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HOU

Houston 64 at Texas State 3

TXST
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD—TXST 0.2%Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds for atouchbackAWAY 57 - HOME 3 · Q3 6:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:06 · Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior−32.3Home team on offense−47.8Score differential−32.8Garbage-time factor−13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:10: D'Eriq King 48 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 2:06: Ty Cummings 31 Yd Field Goal — HOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:25: D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings PAT BLOCKED) — HOU win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 6:59: James Sherman 32 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:01: Dillon Birden 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 12 of 13HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:05TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30HOU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:30HOU 4th & 2 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:36TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:17TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:06HOU 4th & 8 at TXST 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:02TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:08TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 15, down 22
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:59TXST 4th & 15 at HOU 15, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:30HOU 4th & 4 at TXST 48, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:18TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 30, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:02TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 44, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:47TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 44, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:54HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 27, up 47
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:06TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 49, down 54
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:39HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 33, up 61
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 19 at TXST 41, down 61
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:10HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 26, up 61
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:35TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 24, down 61
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:28TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 26, down 61
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:25HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:10HOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:25HOU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:40HOU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:01HOU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:29HOU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:12HOU Touchdown, up 53 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
1.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
2.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
2.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 33 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:3098% → 98%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
2.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 6 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
2.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
2.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
50
+4
2.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
2.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
2.1%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
2.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+9
2.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 9 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
2.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 24 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
2.4%
Linell Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
2.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.5%
Greg Ward Jr. 10 Yd Run (Ty Cummings PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:333% → 3%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
2.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
2.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 11 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
2.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 11
50
-5
2.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+1
2.9%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+1
2.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
3.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 2:1097% → 97%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
3.1%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 12
-1
3.1%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+24
3.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 24 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
3.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 14 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
3.3%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+48
2.8%
D'Eriq King 48 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
3.1%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
3.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-6
3.0%
Tyler Jones sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 6 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 16
OWN 6
0
3.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+35
2.9%
Duke Catalon run for 35 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
2.9%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
2.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-6
3.0%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
2.7%
Ty Cummings 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:533% → 3%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
3.1%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
3.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+28
3.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 43 yds TEXAS STATE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Andrew Aneke) to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3097% → 98%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
2.7%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
2.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
2.8%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
2.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 18 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
2.8%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
2.9%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+10
2.9%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Bonner, Linell, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (Guidry III, Clarence) 10 yards to the TEXSTATE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
2.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:523% → 3%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
2.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+11
2.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to L.G. Williams for 11 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
2.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to L.G. WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+5
2.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds , D'Eriq King returns for 5 yds to the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:1598% → 98%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
2.2%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
2.3%
Duke Catalon run for 10 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
2.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 19 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
2.2%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Allen, Chance, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (McDowell, Brandon) 15 yards to the TEXSTATE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
2.1%
Duke Catalon 13 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:312% → 2%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
1.6%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 3
50
0
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to PJ AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
50
+11
1.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 11 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to PJ Anderson for 20 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
1.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to PJ Anderson for 4 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+9
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to L.G. Williams for 9 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
1.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Eric Luna for a loss of 6 yards Eric Luna fumbled, recovered by TexSt Eric LunaSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-3
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler JonesSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
1.5%
James Sherman 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4298% → 99%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 1 yd to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+14
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 14 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
1.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Gavin Graham for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Dillon BirdenSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+12
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 12 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+23
1.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 23 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
1.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 23 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Dillon Birden 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:171% → 1%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
1.2%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
1.1%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
1.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to L.G. WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+11
1.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 56 yds , D'Eriq King returns for 11 yds to the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.1%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
1.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 19 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
1.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+17
1.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 17 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
1.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Mulbah Car for 18 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
0.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+6
0.8%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.7%
Linell Bonner 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
0.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
0.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 8 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
0.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to PJ Anderson for 4 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.5%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
0.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for no gain to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
0.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 19Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
0.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
0.7%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
0.7%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+1
0.7%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
0.9%
Dane Roy punt for 33 yds, downed at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:561% → 0%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
0.5%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
0.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Willie Williams) to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:341% → 0%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.6%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+27
0.6%
D'Eriq King run for 27 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
0.6%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
0.5%
Kyle Postma 21 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
0.3%
Ty Cummings kickoff 63 yards to the TXST2, kickoff out of bounds, ball spotted at TXST35. Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
0.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Fred Nixon for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 3:2199% → 99%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.6%
Kevrin Justice run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
0.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
0.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Alex Leslie for 6 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
0.6%
Kevrin Justice run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
0.5%
Kevrin Justice run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-3
0.5%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
0.6%
Dane Roy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
0.2%
Tyler Tutt run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+7
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 7 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+13
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.2%
Tyler Tutt run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-13
0.1%
Tyler Jones sacked by Joeal Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 22
OWN 38
+3
0.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to L.G. Williams for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 47 yds , D'Eriq King returns for no gain to the Houst 41 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Josh Burrell run for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
0.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Dane Roy punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Tyler Tutt run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
0.1%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Tutt for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
0.1%
Connor White sacked by Aymiel Fleming for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 7:04100% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
0.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chris Johnson for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+8
0.3%
Kevrin Justice run for 8 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
0.3%
Kevrin Justice run for 11 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
0.2%
Kevrin Justice run for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
0.2%
Kevrin Justice run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
0.2%
Josh Burrell run for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+8
0.2%
Josh Burrell run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
0.2%
Josh Burrell run for 7 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
0.2%
Josh Burrell run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
0.2%
Josh Burrell run for 4 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.2%
Josh Burrell run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Kyle Postma 1 Yd Run (Joel Scarbrough Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Jericho Worrell run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Connor White run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
0.1%
White, Connor pass complete to Williams, L.G. for 7 yards to the TEXSTATE39, PENALTY TEXSTATE illegal block 15 yards to the TEXSTATE17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
0.1%
Connor White pass complete to Jericho Worrell for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:25
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings PAT BLOCKED)
-0.8
TD · Q1 5:10
D'Eriq King 48 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
-0.4
FG · Q1 2:06
Ty Cummings 31 Yd Field Goal
-0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com