Try the model
TCU

TCU 33 at SMU 3

SMU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2016 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:02 · Josh Williams 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior−26.0Home team on offense−9.3Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:33: Ryan Graf 46 Yd Field Goal — TCU win probability +0.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:29: Ryan Graf 20 Yd Field Goal — TCU win probability +1.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:50: John Diarse 75 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Ryan Graf Kick) — TCU win probability +7.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:17: Jaelan Austin 2 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Ryan Graf Kick) — TCU win probability +6.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:56: Brandon Hatfield 25 Yd Field Goal — TCU win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 11:43SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 20, down 3
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34SMU 4th & 18 at SMU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:54TCU 4th & 6 at SMU 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:16SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:33TCU 4th & 5 at SMU 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:37SMU 4th & 10 at TCU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:30TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:28SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:40TCU 4th & 4 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:07SMU 4th & 3 at TCU 36, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.9
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:29TCU 4th & 3 at SMU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:39SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:02SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 29, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:21SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 41, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:56TCU 4th & 5 at SMU 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:42SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 49, down 20
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:54TCU 4th & 2 at SMU 13, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:05TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 29, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 14:50TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:17TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:47TCU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:128% → 10%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.3%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+37
8.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 37 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
8.6%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
8.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
8.7%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Sutton, Courtland, PENALTY TCU offside (McFarland, James) 5 yards to the TCU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+8
8.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 8 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
8.9%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-5
8.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Chauncey Briggs) to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
9.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 10 yds to the TCU 3 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Courtland Sutton) to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+6
9.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
9.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+23
9.7%
Josh Williams 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5390% → 90%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
9.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
10.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
10.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
10.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Courtland Sutton at the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4410% → 11%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
10.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-6
10.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by Ty Summers and Chris Bradley for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 16
OWN 35
-2
10.8%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 18
OWN 33
+31
10.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds , Desmon White returns for 31 yds to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2989% → 88%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
11.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-15
11.3%
Kenny Hill sacked by Michael Scott for a loss of 15 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 22
OWN 45
+16
11.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 16 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
12.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, downed at the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3812% → 13%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
11.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Chauncey Briggs) to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+2
12.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+4
12.3%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
12.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+14
12.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds , Desmon White returns for 14 yds to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3688% → 88%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
12.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-10
12.5%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 1 yard to the SMU30, PENALTY TCU holding (Collins, Aviante) 10 yards to the SMU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
13.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+12
13.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 12 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
12.5%
Ryan Graf 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 2:3713% → 14%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.9%
Jordan Carmouche run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
13.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
13.0%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Castille, Xavier (James, Tony), PENALTY TCU offside (Carraway, Josh) 5 yards to the SMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
13.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
13.7%
Jordan Carmouche run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
13.9%
Jordan Carmouche run for 2 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+12
14.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 12 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
14.7%
Braeden West run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
15.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by James McFarlandSimilar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
14.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mitchell KaufmanSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
14.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds, downed at the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5586% → 85%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
14.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 13 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
14.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 18 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
14.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
14.2%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
14.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
15.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4916% → 16%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
16.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
16.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 4 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+29
16.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds , Desmon White returns for 29 yds to the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4785% → 84%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
15.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
15.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+11
16.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 11 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
15.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-4
15.9%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Anthony Rhone return for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 23 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Darrion Millines) to the SMU 1. Darrion Millines ejected for targeting. Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:2318% → 21%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
18.2%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+7
18.3%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+1
18.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
19.2%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+24
19.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 24 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
20.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+15
21.4%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Sutton, Courtland, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Gray, Deante) 15 yards to the TCU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
21.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
21.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
22.0%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Sutton, Courtland, PENALTY TCU offside (Collier, L.J.) 5 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
22.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby Walker, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
21.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:3181% → 82%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
18.9%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Hicks, Kyle for 4 yards to the TCU24, PENALTY TCU holding (Collins, Aviante) 10 yards to the TCU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+23
19.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 23 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
19.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+13
18.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 13 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
18.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+25
18.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 25 yds Taj Williams fumbled, forced by Jordan Wyatt, recovered by TCU T for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
18.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Kyle Hicks Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+7
18.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
18.1%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
18.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Cole HuntSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
18.2%
Ryan Graf 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3120% → 20%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
19.5%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+3
19.4%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
19.3%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
20.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:3180% → 81%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
19.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 15 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
20.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 15 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
19.2%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
18.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
18.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
14.0%
John Diarse 75 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Ryan Graf Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:3514% → 14%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+30
13.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 30 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
14.6%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
14.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
14.0%
Ben Hicks run for 15 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
15.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
15.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
15.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mitchell KaufmanSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
14.3%
Josh Williams 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:2186% → 93%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
14.1%
Hill, Kenny rush for 13 yards to the TCU42, PENALTY TCU holding (Collins, Aviante) 10 yards to the TCU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+12
14.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 12 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
14.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 11 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
13.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
13.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
13.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 6 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
13.8%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
14.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-4
14.5%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+30
15.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (RC Cox) to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
13.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 11 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
13.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 12 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
13.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Andre Petties-WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.7%
Jaelan Austin 2 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Ryan Graf Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:348% → 9%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
8.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 14 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
8.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
8.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
8.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
8.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FG
16 plays · 89 yds · 6:1993% → 98%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+18
7.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 18 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
7.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
7.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 12 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
6.7%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
6.6%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+22
5.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 22 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
5.1%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
5.0%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
5.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
5.0%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+15
5.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 15 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
4.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
4.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
4.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Dylan ThomasSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
2.2%
Brandon Hatfield 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:032% → 2%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
2.4%
Jordan Carmouche run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-6
2.3%
Ben Hicks sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+13
2.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
2.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 16 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
2.2%
Jordan Carmouche run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 3 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Nick OrrSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
2.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3998% → 99%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
1.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
1.6%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
1.6%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
1.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 8 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+37
1.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 37 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
1.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
1.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
1.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
1.0%
Brandon Hatfield 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.0%
Ben Hicks sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 20 SMU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ben Hicks) to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
1.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+34
1.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 34 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
1.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
1.0%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Niko Small return for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0099% → 100%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
0.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 10 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
0.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 42 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.1%
Trevorris Johnson 14 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
0.1%
Ben Hicks sacked by Joseph Broadnax and Tipa Galeai for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 13
OWN 16
0
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+18
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 15 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Nick Orr return for 12 yds to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tony James for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
Preston Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-7
0.1%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Matt McNew for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 14
OWN 29
+6
0.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 31 James Proche fumbled, recovered by SMU Kevin ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
0.1%
Jordan Carmouche run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 14
OWN 27
-3
0.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:50
John Diarse 75 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Ryan Graf Kick)
-7.9
TD · Q3 7:17
Jaelan Austin 2 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Ryan Graf Kick)
-6.8
FG · Q4 13:56
Brandon Hatfield 25 Yd Field Goal
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com