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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:20 · Zachary Block punt for 35 yds , Gary Haynes returns for no gain to the LaLaf 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorTime remainingScore differentialDefense timeoutsOffense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 5:55: Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +34.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Terren Encalade 25 Yd pass from Glen Cuiellette (Andrew DiRocco Kick) — TULN win probability +42.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT 0:00: Elijah McGuire 1 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick) — UL win probability +39.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · OT 0:00: Andrew DiRocco 48 Yd Field Goal — TULN win probability +26.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT 0:00: Terren Encalade 7 Yd pass from Glen Cuiellette (Glen Cuiellette Pass to Kendall Ardoin for Two-Point Conversion) — TULN win probability +22.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 11 of 15UL made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
- Q1 10:40TULN 4th & 2 at UL 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.8%56% to convertField goal59.8%−0.180% to makePunt59.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 5:16UL 4th & 6 at TULN 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snapGo for it40.9%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call40.9%70% to makePunt39.6%−1.3average punt
- Q1 5:11TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snapGo for it57.4%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.9%average punt
- Q2 13:48UL 4th & 9 at TULN 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.0%−0.530% to convertField goalTheir call43.5%70% to makePunt40.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 13:48TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 28, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.8%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.5%average punt
- Q2 10:16TULN 4th & 3 at UL 6, down 6Close callKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snapGo for it54.0%46% to convertField goalTheir call53.1%−0.991% to makePunt47.3%−6.8average punt
- Q2 10:16UL 4th & 7 at UL 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snapGo for it42.5%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%average punt
- Q2 9:20TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q2 4:16TULN 4th & 16 at UL 18, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snapGo for it51.1%−2.114% to convertField goalTheir call53.1%79% to makePunt46.9%−6.2average punt
- Q2 4:16UL 4th & 11 at UL 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it40.2%−1.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.0%average punt
- Q2 2:21TULN 4th & 2 at UL 47, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it60.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%−1.2average punt
- Q2 1:20UL 4th & 6 at UL 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it40.6%−1.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it59.3%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q3 12:57UL 4th & 9 at UL 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snapGo for it41.3%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q3 11:30TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 40, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it59.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%−1.3average punt
- Q3 8:23TULN 4th & 3 at UL 3, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snapGo for it61.3%44% to convertField goalTheir call59.3%−2.093% to makePunt48.7%−12.6average punt
- Q3 8:16UL 4th & 12 at UL 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it32.4%−2.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.3%average punt
- Q3 7:01TULN 4th & 23 at TULN 12, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it59.5%−5.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.9%average punt
- Q3 3:18UL 4th & 3 at TULN 3, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snapGo for it38.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%−2.193% to makePunt24.7%−13.6average punt
- Q4 15:00UL 4th & 7 at UL 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snapGo for it22.2%−1.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q4 13:38TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it80.4%−1.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q4 11:58UL 4th & 1 at TULN 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.2%70% to convertField goal14.7%−6.527% to makePunt16.1%−5.2average punt
- Q4 11:58UL 4th & 1 at TULN 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.6%67% to convertField goal18.5%−3.292% to makePunt4.5%−17.1average punt
- Q4 5:55UL 4th & 1 at TULN 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.8%59% to convertField goal15.0%−8.894% to makePunt1.6%−22.2average punt
- Q4 5:55TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snapGo for it52.0%−3.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q4 4:57UL 4th & 2 at UL 32, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 46.8% before the snapGo for it48.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 3:47TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snapGo for it53.3%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%average punt
- Q4 2:26UL 4th & 5 at UL 40, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 48.0% before the snapGo for it44.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%−2.1average punt
- Q4 0:32TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it51.7%−2.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UL made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q3 1:07TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:55UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%−0.297% to makeGo for two41.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1FUMBLE14 plays · 49 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
57.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Troy McCollum for 7 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+4
57.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
57.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 30 yds to the TULANE 29 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
57.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 3 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+34
57.7%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Nico Marley for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 25 Anthony Jennings fumbled, recovered by Tulan Peter Woullard , return for 0 yards , return for 34 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
58.6%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Terren Encalade for 5 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3FG11 plays · 61 yds · 3:3742% → 43%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
57.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 13 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
57.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 2 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+32
58.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 32 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
56.9%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 12 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
57.7%
Johnathan Brantley sacked by Mario Osborne for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 19
