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LIB

Liberty 14 at SMU 29

SMU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:26 · Trey Turner punt for 26 yds, downed at the SMU 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+27.8Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:44: Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +2.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:19: Braeden West 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SMU win probability +7.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:35: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Dante Shells for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +11.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:47: Josh Williams 27 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:18: Stephen Calvert pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wyatt return for 34 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 2:48SMU 4th & 2 at LIB 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:47SMU 4th & 6 at LIB 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:34SMU 4th & 5 at LIB 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:26LIB 4th & 6 at SMU 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:10SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:01LIB 4th & 2 at SMU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−1.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:59LIB 4th & 2 at SMU 42, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−1.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33SMU 4th & 5 at LIB 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:04SMU 4th & 10 at LIB 33, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:20SMU 4th & 9 at LIB 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−12.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:57LIB 4th & 20 at SMU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−6.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−12.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−4.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:07LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 38, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:47SMU 4th & 10 at LIB 10, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:07SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:44LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:19SMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:35LIB Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:18SMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5387% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
87.4%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
87.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.4%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
87.4%
James Proche run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+8
87.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 8 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
87.4%
Braeden West run for 26 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
87.2%
Braeden West run for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2313% → 16%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.0%
Stephon Masha run for 9 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
86.9%
Todd Macon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
87.0%
Todd Macon run for 8 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
86.9%
Stephon Masha pass complete to Damian King for 7 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
86.9%
Carrington Mosley run for no gain to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+24
86.9%
Stephon Masha pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 24 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.8%
Stephon Masha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
86.8%
Stephon Masha pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 11 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
86.8%
Carrington Mosley run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+8
86.8%
Carrington Mosley run for 8 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
86.8%
Carrington Mosley run for 6 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3INT
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
85.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 14 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
85.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 9 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
85.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
85.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 29 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
85.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-4
85.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
85.4%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Newman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
84.3%
Stephon Masha pass complete to Todd Macon for 7 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
84.1%
Todd Macon run for 2 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Stephon Masha pass intercepted Jordan Wyatt return for no gain to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3985% → 84%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
84.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
84.6%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+19
84.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 19 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
84.8%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+1
84.8%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Liber 7Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
84.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
84.3%
Josh Williams 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.1%
Carrington Mosley run for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
83.6%
Carrington Mosley run for 6 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
83.6%
Stephon Masha pass intercepted Horace Richardson return for 16 yds to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
84.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
84.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
84.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
83.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3017% → 16%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
83.5%
Stephon Masha pass complete to Canon Smith for 5 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+1
83.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
83.7%
Stephon Masha pass incomplete to Damian King, broken up by Demerick GarySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
84.0%
Trey Turner punt for 38 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:1484% → 85%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.8%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
83.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 5 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+16
83.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Liber 45 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Solomon McGinty) to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
84.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 18 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
84.1%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 15
OPP 17
0
84.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+10
83.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 10 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
83.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
84.6%
Josh Williams 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
82.4%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
82.4%
Carrington Mosley run for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
82.6%
Stephon Masha pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
83.3%
Trey Turner punt for 26 yds, downed at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
84.3%
Jordan Carmouche run for 6 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
84.3%
Jordan Carmouche run for 7 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Chris TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
84.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-5
84.0%
Ben Hicks sacked by Juwan Wells for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 27 SMU Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
83.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:4217% → 16%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Dante Shells, broken up by Zelt MinorSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
83.4%
CALVERT, S. pass incomplete to PARKER, Z., PENALTY SMU pass interference (JOHNSON, Kevin) 15 yards to the SMU48, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
81.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
81.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+7
82.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 7 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4686% → 85%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
85.8%
Jordan Carmouche run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
85.9%
Jordan Carmouche run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+47
85.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 47 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
86.1%
Jordan Carmouche run for 1 yd to the Liber 6Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+50
