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NCAT

North Carolina A&T 21 at Tulsa 58

TLSA
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNCAT aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNCAT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:01 · Steven Sawicki punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+42.3Home team on offense+1.0Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 9:53: Redford Jones 25 yd FG GOOD — NCAT win probability +0.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:35: Oluwafemi Bamiro pass intercepted for a TD Kolton Shindelar return for 65 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:04: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 51 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:14: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:56: James Flanders run for 21 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NCAT made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53TLSA 4th & 8 at NCAT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:01NCAT 4th & 12 at TLSA 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:51TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NCAT 4th & 13 at NCAT 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:45NCAT 4th & 10 at NCAT 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:14NCAT 4th & 4 at NCAT 30, down 31
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:50NCAT 4th & 2 at NCAT 34, down 38
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:02NCAT 4th & 6 at TLSA 34, down 45
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:59TLSA 4th & 4 at NCAT 11, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:12TLSA 4th & 8 at NCAT 16, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:07NCAT 4th & 13 at NCAT 28, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:49TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 38, up 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:27NCAT 4th & 15 at NCAT 37, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NCAT 4th & 20 at NCAT 44, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:47TLSA 4th & 15 at NCAT 27, up 51
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:17TLSA 4th & 6 at NCAT 49, up 44
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:10NCAT 4th & 10 at NCAT 20, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:49TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 49, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NCAT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:01TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:35TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:04TLSA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:14TLSA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:56TLSA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:02TLSA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:46TLSA Touchdown, up 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:19NCAT Touchdown, down 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:22NCAT Touchdown, down 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:22NCAT Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCATDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.8%
Oluwafemi Bamiro sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 5 yards to the NCAT 20 Oluwafemi Bamiro fumbled, recovered by NCAT Josh Mattocks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
94.8%
Tarik Cohen run for no gain to the NCAT 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
94.8%
Oluwafemi Bamiro run for 6 yds to the NCAT 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
94.8%
Steven Sawicki punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:1695% → 94%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
94.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
94.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
94.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 16 yds to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
94.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+19
94.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 19 yds to the NCAT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
94.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the NCAT 19Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
94.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 16 yds to the NCAT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the NCAT 1Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
94.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 2Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
94.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Deion Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the NCAT 8Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
93.9%
Redford Jones 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.8%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass incomplete to Denzel KeyesSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
93.8%
Tarik Cohen run for 1 yd to the NCAT 24Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
93.9%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass incomplete to Denzel KeyesSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
93.9%
Steven Sawicki punt blocked by McKinley Whitfield blocked by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.3%
James Flanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.9%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass complete to Leroy Hill for 9 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
93.9%
Oluwafemi Bamiro run for 7 yds to the NCAT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.9%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.9%
Tarik Cohen run for 3 yds to the NCAT 44Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+12
93.9%
Tarik Cohen run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
93.8%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass complete to Khris Gardin for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
93.9%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass incomplete to Denzel KeyesSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
93.9%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass incomplete to Michael Weaver Jr.Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
94.0%
Steven Sawicki punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
93.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
93.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
93.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Julian McKnightSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
93.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 7INT TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:417% → 6%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
93.1%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass complete to Denzel Keyes for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+12
93.0%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass complete to Leroy Hill for 12 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
92.9%
Amos Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+1
93.1%
Oluwafemi Bamiro run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+65
94.5%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass intercepted for a TD Kolton Shindelar return for 65 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 8INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
94.7%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass complete to Deshaun McFadden for 4 yds to the NCAT 13Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
94.6%
Amos Williams run for no gain to the NCAT 13Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
94.7%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass intercepted McKinley Whitfield return for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 51 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:044% → 4%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.9%
NC A&T Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCAT 20Similar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
96.0%
Amos Williams run for 2 yds to the NCAT 22Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
96.0%
Lamar Raynard run for no gain to the NCAT 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
96.1%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Amos Williams, broken up by Jesse BrubakerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+10
96.1%
Steven Sawicki punt for 43 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 10 yds to the Tulsa 32 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (Will Barrow) to the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 11 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
96.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 12 yds to the NCAT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
96.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Brodrick Umblance for 2 yds to the NCAT 40Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Jeremy Taylor return for no gain to the NCAT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.1%
Amos Williams run for 1 yd to the NCAT 44Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Lamar Raynard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+5
96.1%
TULSA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NCAT 49Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-6
96.0%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Amos Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the NCAT 43Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.3%
Steven Sawicki punt blocked by McKinley Whitfield blocked by McKinley Whitfield Matt Hickman return for 5 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:2597% → 98%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
97.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 11 yds to the NCAT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
97.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 3 yds to the NCAT 13Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
97.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the NCAT 13Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
97.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
97.8%
NC A&T Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCAT 8Similar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+16
97.8%
Amos Williams run for 1 yd to the NCAT 9 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NCAT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
97.8%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Denzel Keyes for 7 yds to the NCAT 31Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Amos Williams run for no gain to the NCAT 31Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-1
97.6%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Amos Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 30Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+25
97.7%
Steven Sawicki punt for 42 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 25 yds to the TULSA 45 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:1498% → 99%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
98.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the NCAT 48Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+2
98.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the NCAT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
