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NAVY

Navy 21 at Tulane 14

TULN
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:51 · Glen Cuiellette sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior−1.1Home team on offense−22.0Garbage-time factor−10.2Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:52: Shawn White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring PAT MISSED) — NAVY win probability +13.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:19: Dontrell Hilliard run for 36 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +24.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:13: Josh Rounds run for 2 yds to the Tulan 36 — TULN win probability +10.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:57: Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Worth pass to Toneo Gulley for Two-Point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +38.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:04: TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 21 — NAVY win probability +10.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:22NAVY 4th & 28 at NAVY 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:03TULN 4th & 4 at NAVY 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:07TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07TULN 4th & 15 at TULN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:58NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:15TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.8%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:15TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:46TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.7%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:27TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−4.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:39TULN 4th & 6 at NAVY 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−13.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:51TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:28NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:22TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:52NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:19TULN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:57NAVY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.6%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
27.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+3
27.6%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 3 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
27.6%
Johnathan Brantley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
27.6%
Zachary Block punt for 44 yds , Craig Scott returns for no gain to the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.3%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
28.4%
Will Worth pass complete to Craig Scott for 7 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
28.3%
TULANE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
28.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
28.2%
Toneo Gulley run for 3 yds to the Tulan 35 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulan 45Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 17
OPP 45
0
28.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 17
OPP 45
0
28.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Donnie Lewis Jr.Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 17
OPP 45
-11
28.4%
Will Worth sacked by Nico Marley for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 28
OWN 44
0
28.4%
Erik Harris punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
29.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 9 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
29.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.5%
Johnathan Brantley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
29.5%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 5 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+9
29.5%
Johnathan Brantley run for 9 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-12
29.8%
Johnathan Brantley sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulan 34Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 22
OWN 34
+7
29.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 7 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+11
29.4%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 11 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
29.6%
Zachary Block punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
17 plays · 94 yds · 7:1769% → 72%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
31.5%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+6
31.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 6 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+6
31.6%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
31.3%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
31.3%
Tre Walker run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
31.3%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.2%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+19
31.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
50
-2
30.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
31.0%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+21
33.5%
Dishan Romine run for 21 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
32.0%
TULANE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulan 26Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+4
32.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-2
32.0%
Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+18
33.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 18 yds to the Tulan 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.1%
Chris High run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0630% → 41%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.9%
Josh Rounds run for 12 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.2%
Johnathan Brantley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
30.1%
Josh Rounds run for 16 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
31.3%
Josh Rounds run for 18 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
32.1%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-11
32.1%
[GUN], BRANTLEY, J. rush quarterback draw for no gain to the NAVY25 (GILMAN, Alohi), PENALTY TLN holding (TAYLOR, Chris) 11 yards to the NAVY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+26
30.6%
Johnathan Brantley run for 26 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
32.1%
[GUN], THOMPSON, L. rush over right end for no gain to the NAVY10 (GILMAN, Alohi), PENALTY TLN illegal formation 5 yards to the NAVY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+13
32.0%
Terren Encalade run for 13 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.0%
Josh Rounds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.6%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.6%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
37.1%
Will Worth sacked by Nico Marley for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.9%
Erik Harris punt for 32 yds , Dontrell Hilliard returns for 3 yds to the Tulan 28 TULANE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Tulan 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
39.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 6 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
40.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
40.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Tulan 45Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
39.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
40.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
40.6%
Johnathan Brantley pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
39.4%
Johnathan Brantley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 10
OWN 48
-5
38.8%
TULANE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 43Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
38.2%
Zachary Block punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
37.4%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
37.6%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+7
37.3%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
36.9%
Will Worth sacked by Peter Woullard for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+5
37.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Shawn White for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+14
38.2%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
35.4%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
34.8%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
35.2%
Shawn White run for 2 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
36.3%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
37.3%
Erik Harris punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
43.2%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-4
43.1%
Lazedrick Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:0061% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
38.9%
Chris High run for 26 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
36.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 14 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
35.3%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Tulan 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
35.3%
Tre Walker run for 5 yds to the Tulan 30 Tre Walker fumbled, forced by Jarrod Franklin, recovered by Tulan Ade ArunaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
43.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
44.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
42.9%
Johnathan Brantley run for 5 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+5
43.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 5 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
46.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 42Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-5
44.6%
Johnathan Brantley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 37Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
42.4%
Johnathan Brantley pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Micah ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
41.3%
Zachary Block punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5358% → 76%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
41.8%
Will Worth run for 18 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
39.1%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
38.8%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+29
40.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 14 yds to the TULANE 41 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Richard Allen) to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-14
36.8%
Joshua Walker run for 1 yd to the Tulan 25 NAVY Penalty, illegal block (Adam West) to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 24
OPP 40
+14
39.2%
Will Worth run for 14 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
37.2%
Will Worth run for 11 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
36.8%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
36.8%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
38.2%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Tulan 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.4%
Shawn White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:2731% → 60%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
31.2%
Josh Rounds run for 1 yd to the Tulan 25Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
31.0%
Josh Rounds run for 10 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Johnathan Brantley run for no gain to the Tulan 35Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.4%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
31.4%
Johnathan Brantley pass complete to Devon Breaux for 5 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+4
32.0%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
34.6%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
35.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
59.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 36 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1947% → 44%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.6%
Dishan Romine run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
52.7%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
55.8%
Erik Harris punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tulan 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-5
57.2%
[GUN], ROUNDS, Josh rush draw play for 5 yards to the TLN25 (THOMAS, Micah), PENALTY TLN holding (LEGLUE, John) 10 yards to the TLN10, NO PLAY, PENALTY TLN personal foul (TAYLOR, Chris) 5 yards to the TLN5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 25
OWN 5
+3
56.5%
Johnathan Brantley run for 3 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 22
OWN 8
0
56.1%
Johnathan Brantley pass incomplete to Terren EncaladeSimilar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+10
54.6%
Terren Encalade run for 10 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
54.3%
Zachary Block punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
51.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 23 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
48.8%
Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 34 Will Worth fumbled, recovered by Tulan Peter WoullardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:3459% → 64%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
59.2%
Josh Rounds run for 2 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
60.0%
Josh Rounds run for 2 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+6
59.0%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 6 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
62.3%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+20
62.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 20 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
65.5%
Johnathan Brantley pass incomplete to Devon Breaux, broken up by Daiquan ThomassonSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
65.3%
Johnathan Brantley run for 4 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
63.5%
Johnathan Brantley run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
64.1%
Andrew DiRocco 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:4242% → 92%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
57.7%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+9
55.0%
Dishan Romine run for 9 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
53.3%
Will Worth run for 31 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
50.5%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
50.5%
Dishan Romine run for 5 yds to the Tulan 14Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
52.6%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
50.5%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the Tulan 3Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
52.7%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.6%
Will Worth run for no gain to the Tulan 1Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.1%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Worth pass to Toneo Gulley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
20.2%
Johnathan Brantley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
19.7%
Johnathan Brantley pass incomplete to Larry DaceSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
18.7%
Glen Cuiellette run for no gain to the Tulan 21 Glen Cuiellette fumbled, recovered by Tulan Glen CuielletteSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 11
OWN 21
-4
18.0%
Glen Cuiellette sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
7.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 14
OPP 21
-4
8.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 18
OPP 25
-5
8.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:57
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Worth pass to Toneo Gulley for Two-Point Conversion)
-38
TD · Q3 0:19
Dontrell Hilliard run for 36 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+24.3
TD · Q3 4:52
Shawn White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring PAT MISSED)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com