OWN 39
-1
56.7%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Josh Rounds for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 38Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
56.1%
Zachary Block punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gary Haynes at the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FG10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5444% → 48%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
56.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 11 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
56.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 39 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-7
54.6%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Tanzel Smart for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 12:22
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+37
52.4%
Anthony Jennings pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for 37 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2556% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 10:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
56.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
ULDrive 11INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
TULNDrive 12FG5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4358% → 59%
Q2 5:59
3RD & 12
OPP 14
-4
56.5%
Glen Cuiellette sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Donnie Lewis Jr.Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.2%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (D'Aquin Withrow) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+31
57.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the TULANE 40 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1062% → 61%
Q2 2:21
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+6
61.2%
Zachary Block punt for 33 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 6 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5144% → 42%
TULNDrive 16INT4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0060% → 63%
ULDrive 17END OF HALF4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1047% → 48%
TULNDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
ULDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.4%
Glen Cuiellette pass incomplete to Chris Johnson, broken up by Simeon ThomasSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+7
57.8%
Josh Rounds run for 7 yds to the Tulan 39 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Zachary Block punt for 54 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for no gain to the LaLaf 6 Elijah McGuire fumbled, recovered by Tulan Richard AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21FG4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0163% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 8:16
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
65.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q3 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
62.8%
Glen Cuiellette sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 17 Glen Cuiellette fumbled, recovered by Tulan Josh Rounds , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+2
61.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Corey Turner blocked by Corey Turner T.J. Posey return for 2 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3844% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1158% → 84%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
57.7%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Devon Breaux for 16 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
60.4%
[GUN], CUIELLETTE, G. slant pass complete to MOONEY, Darnell for 6 yards to the TLN47 (Thomas, Simeon), PENALTY TLN ineligible downfield on pass (SANTA MARINA, K) 5 yards to the TLN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+19
58.0%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Terren Encalade for 19 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
83.6%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Terren Encalade for 34 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0725% → 23%
Q3 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
75.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 6 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
74.7%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Quinlan Carroll for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+10
76.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 10 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
77.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
83.1%
[GUN], ROUNDS, Josh rush over left tackle for no gain to the TLN13 (Jeffries, J.;Lee, Taboris), PENALTY TLN illegal formation 5 yards to the TLN8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+5
82.0%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Terren Encalade for 5 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
81.0%
Zachary Block punt for 36 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for no gain to the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 28TD18 plays · 53 yds · 6:0323% → 51%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
76.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Matt Barnes for 13 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+5
76.6%
[GUN], Jennings, A. slant pass incomplete to Riles, Al (ALLEN, Richard), PENALTY TLN offside defense (WOULLARD, Peter) 5 yards to the TLN9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
75.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Matt Barnes for 4 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 30PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q4 4:57
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
53.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 31PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
Q4 3:47
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
54.8%
Zachary Block punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 32PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 33PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:3758% → 58%
ULDrive 34END OF GAME5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0446% → 47%
ULDrive 35TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
TULNDrive 36TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
64.7%
Terren Encalade 25 Yd pass from Glen Cuiellette (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 37TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.4%
Darnell Mooney 25 Yd pass from Glen Cuiellette (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 38TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
ULDrive 39FG6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 74%
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
40.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 10 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 40FG8 plays · -6 yds · 0:0041% → 54%
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-15
35.4%
[GUN], CUIELLETTE, G. deep pass incomplete to MOONEY, Darnell, PENALTY TLN personal foul (HILLIARD, D.) 15 yards to the UL31, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 41TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 87%
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Terren Encalade 25 Yd pass from Glen Cuiellette (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
+42.1
TD · OT 0:00
Elijah McGuire 1 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)
-39.9
TD · Q4 5:55
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-34.8