98.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the NCAT 40Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+9
97.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the NCAT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Tard McCoySimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
98.0%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the NCAT 26Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+5
98.0%
EVANS, D. pass intercepted by LOCKHART,Zerius at the NCAT1, LOCKHART,Zerius return to the NCAT31 (PLAGG, E.), PENALTY NCAT offside defense 5 yards to the NCAT21, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.9%
James Flanders run for 21 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.0%
NC A&T Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCAT 21Similar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-2
99.1%
Lamar Raynard run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCAT 19Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+7
99.1%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Leroy Hill for 7 yds to the NCAT 26Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.1%
Lamar Raynard run for 8 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
99.0%
Steven Sawicki punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
99.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.1%
Raymond Taylor run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+52
99.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 52 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
99.3%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Elijah Bell for 37 yds to the TULSA 38 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.2%
Khris Gardin run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
99.2%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Elijah BellSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
99.2%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Khris GardinSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
98.9%
Steven Sawicki punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19FG
11 plays · 79 yds · 1:5799% → 100%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+26
99.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 26 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.4%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Tard McCoySimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+25
99.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 10 yds to the TULSA 43 for a 1ST down NC A&T Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NCAT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.4%
James Flanders run for no gain to the NCAT 28Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.4%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to CARTER, N. (DARDEN,Jamaal), PENALTY NCAT pass interference 11 yards to the NCAT17, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the NCAT 11Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
99.5%
Redford Jones 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 20END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.4%
Amos Williams run for 11 yds to the NCAT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.4%
Amos Williams run for 1 yd to the NCAT 37Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
99.4%
Amos Williams run for 1 yd to the NCAT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
99.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 25 yds to the NCAT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
99.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the NCAT 33 for a 1ST down NC A&T Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCAT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the NCAT 17Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
99.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the NCAT 16Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
99.6%
Redford Jones 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.7%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Elijah Bell for 8 yds to the NCAT 29Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Amos Williams run for 2 yds to the NCAT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Deshaun McFaddenSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
99.7%
Amos Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCAT 28Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Amos WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Steven Sawicki punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
99.7%
James Flanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Ryan Rubley pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Marquis WillisSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Khris Gardin at the NCAT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Amos Williams run for no gain to the NCAT 27Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.8%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Leroy Hill for 7 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Elijah Bell for 8 yds to the NCAT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.8%
Lamar Raynard run for 1 yd to the NCAT 43Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-1
99.8%
Oluwafemi Bamiro run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 42 Oluwafemi Bamiro fumbled, recovered by NCAT Amos WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.8%
NC A&T Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCAT 37Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass incomplete to Malik WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+10
99.8%
Steven Sawicki punt for 42 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for 10 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
99.8%
Raymond Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Ryan Rubley run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+13
99.8%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 13 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.8%
Raymond Taylor run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+32
99.8%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 32 yds to the NCAT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
99.8%
Raymond Taylor run for 12 yds to the NCAT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.8%
Ryan Rubley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCAT 9Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Rob Riederer for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 26TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Isaiah Hicklin run for no gain to the NCAT 20Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Amos Williams run for 5 yds to the NCAT 25Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+75
99.9%
Isaiah Hicklin pass complete to Malik Wilson for 75 yds for a TD, (Cody Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Isaiah Hicklin pass incomplete to Khris Gardin, broken up by Micheal ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Amos Williams run for no gain to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-10
99.9%
Lamar Raynard sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 10 yards to the NCAT 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 44
+60
99.9%
Steven Sawicki punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCAT 36 , Keidrien Wadley returns for 60 yds to the NCAT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29MISSED FG
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Rowdy Simon run for 5 yds to the NCAT 31Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Bishop Louie for 4 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Rowdy Simon run for 5 yds to the NCAT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
99.9%
SIMON, R. rush for 1 yard to the NCAT21 (REYNOLDS,Julius), PENALTY TLS holding (PAGONIS, A.) 10 yards to the NCAT32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Bishop Louie for 8 yds to the NCAT 24Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass incomplete to Bishop Louie, broken up by Zerius LockhartSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 12
OPP 24
-3
99.9%
Ryan Rubley sacked by Jermaine Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NCAT 27Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+44
99.9%
Redford Jones 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 30TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Amos Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 26Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Amos Williams run for 3 yds to the NCAT 29Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+21
99.9%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Khris Gardin for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Malik WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
50
+1
99.9%
Amos Williams run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+16
99.9%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Elijah Bell for 16 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.9%
Demetrius Fairley run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Elijah Bell for 32 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Cody Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Jeremy Brady run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Ryan Rubley run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass incomplete to Randall SmithSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Jeremy Brady run for 4 yds to the NCAT 49Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Malik WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Leroy HillSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Lamar Raynard pass incomplete to Malik WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Steven Sawicki punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Rowdy Simon run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Avery Gragg for 10 yds to the NCAT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.9%
Rowdy Simon run for 8 yds to the NCAT 39Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Rowdy Simon run for 1 yd to the NCAT 38Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-10
99.9%
SIMON, R. rush for 4 yards to the NCAT34 (PATRICK,Joshua;WILLIAMS,J.), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the NCAT48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-3
99.9%
Ryan Rubley sacked by Joshua Patrick and Julian McKnight for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 34TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
100.0%
Demetrius Fairley run for 25 yds to the NCAT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
Demetrius Fairley run for 1 yd to the NCAT 46Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+40
100.0%
Demetrius Fairley run for 40 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
100.0%
Demetrius Fairley run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Lamar Raynard run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cody Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 35END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:04
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 51 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+2
TD · Q1 2:35
Oluwafemi Bamiro pass intercepted for a TD Kolton Shindelar return for 65 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 6:56
James Flanders run for 21 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com