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UCF

UCF 47 at East Carolina 29

ECU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:46 · Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−16.3Score differential−9.3Garbage-time factor−6.0Pregame prior+3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:30: Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +14.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:23: Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshon Perry KICK) — ECU win probability +13.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:13: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +22.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:20: Dontravious Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +20.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:05: Gardner Minshew pass intercepted for a TD Brendon Hayes return for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +11.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:10ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:27UCF 4th & 2 at ECU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:27UCF 4th & 7 at ECU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:04ECU 4th & 10 at UCF 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:20UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:03UCF 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 3 at UCF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:59ECU 4th & 4 at UCF 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:59UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:49ECU 4th & 25 at ECU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:39UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:55UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 19, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:21ECU 4th & 8 at UCF 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:30ECU 4th & 2 at UCF 2, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−10.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:46ECU 4th & 2 at UCF 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.4%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:23UCF 4th & 10 at ECU 45, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:05ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:28ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 40, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:17UCF 4th & 3 at ECU 33, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.7
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−1.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:48UCF 4th & 1 at ECU 1, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−3.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:48ECU 4th & 3 at UCF 6, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.7
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 11:33ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:22UCF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:30UCF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:23ECU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:13ECU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:20UCF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:05UCF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:14ECU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:54UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.3%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
58.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
58.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
58.3%
Adrian Killins run for no gain to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
58.3%
UCF Penalty, false start (Aaron Evans) to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+8
58.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
58.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds, downed at the ECaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0658% → 58%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
58.4%
Philip Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 5 Philip Nelson fumbled, recovered by ECaroSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+4
58.3%
Philip Nelson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
58.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
58.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
58.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 9 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
57.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+8
58.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 8 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
57.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
58.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
58.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
58.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.5%
Philip Nelson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
58.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 13 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.1%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
59.0%
James Summers run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
58.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
58.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
58.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
58.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan Franks, broken up by Dayon PrattSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+2
58.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 2 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
58.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.3%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+33
59.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 33 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
59.5%
James Summers sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+6
59.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+22
59.2%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted T.J. Mutcherson return for 22 yds to the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
58.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 15 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
57.5%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
57.4%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
57.4%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line Justin Holman fumbled, forced by Dayon Pratt, recovered by UCF Aaron Evans , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
50
0
57.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
50
0
57.3%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 10
50
0
57.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 10
50
0
58.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 4:5858% → 67%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
58.4%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
58.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for 3 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+5
57.7%
NELSON, Philip rush up middle for no gain to the ECU21 (LOWRY, Seyvon), PENALTY UCF offside defense (LOWRY, Seyvon) 5 yards to the ECU26, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
58.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
58.7%
Anthony Scott run for 8 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
59.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
59.9%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+13
59.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 13 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
60.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
59.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+11
59.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
60.5%
Devin Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
60.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
66.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 16 yds for a TD, (Joshon Perry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:2258% → 59%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
58.4%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+26
58.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 26 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
60.3%
Philip Nelson run for 12 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
60.6%
Anthony Scott run for 7 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+13
61.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 13 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
61.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.0%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+1
60.3%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
59.3%
Jake Verity 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
55.5%
Hayden Jones run for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
54.9%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
57.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
59.7%
NELSON, Philip deep pass complete to FARRIER, Deondr for 58 yards to the UCF4 (Drico Johnson), PENALTY ECU holding 10 yards to the ECU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-5
58.4%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 25
OWN 23
0
58.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 25
OWN 23
0
57.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 25
OWN 23
+10
56.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 49 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 10 yds to the UCF 33 UCF Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
54.7%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
55.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
56.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
57.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 70 yds, downed at the ECaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
54.3%
Devin Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:5650% → 60%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
50
-1
50.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+16
51.3%
Adrian Killins run for 16 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
39.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 35 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:0042% → 46%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
42.1%
NELSON, Philip middle pass incomplete to FARRIER, Deondr, PENALTY UCF holding (BURKETT, C.) 10 yards to the ECU35, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.7%
Philip Nelson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
44.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+50
42.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 50 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
