGo for two39.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:50TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.8%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:31SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.1%97% to makeGo for two57.7%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 5:32TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSMUDrive 1TD8 plays · 70 yds · 1:3526% → 27%
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+20
73.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
73.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kerwin Thomas) to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4273% → 73%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
73.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3727% → 27%
Q1 11:43
4TH & 7
OWN 16
+5
72.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 40 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD7 plays · 0 yds · 0:4973% → 73%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
72.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2427% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG13 plays · 25 yds · 3:3973% → 72%
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
72.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 16 yds Josh Atkinson fumbled, forced by Jordan Wyatt, recovered by Tulsa Justin Hobbs for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+9
73.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD6 plays · 87 yds · 1:5028% → 30%
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+25
71.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 25 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD2 plays · 61 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FG11 plays · 48 yds · 2:5931% → 36%
Q1 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+6
68.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
68.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 4
50
+9
67.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
67.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 14 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+6
66.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 6 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10MISSED FG5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4765% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11MISSED FG4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4436% → 36%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+8
63.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 8 yds to the Tulsa 31 TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevis Gipson) to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FG13 plays · 44 yds · 2:2163% → 64%
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+11
63.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
63.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
63.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
64.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG12 plays · 35 yds · 3:3337% → 44%
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+10
62.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
61.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Alex Honey for 11 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-2
60.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
61.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 8 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0861% → 63%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
61.2%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+11
62.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 11 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-8
60.2%
Dane Evans sacked by J.T. Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15MISSED FG6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3238% → 40%
Q2 2:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
60.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 52 yds, Keidrien Wadley returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 16, TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16DOWNS TD7 plays · 54 yds · 0:5361% → 75%
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+10
60.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 10 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
61.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
61.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 19 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
64.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 13 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 0 yds · 0:5128% → 27%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
72.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+10
71.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
72.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
73.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+14
73.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 45 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 14 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18DOWNS1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19MISSED FG6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3974% → 70%
SMUDrive 20DOWNS TD2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0435% → 48%
TLSADrive 21TD10 plays · 45 yds · 2:4062% → 72%
SMUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3532% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3570% → 68%
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
50
+8
72.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
73.3%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-10
72.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Mason Gentry and Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 3:1232% → 29%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
68.4%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+15
69.5%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Sutton, Courtland, PENALTY TULSA personal foul 15 yards to the SMU33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-12
66.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the SMU 36 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 22
OWN 21
-10
67.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 32
OWN 11
+10
67.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 22
OWN 21
+1
70.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 39 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 1 yd to the Tulsa 22 TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25MISSED FG12 plays · 46 yds · 3:2769% → 70%
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
68.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 18 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
70.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
72.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Zelt Minor for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+15
69.6%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2433% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 2:2371% → 69%
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+8
68.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
71.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+13
70.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+9
68.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 39 yds , James Proche returns for 9 yds to the SMU 25 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28DOWNS6 plays · 15 yds · 0:3735% → 35%
TLSADrive 29INT6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5775% → 72%
Q4 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+30
71.5%
Dane Evans pass intercepted for a Darrion Millines return for 45 yds to the Tulsa 30, TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30TD3 plays · 15 yds · 0:2441% → 75%
TLSADrive 31TD10 plays · 72 yds · 2:4341% → 79%
SMUDrive 32PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1034% → 36%
Q4 4:17
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
64.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2478% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 34END OF GAME11 plays · 44 yds · 2:3534% → 55%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Keanu HillSimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 5
OPP 47
+13
77.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
69.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Trent MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 35FG7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
TLSADrive 36TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Dane Evans 14 Yd Run
+46.9
FG · Q4 0:00
Josh Williams 25 Yd Field Goal
-37.7
TD · Q4 5:32
D'Angelo Brewer 35 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
+36.3