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USF

South Florida 45 at Cincinnati 20

CIN
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:11 · Josh Pasley 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−27.5Score differential−17.1Pregame prior−4.6Garbage-time factor−10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:25: Ross Trail run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +4.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:00: Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +10.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:40: Marlon Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +11.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:29: Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +12.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:32: Ross Trail pass intercepted for a TD Johnny Ward return for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +11.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:06USF 4th & 1 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19USF 4th & 5 at CIN 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10CIN 4th & 4 at USF 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:45USF 4th & 1 at USF 13, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:31USF 4th & 19 at CIN 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:36CIN 4th & 19 at USF 39, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:57CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 30, down 4
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:16USF 4th & 1 at CIN 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.8%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:16USF 4th & 9 at CIN 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:19USF 4th & 10 at CIN 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:11CIN 4th & 6 at USF 31, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:30CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:33USF 4th & 9 at USF 20, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:14CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 43, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:10USF 4th & 2 at USF 41, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:20CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:36USF 4th & 5 at CIN 34, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:27CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:54USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:25CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:07USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:00CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:40USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:29USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:32USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:30USF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 5:4169% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.0%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
31.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
31.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 18 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
31.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+7
31.4%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 5
50
+4
31.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
31.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
31.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
31.3%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+9
31.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 9 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
31.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 17 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
31.3%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
31.3%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
31.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+5
31.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside (Marquise Copeland) to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
33.1%
Emilio Nadelman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
33.4%
Tion Green run for 15 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
33.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tion Green for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
33.8%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
33.8%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
33.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, downed at the SFla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
33.9%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+3
33.9%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+2
33.9%
Rodney Adams run for 2 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 1
OWN 13
+4
34.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 49 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2135% → 39%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
34.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 9 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
35.1%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
34.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 2 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
35.1%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+7
35.1%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 7 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
35.5%
Ross Trail pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+19
35.5%
Tion Green run for 19 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
35.5%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
39.2%
Tion Green run for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:2363% → 67%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
37.3%
Marlon Mack run for 29 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
36.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 21 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
36.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 7 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
33.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2335% → 43%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
35.0%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
35.1%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
35.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
36.3%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+11
37.1%
Mike Boone run for 11 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
37.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+17
37.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 11 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (Nigel Harris) to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
37.8%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Ross Trail run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:0961% → 66%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
39.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
38.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+19
38.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 19 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
38.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 11 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
38.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 6 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
34.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.5%
Ross Trail run for no gain to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
36.4%
Ross Trail pass intercepted Khalid McGee return for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
34.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
34.3%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+5
35.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside (Cortez Broughton) to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-11
34.7%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Alex Pace for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 37 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal use of hands ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
36.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 6:0536% → 50%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
36.3%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
36.5%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+4
35.8%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+24
36.7%
Tion Green run for 24 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
38.5%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
38.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
39.2%
Ross Trail sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+16
37.2%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 16 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+28
39.0%
Ross Trail pass complete to Avery Johnson for 28 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.2%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
40.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.4%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:1953% → 64%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
46.8%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+25
46.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 25 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
44.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
44.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 13 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
43.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 28 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.2%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
35.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cortez Broughton) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 1:0437% → 36%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
37.4%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 13 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
38.3%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 13 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
40.5%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 19 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
42.7%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-7
42.5%
Ross Trail sacked by Daniel Awoleke for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 39 Ross Trail fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ross Trail , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 19
OPP 39
0
37.1%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Tion GreenSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
35.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
35.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
35.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
36.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
38.7%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-2
37.6%
Ross Trail run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:57
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+7
35.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 49 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 7 yds to the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
35.2%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-3
34.2%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+11
36.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 11 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
33.5%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
33.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
33.9%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
35.0%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
33.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
33.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
33.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
35.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16INT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
36.8%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 3Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
36.7%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+17
35.4%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 17 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
37.4%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+5
39.6%
Ross Trail run for 5 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
37.9%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
39.6%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+6
36.9%
Ross Trail pass intercepted Ronnie Hoggins return for 6 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1368% → 81%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
32.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
31.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
30.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 4 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
30.7%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
19.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.1%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
21.6%
Kahlil Lewis run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+12
20.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 12 yds Nate Cole fumbled, forced by Jaymon Thomas, recovered by SFla Nigel HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
19.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
19.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
19.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
21.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 40 yds, downed at the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4420% → 9%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
19.9%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Avery Johnson, broken up by Auggie SanchezSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
19.7%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+11
8.5%
Ross Trail pass intercepted for a TD Johnny Ward return for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:139% → 8%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
9.1%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+9
8.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+32
9.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 32 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
11.1%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+6
8.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
9.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
7.6%
Josh Pasley 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:4196% → 100%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
4.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+19
4.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
4.0%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+49
0.4%
Marlon Mack run for 49 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.4%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
0.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 52 yds, downed at the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
0.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
0.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-2
0.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
0.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.5%
Gunner Kiel run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
0.5%
Chad Banschbach run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
0.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+10
0.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 33 , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 10 yds to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
0.3%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+3
0.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds, downed at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Chad Banschbach run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
0.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
0.3%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to GRAY, Devin, PENALTY USF pass interference (WARD, Johnny) 15 yards to the CIN45, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Brayden BeardSimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+10
0.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 10 yds to the SFla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28END OF GAME
17 plays · 66 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
0.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 1 yd to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+8
0.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 8 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deangelo Antoine, broken up by Davin PierceSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 8 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
0.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Alex Mut for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
0.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 5 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Jordan Reed for no gain to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+10
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 10 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
0.2%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
0.2%
Trevon Sands run for 1 yd to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+9
0.2%
Trevon Sands run for 9 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:29
Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q3 1:32
Ross Trail pass intercepted for a TD Johnny Ward return for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 1:40
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com