46.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 5 yds Deondre Farrier fumbled, forced by T.J. Mutcherson, recovered by UCF Shaquill GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1758% → 57%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
41.6%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
41.9%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
42.3%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
42.7%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:2142% → 42%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
41.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
50
0
43.3%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Jamiyus PittmanSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
50
+2
42.7%
Philip Nelson run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
42.9%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
41.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
40.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -22 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
41.0%
Philip Nelson sacked by Mark Rucker for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 32
OWN 3
0
38.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
40.7%
Philip Nelson sacked by Shaquem Griffin for 0 yards to the ECaro 6 Philip Nelson fumbled, recovered by ECaro Justin Sandifer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 6
-3
39.4%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2864% → 79%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+33
36.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 33 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.5%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
27.9%
UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+31
29.3%
Philip Nelson run for 31 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
30.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 25 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
30.7%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.7%
Philip Nelson run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
30.0%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
29.5%
Philip Nelson sacked by Tony Guerad and Pat Jasinski for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
20.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 10 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
20.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
20.5%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
21.1%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Colby Gore return for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:2325% → 38%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
24.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 9 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-1
25.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
25.0%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+6
24.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
25.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jeffrey Coprich for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+1
25.6%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
25.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+15
24.6%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to SCOTT, Anthony, PENALTY UCF pass interference 15 yards to the UCF20, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
26.1%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
25.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by T.J. MutchersonSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+12
24.7%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, PENALTY UCF pass interference (KILLINGS, D.J.) 12 yards to the UCF9, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
37.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshon Perry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
29.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
30.3%
Justin Holman run for 15 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by DaShaun AmosSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
29.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-5
30.1%
WILSON, Dont. rush up middle for 3 yards to the ECU35 (BOWDEN, Yiannis), PENALTY UCF illegal formation 5 yards to the ECU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-2
30.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+1
31.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 37 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 0:5228% → 50%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
27.6%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
27.6%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+15
26.2%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, roughing passer (Mark Rucker) to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
28.2%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+75
50.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:5358% → 77%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
42.2%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
42.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan Payton, broken up by Travon SimmonsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+40
43.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 40 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
22.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1527% → 15%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
27.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
15.1%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted for a TD Brendon Hayes return for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
15.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
15.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete, broken up by Joey ConnorsSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
15.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
15.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30INT
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:4590% → 95%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
10.1%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+6
10.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+8
10.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 8 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
10.2%
HAMILTON, Jawon rush over right tackle for 7 yards to the UCF35 (1B), PENALTY UCF holding (JOHNSON, Jordan) 10 yards to the UCF18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+25
10.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 25 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
9.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
9.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 8 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
9.6%
HOLMAN, Justin sacked for loss of 13 yards to the UCF38 (BOWDEN, Yiannis), fumble by HOLMAN, Justin recovered by ECU BROWN, Justin at ECU38, PENALTY ECU offside defense 5 yards to the ECU44, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
9.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cal Bloom for 19 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
9.2%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+5
4.8%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Yiannis Bowden return for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 31DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
7.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 4 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
8.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Seyvon LowrySimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
8.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay Johnson, broken up by Errol ClarkeSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
7.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0796% → 98%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
4.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
4.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
4.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
2.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 33INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
5.1%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted Shaquill Griffin return for 13 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 34FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1498% → 98%
Q4 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
1.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.9%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
1.7%
Matthew Wright 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 35TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 2:342% → 9%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
2.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 18 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
2.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Terrell Green, broken up by Demeitre BrimSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+23
2.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 23 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
2.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+2
2.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 2 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
2.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+8
2.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Terrell Green for 8 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
3.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Devin AndersonSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
3.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
2.8%
Gardner Minshew run for 7 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+5
2.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.1%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gardner Minshew pass to Zay Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 36TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:2098% → 97%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
1.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 11
50
+3
1.7%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
2.9%
Taj McGowan run for 47 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 37FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
1.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Terrell Green for 20 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
1.5%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Justin McDonald for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 46 Gardner Minshew fumbled, recovered by UCF Justin McDonald , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 38END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:13
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q4 14:20
Dontravious Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q3 12:30
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com