85.1%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Tyrin Holloway return for 50 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
50
0
82.2%
Stephon Masha pass incomplete to Dante ShellsSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
50
+7
82.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
82.4%
Stephon Masha pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
83.1%
Trey Turner punt for 31 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
83.9%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+6
83.9%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
84.0%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., dropped pass, PENALTY LIBERTY roughing passer (MCGINTY, S.) 15 yards to the SMU38, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
84.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 14 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
85.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
85.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
84.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
84.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 40 yds, downed at the Liber 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:5017% → 16%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
83.5%
Carrington Mosley run for 2 yds to the Liber 5Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
83.7%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+7
83.9%
Carrington Mosley run for 7 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.4%
Stephon Masha pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
80.9%
Carrington Mosley run for 1 yd to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
81.5%
MASHA, S. pass incomplete to FARROW, B.J., PENALTY SMU pass interference (RICHARDSON, H.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY45, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
80.0%
Stephon Masha pass complete to Dante Shells for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
-10
81.1%
MASHA, S. rush for 9 yards to the SMU49 (WYATT, Jordan), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (CAMPBELL, A) 10 yards to the LIBERTY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+4
81.5%
Carrington Mosley run for 4 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+8
82.1%
Stephon Masha pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 8 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
82.2%
Trey Turner punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:0082% → 90%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
82.1%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+14
82.3%
HICKS, Ben pass intercepted by NEWMAN, N. at the SMU39, NEWMAN, N. return to the SMU39, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (NEWMAN, N.) 14 yards to the SMU34, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
89.7%
Braeden West 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
88.0%
Stephon Masha pass intercepted Rodney Clemons return for 21 yds to the Liber 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
90.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
90.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
90.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
90.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
90.1%
Braeden West run for no gain to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 10
OPP 33
-4
89.4%
Ben Hicks sacked by Juwan Wells and Will Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:3212% → 22%
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
88.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Parker for 12 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Dante ShellsSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
87.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-8
87.4%
Stephen Calvert sacked by RC Cox for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+15
91.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
89.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 16 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
88.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
88.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+8
89.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kendall Couamin for 8 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
88.7%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+4
89.0%
Stephen Calvert run for 4 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
77.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Dante Shells for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:1580% → 80%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
79.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 9 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.3%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
80.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 9 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
81.8%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the LIBERTY 47 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
83.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for no gain to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+14
82.4%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to GAILLIARD, M. (JACKSON, Cor.), PENALTY LIBERTY roughing passer 14 yards to the LIBERTY14, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
83.5%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-10
83.1%
HICKS, Ben pass complete to KAUFMAN, M. for 9 yards to the LIBERTY6, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SMU holding (WILDS, Bryce) 10 yards to the LIBERTY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 25
+8
82.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 8 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+4
81.2%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
80.4%
Josh Williams 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23MISSED FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:2320% → 18%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.2%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+47
80.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 47 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
74.5%
CALVERT, S. pass complete to FARROW, B.J. for 30 yards to the SMU0, clock 12:15, PENALTY LIBERTY ineligible downfield on pass (HENDERMAN, M.) 5 yards to the SMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
76.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+5
76.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Dante Shells for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
76.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 11 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
74.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Carrington Mosley for 6 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
74.1%
Carrington Mosley run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
76.1%
Carrington Mosley run for 2 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
74.1%
Carrington Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
74.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
76.6%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Michael Badejo for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
81.8%
Alex Probert 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Justin Lawler TEAM return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.8%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
84.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
84.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
85.2%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-2
85.3%
Ben Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
83.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Nick NewmanSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
83.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
82.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
82.4%
Stephen Calvert run for 5 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
81.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Dante Shells, broken up by Jackson MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+59
83.4%
Trey Turner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 18 SMU Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1588% → 97%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+48
88.3%
Braeden West run for 48 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
90.8%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+8
90.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
92.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 9Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
93.1%
Braeden West run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
91.8%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
96.8%
Josh Williams 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27INT TD
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:295% → 1%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.3%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 19Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+34
99.2%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wyatt return for 34 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:35
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Dante Shells for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 10:19
Braeden West 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+7.4
TD · Q4 0:18
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wyatt return for 34 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com